OceanStWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Terrain effects still amaze me sometimes, even though I've seen them for 10+ years now in detail while paying attention from ITH to ORH...even a poster like Hubbdave to the north of me will suffer in just the right setup vs ORH, despite him averaging more snow by like 6" per winter. And I always see almost every time driving west into the western slopes of the ORH hills...the snowpack just reduces by the mile. Ekster and I talked about this after the Dec 2008 ice storm...the west side of the ORH hills got off WAY less than the east side and the spine. We had east side FIT at 300 feet getting smoked with catastrophic power outages while a place like Greenfield, MA or Sundarland got relatively little despite slightly higher elevation. Always a fascinating phenomenon. It's those local effects that make this job so fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Didn't realize the NYC thread was AllSnow leading a play by play hoping SNE was mostly rain...thanks Tim. Euro was kind of a buzzkill for that thread...jeez....lots of jealous snow weenies. I don't ever remember having a PBP here about other areas getting screwed...maybe I can't remember well enough these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You remember everything pretty darn well Will. Amazing Brain you have. And in term of the storm - I'm shocked (and happy) that my favorite TV Met is still Very Bullish with this storm and says the models are just not getting a hold of all the dynamics. I'm talking 15"-25" Bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 HPC in its just released discussion is staying with a track inside the benchmark, 992 so they don't seem to be backing down on a good storm. Also say the next storm just repeats the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Keeping up the graveyard shift here... 6z NAM significantly better for SNE... more confident after the 0z EC and 6z NAM that the northwest goalpost has been established... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Didn't realize the NYC thread was AllSnow leading a play by play hoping SNE was mostly rain...thanks Tim. Euro was kind of a buzzkill for that thread...jeez....lots of jealous snow weenies. I don't ever remember having a PBP here about other areas getting screwed...maybe I can't remember well enough these days.Wait I did what? I was not even up for the euro. When the euro came out at 12z and also the gfs I explain how much of a crush job it was. How can I be a jealous snow weenie when I was sleeping? I did not even do a pbp for the euro last night. I really could care less on how much snow you get.I'm kind of taking back by this, feel this was uncalled for and also to single out my personal name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 6z Nam one of the best runs yet for eastern MA... 2"+ for kbos, looks all frozen, 33F paste job with column frozen 950mb and above unfortunately, it's the Nam > 3 days, but nice to see the NW trend has reversed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice to see the North trend reversing on the Euro and Nam overnight with solid hits. Hopefully edging back to the colder solutions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice to see the North trend reversing on the Euro and Nam overnight with solid hits. Hopefully edging back to the colder solutions today. Quick look on my phone half asleep and NAM looks like mostly snow for KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Quick look on my phone half asleep and NAM looks like mostly snow for KTOL. GFS is warm for alot of coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Give it one more run and we'll be down to almost nothing in ENY..Hah the 6Z GFS is so far east and weak that the .5 line is western CT now. Nice to see the North trend reversing on the Euro and Nam overnight with solid hits. Hopefully edging back to the colder solutions today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 6z GFS surface and 850mb low tracks look a bit more favorable for SNE. Yea, precip is chopped though. 12z runs could be very telling to see if this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 hm just took a quick look but the NAM looked mostly frozen for N CT and the gfs looks strung out and still warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Might have already been mentioned, but 00z Canadian was actually a tick SE of the benchmark, but still relatively warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 6z Nam one of the best runs yet for eastern MA... 2"+ for kbos, looks all frozen, 33F paste job with column frozen 950mb and above unfortunately, it's the Nam > 3 days, but nice to see the NW trend has reversed I like that here in Brattleboro it looks like we'll get something at least. Going to Mount Snow probably on Monday, so it would be nice to have some fresh snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think what we're seeing with the Euro and now the NAm..who cares about the GFS..don't use it..is the storm coming back to that coastal bomb and strong dynamic low. i thin we'll continue to see that with the 12 z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think what we're seeing with the Euro and now the NAm..who cares about the GFS..don't use it..is the storm coming back to that coastal bomb and strong dynamic low. i thin we'll continue to see that with the 12 z runs today I'm not sure how you can so readily toss the GFS yet cite the NAM as something to consider (even if it's with the reliable EC now, blind squirrels.....). Either way, I'm sure you'll see some snow. I'm pretty confident I'll get a few inch refresher here. Maybe low-end warning is reasonable. Above that is still merely a wish this far out. Still windy. 