Mophstymeo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Dari alexander just asked nick Gregory what's with all the rain I thought you said it was going to be cold and snowy and he said it's onlyJanuary 5t be prepared. Will believe it when I shovel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 So will I mophstymeo!!!! I was just saying what I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 So will I mophstymeo!!!! I was just saying what I heard. I know. I'm just not convinced any one of these mets knows what they're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Either am i after the way this winter is going so far!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 It sounds like he's trying really hard to convince himself and others that we are still going to see a rocking winter. He made a few good points and he always lays things out in such a way that instantly attracts weenies towards him. He knows how to manipulate data to please his subscribers and I guarantee he will make up something that will justify his forecast if it turns out the opposite of what he expects. But yet he fails to mention the fact that his call for "quite a storm from the plains to the east coast" on day 7 or 8 (which would be this weekend) that the models would have a hard time seeing is not going to happen. You'll note he barely talks about snow in his posts of late and can really only focus on the arctic outbreaks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 JB's big storm for end of the week is going poof faster than his seasonal snowfall forecast....he can't think anyone is getting 133% of normal anymore (or 167% in the midwest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ensembles show strong support for a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro ensembles show strong support for a coastal If I had a nickel for all the potential this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I would not worry about a day 7 threat. There may be 1 to 2 tomorrow during rush hour and an over running event on Monday that the euro and canadian bring accumulating snow to the area. Day 7 storms are just too far off. See what you get with the next 2 events 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I would not worry about a day 7 threat. There may be 1 to 2 tomorrow during rush hour and an over running event on Monday that the euro and canadian bring accumulating snow to the area. Day 7 storms are just too far off. See what you get with the next 2 events 1st. Fair point. BTW tell JB I like the smaller more frequent posts.... But those snowfall maps for a day 7-10 threat? come on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Fair point. BTW tell JB I like the smaller more frequent posts.... But those snowfall maps for a day 7-10 threat? come on.... Yeh he's trying to post more. " if" there is anything news worthy . 1 problem , since Thanksgiving we have been watching from the sidelines Maybe 1 to 2 tomorrow for you. Maybe 2 to 4 Monday. After that I will guess along with everyone else. Just to far to see . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeh he's trying to post more. " if" there is anything news worthy . 1 problem , since Thanksgiving we have been watching from the sidelines Maybe 1 to 2 tomorrow for you. Maybe 2 to 4 Monday. After that I will guess along with everyone else. Just to far to see . And for coastal folks, we've been watching from the sidelines since last Feb. Thanksgiving was largely a rainstorm here. 2/20/14 was my last snowfall of an inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 saw this coming dec 20.... this is WHY I gave up on my winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Dt any hope we can save last 10 days if January and fwb to at least get us near normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 saw this coming dec 20.... this is WHY I gave up on my winter forecast the PV over far North Canada has to 1) come MUCH further south 2) it cannot be aligned west to east (shaped like a football) I have NOT given up on winter in feb / march BUT euro WEEKLIES Move the mjo back into neutral circle .. ever reaching phase 8 or 1 and then back into 5 and 6 in n FEB .. which is warm and dry and would kill the winter - I copied this from the pattern thread where you said you haven't given up on Feb/march yet....any chance we save 4-6 weeks there or are you saying we're done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 JB needs a post for the historically low snowfall totals...Chicago, Albany, Boston, NYC, Philly-all at about 10% or less of climo right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 the PV over far North Canada has to 1) come MUCH further south 2) it cannot be aligned west to east (shaped like a football) I have NOT given up on winter in feb / march BUT euro WEEKLIES Move the mjo back into neutral circle .. ever reaching phase 8 or 1 and then back into 5 and 6 in n FEB .. which is warm and dry and would kill the winter - I copied this from the pattern thread where you said you haven't given up on Feb/march yet....any chance we save 4-6 weeks there or are you saying we're done? Lol, at first I thought you and DT switched keyboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Lol, at first I thought you and DT switched keyboards. haha..that copied weird for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ugly times-JB only barking about chicago being cold (who cares), his weekend storm from a week ago-remember the one that the models would have a hard time seeing that would result in quite the storm from the midwest to the east coast-has resulted in blue skies and cold temps, monday's event is all rain and end of week event is gone with no discussion at all....what a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ugly times-JB only barking about chicago being cold (who cares), his weekend storm from a week ago-remember the one that the models would have a hard time seeing that would result in quite the storm from the midwest to the east coast-has resulted in blue skies and cold temps, monday's event is all rain and end of week event is gone with no discussion at all....what a winter! I guess he's been extremely consistent -- as in calling for a white Christmas (not), calling for a white New Year (not), calling for a severe winter (not), always saying only he sees things and the models don't (as in busts), and yet somehow having the gall to say that if only the period he was forecasting for had been 6 weeks earlier or 6 weeks later he would have been spot-on. Hey, what's a mere 12 weeks when you're forecasting? What a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week. He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea. That was 3 days ago. He failed miserably. Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away). If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'?? I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose. If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank. P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone. I have under 10" to date. Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 saw this coming dec 20.... this is WHY I gave up on my winter forecast and u know this will change to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week. He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea. That was 3 days ago. He failed miserably. Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away). If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'?? I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose. If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank. P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone. I have under 10" to date. Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap yeah, he has yet to address why his snowfall forecast has been so bad...100% would be a stretch and we're going to need something like 10-11 to save it. I'm in his 133% and I have 5 inches YTD and met winter is 50% done. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ...larry cosgrove barking about (please excuse the paraphrasing) a "major amplification" of the mjo..which will bring a "major arctic intrusion" into the US during the last week of january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 ...larry cosgrove barking about (please excuse the paraphrasing) a "major amplification" of the mjo..which will bring a "major arctic intrusion" into the US during the last week of january. You forgot the key word in Larry's post --- IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 so JB admitted he crashed and burned wrt the non-existent coastal this week. He said he's been getting pummeled by readers.. Watching him the last few days, he was adamant that the models were mishandling the trough depth, placement etc. and the storm would not harmlessly shear out to sea. That was 3 days ago. He failed miserably. Now he expects us to have faith in his forecast for trough/ridge placement which will bring in colder air, (according to him at the end of January, 2 weeks away). If you're betting on a guy to shoot a target and he misses at 10', would you put more money on him to hit at 100'?? I'm on the DT train....I think the cold does come back but well into February, by then we are dealing with the last gasps of winter and transient cold/mild shots to take us to the end of a miserable winter. Nothing to lose. If the DT train derails at least I end up in a snow bank. P.S. I am sitting in the epicenter of JB's 167% snowfall zone. I have under 10" to date. Of course, we'll end up with a 2' cement blizzard in April and JB will take a victory lap JB is infuriating. He has the skills and knowledge to be great but he is stubborn to a fault and chooses to spin and hype. There is no sin in missing a long range forecast. The problem with long range forecasting is you are making a prediction based on a prediction. You first have to predict SST's, Solar Activity, and other long range pattern factors to predict how they will influence the EPO/PNA/AO/NAO. If any of your initial predictions are off the rest are off. Its difficult at best. WHat is a sin is being tied to a forecast and unwilling to adapt or change given new information. He is infuriating because he has knowledge and it would be great if right now he would discuss what is actually going on and give real insight, but instead he would rather talk about a pretend world where everything is going according to plan. Makes him less then useless right now. Of course he wont talk about snow because nothing about his snow forecast is even remotely redemable right now. At least with temps he can spin it enought to make it look close. But even with temperatures it is not happening the way he predicted. The results are irrelavent. If you read his seasonal outlook things are not going according to plan. About the only thing he nailed was the EPO. but with ONLY the EPO in our favor it will dump cold into the CONUS yea but the combo of a bad PNA/AO/NAO will ensure a craptastic storm track. Everything that amps will cut, everything else will shear out. I think two things may have really killed out winter so far. The Nino totally crapped out. On top of that we got a solar max combined with an extremely negative QBO. My understanding of those factors is novice at best but there is evidence that those two when combined are bad news for snow. I hold out some hope with shortening wavelengths and perhaps the influences of the solar max we got in Dec waning perhaps we salvage a better pattern in Feb but even so his forecast busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I agree with the frustration but we still have 2.5 months where it can snow. He emphasizes first to last flake not just January/February. So if his call for NYC is 40" it can still happen or come close with an above normal feb/march. I don't see the point in throwing in the towel less than half way through January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I agree with the frustration but we still have 2.5 months where it can snow. He emphasizes first to last flake not just January/February. So if his call for NYC is 40" it can still happen or come close with an above normal feb/march. I don't see the point in throwing in the towel less than half way through January. 1981-82 was saved by an April Blizzard...1956 by two last minute snowstorms...since 1950 15 other winters had less snow than this one up to this date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 No real snow till about Jan. 26 it seems. The colder model runs have little precipitation to offer up as snow and the wetter runs have the higher temperatures. Looks like a trend to expect when considering the ENSO state, MJO phase, a PV which is healing itself back together and teleconnections that stink. We need an accident as in 'even a blind squirrel with a stuffy nose can find the nut sometimes'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 1981-82 was saved by an April Blizzard...1956 by two last minute snowstorms...since 1950 15 other winters had less snow than this one up to this date... That's almost 25% of winters since 1950 ... pretty amazing, I never would have guessed one in four had less snow than this one up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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