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Snow_Miser

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  1. Didn't know you were a skeptic too at one point. I accepted the mainstream conclusions of the science, when it became abundantly clear that we were still warming, and there was no sign of any prospective cooling. Learning more about the subject didn't hurt either. It's been over 3 years since I recognized this. There are no energy accumulation lags. Zero. It is like saying that a pot on a stove will continue to gain energy, even after the burner has been turned off. It makes no physical sense. So the continued upper ocean heat accumulation is totally inconsistent with reduced solar activity. It is just not causing current climate change. Getting back on topic, a pretty poor pattern for the Pacific side of the ice is on the way. The 12z ECMWF is advertising well above normal 850 hPa temperatures in the medium range and beyond for that region. Kind of surprised we still saw sizable losses over the last few days, despite cooler than normal 850 hPa temperatures. Unless recent losses have all come from the Hudson Bay. I think persistence type predictions of the sea ice minimum, like June melt ponding have the potential to be more inaccurate than usual this year. With the ice being so thin, it won't take as much to see sizable losses in the coming couple of months.
  2. The higher thicknesses relative to normal are getting exported in the Fram, according to the May PIOMAS update. Across the Arctic Basin, lots of thinner than normal ice. From Zack Labe.
  3. According to Coumou et al., it is actually slightly higher than 3:1, at around 4:1. The Coumou et al. projections have the ratio of heat records to cold records increasing to 12:1 in 23 years. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0668-1
  4. The late Dr. Gray asserted in this paper that we would see a cooling from 1998 continue to about 2025. He still has eight years to go, but it isn't looking too great for his prediction.
  5. It means that past estimates of climate trends related to sea level were too conservative, which is diametrically opposed to what you are trying to argue here.
  6. Sea Levels have generally been rising faster than expected. http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035;jsessionid=7F624C54CF9903E1B980AEB5B6CE3F81.c3.iopscience.cld.iop.org
  7. Welcome back Friv. Not a pretty depiction by ensemble forecasts over the next 10 days for the Pacific side.
  8. Record low volume continued into March. It would be impressive at this point if September also did not see record low volume.
  9. WeatherBell will finish off at +0.56 for the month. Extremely impressive surface warmth without a major +ENSO event. Odds are we finish higher than February, anomaly wise on GISS. The +0.56 anomaly roughly translates to a +1.06 to a +1.26 anomaly on GISS, or a +1.16 median estimate for March 2017. The entire range of estimates fall short of the March 2016 value of +1.28. Odds are, April finishes with a lower global temperature anomaly relative to March. The GFS is currently depicting a drop to levels comparable to what was observed earlier this month.
  10. March is going to finish on par with, or even a little higher anomaly wise, relative to February. With WeatherBell CFSv2 dailies surging up to +0.7 and rising, this has now allowed for the monthly anomaly to spike to +0.51. February finished at +0.52. Easily conceivable that we finish higher than that.
  11. Noteworthy how warm we are without a +ENSO event chubbs. Not out of the realm of possibilities that we actually attain a higher number than 2016 if a moderate +ENSO event develops later this year.
  12. It is looking more and more likely that we have jumped to a new baseline, consistent with natural variability superimposed on the anthropogenic warming trend. If we get even moderate +ENSO conditions later this year, I think we have a shot at reaching 2016 levels once again in 2018. Very early, but March is starting off with an even higher global temperature anomaly of +0.59 on WeatherBell.
  13. Virtually certain now that the WeatherBell CFSv2 will finish with an anomaly of +0.52 for February. This would make it the second warmest February ever in the NCEP record, second only to last year.
  14. WeatherBell CFSv2 update, with just under 2/3 of the month in: +0.52, with dailies continuing to increase. That would easily place us at the 2nd warmest February in that record, with only last year beating this year's numbers.