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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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John Bolaris, a well respected Philly met going for cold and snow

-

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/John_Bolaris_winter_weather_outlook.html

His key assumptions:

 

- Weak to moderate El Niño conditions will develop

- AO- winter

- PNA+ winter

 

Just looking at seasonal snowfall (his estimate is 30"-40"), it might make sense given his above assumptions. Since 1950-51, 35.3% of winters with a winter (DJF) AO average of -1 or below had 30" or more snow in Philly. The probability was even higher for the subset that saw El Niño conditions.

 

But what if he's wrong about the AO?

 

It should be noted that both the SAI and OPI argue for a positive AO winter.

 

4.4% of winters (courtesy of the February 1983 blizzard) with an AO average > 0 had 30" or more snowfall and none had 30" or more snowfall during a winter average AO of +0.25 or above.

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His key assumptions:

 

- Weak to moderate El Niño conditions will develop

- AO- winter

- PNA+ winter

 

Just looking at seasonal snowfall (his estimate is 30"-40"), it might make sense given his above assumptions. Since 1950-51, 35.3% of winters with a winter (DJF) AO average of -1 or below had 30" or more snow in Philly. The probability was even higher for the subset that saw El Niño conditions.

 

But what if he's wrong about the AO?

 

It should be noted that both the SAI and OPI argue for a positive AO winter.

 

4.4% of winters (courtesy of the February 1983 blizzard) with an AO average > 0 had 30" or more snowfall and none had 30" or more snowfall during a winter average AO of +0.25 or above.

Good points.  If the AO is positive, his forecast won't verify.   Big wildcard as always.

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Euro is showing blocking developing at the very end of the month into December - all 3 major indicies forecasts are also going in the right direction for cold and snow to begin December - Accuweather's winter outlook has a chance of busting early as they predicted a mild December........

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Predicting how much snow is going to fall in a winter around here is extremely difficult because even in years when the pattern is lousy, it can set itself up right for just a few days and suddenly everyone gets a 20 inch storm...which is at least 50% of the average for the whole winter for most in this forum (from say south of a line from Danbury to Newton, NJ).  1982-93 and 2005-06 immediately come to mind. 

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most of the lousy winters we had saw great storm tracks either to early in the season or in early Spring...1996-97 was a lousy winter for NYC...But in early December 1996 there were two consecutive storms that had mostly rain but heavy snow near Boston...April 1st fooled me when my basement got flooded while Boston got clobbered with snow...If that exact pattern came in January/February we could have gotton a lot of snow...except for recent years December's biggest storms were mostly rain in NYC...

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DT issued his winter forecast today. He says that December might end up being the warmest month of the winter. He thinks this could be a severe winter for the east with really cold temps and a lot of snow.

 

If that part ends up being correct, then I can't see how the rest of the winter would be conducive for meaningful snow and cold...

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January and February ?

The first test of this new pattern that we are anticipating next week is if the progged coastal storm that has been showing up on the GFS the last few runs actually develops and gives us the amount of precip advertised right now. The trend on the GFS the last couple months has been for the GFS showing a large precip event in the longer range then as the event approaches it cuts back the amounts.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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  • 2 weeks later...

Euro is showing blocking developing at the very end of the month into December - all 3 major indicies forecasts are also going in the right direction for cold and snow to begin December - Accuweather's winter outlook has a chance of busting early as they predicted a mild December........

Looks like I was correct about Accuweather's mild slow start December forecast busting .............and we are doing this with just a negative EPO - WPO in our favor the other 3 are not in the favorable positions - so I was wrong about that but not the cold snowy December

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Bill Evans on WABC this morning went with 3"-6" snow almost areawide. 1-3" well N&W. I think that's robust, this early.

 

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/video?id=9353850

after what happened yesterday with the snow totals forecasts busting way too low to the south of us - I think we have to leave all possibilities on the table it will probably end up being another NOW forecasting scenario with a couple of surprises thrown in for good or bad measure ....

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