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earthlight

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Steve D is saying this threat is done for our area. I got in an argument about giving up so early. He also said that the pattern isn't good lol

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Steve D is saying this threat is done for our area. I got in an argument about giving up so early. He also said that the pattern isn't good lol

JBs new vid , agress south as well NAO too NEG , its a shunt anth , its not about how how much time ,

you have to look at the set up , it argues for a SE track

The Euro - its ensembles and a lot of modeling keeps it south .

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JBs new vid , agress south as well NAO too NEG , its a shunt anth , its not about how how much time ,

you have to look at the set up , it argues for a SE track

The Euro - its ensembles and a lot of modeling keeps it south .

 

Well if that's true then that's it, winter is done as far as snow threats go until next December or November, October? who knows. 

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I know no one likes Henry M but he thinks that the models will trend more north and put D.C to NYC in the bullseye because of the transition phase from -NAO to + NAO.

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Euro ensembles from DT

* ALERT ***ALERT 12Z EURO ENSEMBLES FOR MARCH 6-7... shows a BIGGER LOW.. CLOSER TO THE COAST ... COLDER TEMPS ...MORE PRECIP.. MORE SNOW...

at 144 hrs 150 hrs 156 hrs 162 hrs I cannot show you all these maps

up to 0.35" gets into DCA PHL NJ as far N as NE NJ
all of central and eastern VA lower MD eastern shore sees
0.75" liquid ...

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From DT,

 

** ALERT ***ALERT 12Z EURO ENSEMBLES FOR MARCH 6-7... shows a BIGGER LOW.. CLOSER TO THE COAST ... COLDER TEMPS ...MORE PRECIP.. MORE SNOW...

at 144 hrs 150 hrs 156 hrs 162 hrs I cannot show you all these maps

up to 0.35" gets into DCA PHL NJ as far N as NE NJ
all of central and eastern VA lower MD eastern shore sees
0.75" liquid ...

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It always gets me a bit nervous when the Euro ensembles are further west than the Op. Just like we have seen many times this season....a 6 or 7 day out model output almost never verifies. There will be big changes all of the place with this during the next 3 days.

 

 

From DT,

 

** ALERT ***ALERT 12Z EURO ENSEMBLES FOR MARCH 6-7... shows a BIGGER LOW.. CLOSER TO THE COAST ... COLDER TEMPS ...MORE PRECIP.. MORE SNOW...

at 144 hrs 150 hrs 156 hrs 162 hrs I cannot show you all these maps

up to 0.35" gets into DCA PHL NJ as far N as NE NJ
all of central and eastern VA lower MD eastern shore sees
0.75" liquid ...

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There is no block:

 

Steven DiMartino@nynjpaweather

@weather_talk: @njshore23 woah..wait... its an omega block... thats not to progressive silly” That's another thing, this is no block

 

The AO was -1.613 on 2/28. It is forecast to drop toward or even below -3 over the next 5-8 days. There most definitely is blocking.

 

Indeed, on account of the magnitude of blocking currently being forecast, the March 6-7 storm is currently forecast to be steered around the block well south of the NYC metro area by much of the guidance.

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I can't believe the media is hyping this already

 

Large snowstorm could slam N.J. next week

 

A storm system currently over Alaska has the potential to pound New Jersey with blizzard-like conditions next week, meteorologists are warning.

 

Though the developing system is still thousands of miles away, experts are following a few likely tracks, one of which plants it firmly in the Northeast. If the storm lands in New Jersey, it could bring high winds and heavy snowfall by Wednesday.

"It has a lot of potential, but we're outside the realm of definite with it," said Greg Heavener, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.

 

Heavener said there is not yet a worst-case scenario, but it could be as bad as the blizzard that hit New England on Feb. 8 and dropped between two and three feet of snow across Massachusetts and Connecticut.

As far as likely snowfall totals in New Jersey, Heavener said it was too early to make predictions.

"Precipitation levels are track-dependent. If it moves like it is now it could bring an inch or two across the DelMarVa region, but if it heads farther north it could be more like a blizzard [for New Jersey]," Heavener said.

Mike Pigott, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com, said the whole Northeast is at risk for major snowfall.

"There's a good chance for an East Coast snowstorm," Pigott said. "Somewhere in the Northeast is likely to get blizzard conditions."

Heavener was less enthusiastic for the Garden State's shot at snow.

"Really it depends onuth of if it stays so our area, or if it can begin to head more northeast along the coast. The next couple of days we're going to be watching where the models put it," he said.

The storm system, like the recent spate of blizzards that walloped the Midwest, will drop from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest this weekend, meteorologists said. It will then move into the West, though it's not expected to affect that region as much as earlier storms did.

 

Once it crosses the Rocky Mountains, it will begin to form a low-pressure system. The storm will be moderate until it draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies, meteorologists said.

"The question once it forms is, where will it head?" said Heavener.

Temperatures are going to be in the low 40s next week, which is not ideal for accumulating snow, Heavener said. But Pigott added that the snow could move in late at night when it's colder, and a more northern storm would bring cold air with it, dropping the forecasted temperatures considerably.

Dispensing with the National Weather Service's cautious tone, AccuWeather.com issued a press release today noting similarities between this storm and the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962, which caused historic devastation in New Jersey.

Next week's storm could linger over the region for two days, Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams said, which is shorter than the Ash Wednesday storm but could still lead to considerable precipitation.

If it does pause above New Jersey instead of darting out to sea, Abrams warned that the mix of surge, wind, rain and snow could coincide with high tides and bring considerable coastal flooding.

"We're five-plus days away, and with the way this winter's been acting, nothing is a lock," Heavener said.

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Joe cioffi on,his facebook page going with significant snows up to rt 287. Up to foot in central and south jersey!

Really?

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Really?

Alan Kasper says rain perhaps mixing with snow in some spots

 

Steve D going with trace to 2"

 

DT calling out admins claiming the Euro ensembles are north of the operational as liars

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Alan Kasper says rain perhaps mixing with snow in some spots

 

He's also said that most of NJ would see all rain for the 11/26, 12/24, 12/26, and the 2/8 threats. He's not had a very good track record with several winter storms this season because he went overly warm with the thermal profiles.

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Alan Kasper says rain perhaps mixing with snow in some spots

He just seems like he is not into it anymore. Also gotta love Steve d putting out a snow map, after saying over and over it was going to miss

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Dt is essentially saying we are liars and essentially jokes and that the euro ens are not north. Also he is getting into arguments within the comments.

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How is dt going to spin it when Boston gets a foot and dca 3? He talks so much crap about this forum, dear god man get a gripe

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Dt is essentially saying we are liars and essentially jokes and that the euro ens are not north. Also he is getting into arguments within the comments.

He's losing it these past few days. If this thing goes north and VA/DC get shafted he'll probably have to go away for a while

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He just seems like he is not into it anymore. Also gotta love Steve d putting out a snow map, after saying over and over it was going to miss

To be fair this was only through Wednesday. He did talk about the wind and storm in general but didn't go into details about Wednesday night/Thursday and who could see alot of snow

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To be fair this was only through Wednesday. He did talk about the wind and storm in general but didn't go into details about Wednesday night/Thursday and who could see alot of snow

Oh okay. I remember as a kid before smart phones ingot updates off 101.5. He would go into so much detail

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