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earthlight

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really because it did that at 12z also...

 

The totals were an anomaly. The track wasn't at this point. 

 

I have some doubts about the 3FT totals predicted by the 0Z Euro. NWS mentioned that they had some issues with the totals. We'll have to see if they're right when the higher resolution models come in and show us what the bands will look like.  It's that or the Euro continues to show 3FT totals in NY Metro and every other model gets on board with the totals (not the track or strength). 

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Mirrors the GFS pretty well. That Euro run was an anomaly with its totals.

The 2.5 total were replicated from its 12z run by the 0Z Euro

It was supported by the CMC 2.5 into KNYC

And now the 6z GFS is 1.5 plus into KNYC and 2 at Islip .

If 2 shows up , its 12 to 1 regardless everyone gets smoked.

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The 2.5 total were replicated from its 12z run by the 0Z Euro

It was supported by the CMC 2.5 into KNYC

And now the 6z GFS is 1.5 plus into KNYC and 2 at Islip .

If 2 shows up , its 12 to 1 regardless everyone gets smoked.

 

Yeah I'm being a bit of a conservative, cautious ***hole with these solutions. I really want them to occur considering how historic they'd be, but I won't be able to appreciate them until it's in my front yard. They're really goddamn high.

 

Maybe if the 12Z Euro continues to the 2+ ft trend I'll relent, but right now I've been burned one time too many (March 01, March 05) to respect this type of solution this far out. 

 

EDIT:

 

Especially when Upton and Mt. Holly have had trouble with the Euro in particular over the past day. I will say that the Euro and GFS had similar 1ft+ solutions days before the little storm we had Saturday. Maybe the Saturday storm messed with Tuesday's storm solution and only improved once Saturday's storm left the area? 

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Yeah I'm being a bit of a conservative, cautious ***hole with these solutions. I really want them to occur considering how historic they'd be, but I won't be able to appreciate them until it's in my front yard. They're really goddamn high.

Maybe if the 12Z Euro continues to the 2+ ft trend I'll relent, but right now I've been burned one time too many (March 01, March 05) to respect this type of solution this far out.

Just looked at 6z GEFS. 1.75 now goes back into CNJ

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At this point, it would be more informative/fun and exciting to just watch a major network for live coverage of the BLIZZARD than the weather channel. It's not even close to the good old days in the 80s and 90s. Once I found Wright Weather BB back in 2000, then EasternWx, I never needed the weather channel again!

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TWC has 12-18" for all of the NYC area, NNJ, parts of long island and 18-24" eastern LI and SNE.....While NWS has 24-36 for the entire area. I do feel that TWC will be closer to reality here, but its funny that if the two outlets were calling for 4-8/8-16, one of them would be bashed for being over/under.....But since 18-24 and 24-36 are both such high amounts, it just kinda goes down as "a ton of snow regardless"

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DT is a very talented MET IMHO. He can be a little rough around the edges regarding his dialogue, but he doesn't wear snow goggles and if he's onboard usually you know we are going to get it good! Of course he busts, but who doesn't?

I think he was one of the first METS to point out how dangerous these MM are and that was prior to the 1st EURO to show LI getting this BLIZZARD.

-Jason

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Hi guys.  Would appreciate your help.  Anyone know where Craig Allen posts on Facebook?  I follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/CraigAllenWx) but whenever I click on his links to FB posts I cannot access them.  

 

I consider Craig to be in the top tier of NYC mets.  He is a veteran of over 30 years and really knows his stuff, including mesoscale influences such as the Long Island microclimates.

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Hi guys.  Would appreciate your help.  Anyone know where Craig Allen posts on Facebook?  I follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/CraigAllenWx) but whenever I click on his links to FB posts I cannot access them.  

 

I consider Craig to be in the top tier of NYC mets.  He is a veteran of over 30 years and really knows his stuff, including mesoscale influences such as the Long Island microclimates.

I follow him here: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Craig-Allen-On-Air-Inc/230609267719

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"Craig Allen on-air inc"

Hi guys. Would appreciate your help. Anyone know where Craig Allen posts on Facebook? I follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/CraigAllenWx) but whenever I click on his links to FB posts I cannot access them.

I consider Craig to be in the top tier of NYC mets. He is a veteran of over 30 years and really knows his stuff, including mesoscale influences such as the Long Island microclimates.

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Will be curious what he has to say about his North Jersey/NYC bust.

yes and  to be fair many busted BUT he gets called out because he ripped TWC in his usual style for predicting 8 -12 in NYC - the sad thing was it was becoming obvious --which I started talking about in the observation thread about the same time-  something was going wrong with the storm for NYC and west....

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Been following DT for years & he's an excellent met BUT if I were looking to hire a private service I wouldn't go near him because of his unprofessional antics - such as what he did with TWC and his long time blasting of JB & Accuwx.  He is one angry dude.

Always fun to watch when he's wrong and the folks he bashes end up right.

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