18.4/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I think what we're seeing with the Euro and now the NAm..who cares about the GFS..don't use it..is the storm coming back to that coastal bomb and strong dynamic low. i thin we'll continue to see that with the 12 z runs todayYou just need to accept the taint and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok so I'll set might sights on 3 inches and maybe I can overachieve. ..Then we have the second low next which might be a little further north. I think what we're seeing with the Euro and now the NAm..who cares about the GFS..don't use it..is the storm coming back to that coastal bomb and strong dynamic low. i thin we'll continue to see that with the 12 z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LOL at DT Wxrisk.com ABOUT THE WEEKEND STORM for the eastern PA NJ NYC LONG ISLAND and all of NEW ENGLAND...several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You just need to accept the taint and move on. I have from the beginning. So I get a few hours of sleet mix or whatever and then back to snow..no big deal and move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ok so I'll set might sights on 3 inches and maybe I can overachieve. ..Then we have the second low next which might be a little further north. I'm banking on 3-5. Next week looks really dicey here. LOL at DT Wxrisk.com ABOUT THE WEEKEND STORM for the eastern PA NJ NYC LONG ISLAND and all of NEW ENGLAND...several Inches could fall over southern CT BEFORE the Mix or changeover and most of INTERIOR SE NY will stay all snow or mixed then go back to snow... northern CT all of mass up to Worcester stays all snow as does all of eastern NY NH VT and Maine. 12-24" are POSSIBLE in these areas... and western and central Mass intom southern NH 24"+ is also Possible. You were in bed--that was discussed 8 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 6z GEFS are much better vs 0z as is the op run. Maybe an over correction for all save euro on the 0z suite? We should hone in today as we're now in the 60 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not a huge surprise our luck is running out. Climo will catch up with us for the next 2 storms south of the Pike. It will be nice to see the ski areas get some good stuff even if we wind up with a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I'm banking on 3-5. Next week looks really dicey here. You were in bed--that was discussed 8 hours ago. Well most people don't stay up or wake up for model runs..Just wait and see what the morning brings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not a huge surprise our luck is running out. Climo will catch up with us for the next 2 storms south of the Pike. It will be nice to see the ski areas get some good stuff even if we wind up with a lot of rain. Nice troll post..when you obviously haven't looked at any models or spent any time on this. Nothing shows lots of rain south of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 LOL at SREF for AQW. I guess you can say they're right on with their range of 2-23". My best guess right now is 5-8". Hopefully, today will lend more confidence to how things might play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice troll post..when you obviously haven't looked at any models or spent any time on this. Nothing shows lots of rain south of pike Actually I did this morning when I got up. The 6z GFS looks like mainly sleet/rain for CT as does the 00z GGEM and the 00z Ukie also looks warm. Even the Euro has the 0c 850 isotherm to the Mass border for most of the event. And it looks like it's on the colder/amped side of guidance. As things look right now I wouldn't expect warning criteria snows in CT unless this thing trends more dynamic and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Actually I did this morning when I got up. The 6z GFS looks like mainly sleet/rain for CT as does the 00z GGEM and the 00z Ukie also looks warm. Even the Euro has the 0c 850 isotherm to the Mass border for most of the event. And it looks like it's on the colder/amped side of guidance. As things look right now I wouldn't expect warning criteria snows in CT unless this thing trends more dynamic and colder. Euro and Nam are nice hits. with mostly frozen. Trends overnight have been favorable..as the block seems to be coming in a bit stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Wait I did what? I was not even up for the euro. When the euro came out at 12z and also the gfs I explain how much of a crush job it was. How can I be a jealous snow weenie when I was sleeping? I did not even do a pbp for the euro last night. I really could care less on how much snow you get. I'm kind of taking back by this, feel this was uncalled for and also to single out my personal name. It's ok, he throws everyone under the bus now and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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