Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This system more or less marks the entrance into a teleconnector suggested very active pattern. Will's thread covers much of that conceptually, but imo this can broken out one by one. 18z GFS most aggressive run so far at 500mb, showing a potent vort max and suggestive NJ Model low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 132 hour - I think this system has a higher than normal confidence for 132 hours out, because of the weight of agreement for the impulse spatial-temporally, and also because the teleconnectors support that part of the upper MA at that time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like the potent s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro ensembles were hitting this pretty hard at 12z. Even a bit more impressive than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Tip... I love it when you talk dirty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Key to handling this will be the timing and amplitude of the blocking in eastern Canada associated with the arriving -NAO. At 24 hours, the impulse that goes on to capture a weak Miller A and converts it into a NJ Model low, is situate along and S of the western Aleutian archipelago, shown here. Notice that down stream near and east of James bay, there is low amplitude negative anomaly at the time of this chart, above. Now, bopping ahead to 132 hours, we see that region is replaced by positive anomalies, associate with an extreme west-based NAO-like blocking feature... At that time the impulse that was originally up near the Aleutians can be seen just leaving the frame on the right edge of the chart, ...having been effectively forced S. There some delicate work to get this to pan out. 2 primaries: 1, there needs to be decent handling of the block spatial-temporally; 2, the impulse leaving the upper MA needs to be strong enough to overcome some compression as it passes from the MV to off th MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Usually your posts put my head on the verge of exploding but this was good...thanks john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Pretty funny how close the 18z GEFS are with the 12z Euro ensembles...almost a dead match on the evolution and track of the storm. GEFS are just a bit faster by 6 hours or so. Otherwise very similar having the low somewhere near or just south the benchmark overnight Sat night into early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This thing is juiced too. One of the good things to later season events and the srn stream origins...PWAT city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just get it 50 miles north plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Just get it 50 miles north plz. It will be pretty funny if ORH gets another huge storm while Plymouth NH is too far north...your first winter up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Then after he graduates there is a winter dominated by weekly SWFE and they get 150" lol It will be pretty funny if ORH gets another huge storm while Plymouth NH is too far north...your first winter up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It will be pretty funny if ORH gets another huge storm while Plymouth NH is too far north...your first winter up there. That area will clean up in SWFE but that's about it. Even where I am on the NW side of Lake Winni....it can downslope quite a bit. But they retain snow like a mofo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This thing is juiced too. One of the good things to later season events and the srn stream origins...PWAT city.Yeah, late Feb into March can turn into Dorchester Deck DestroyersThose are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It will be pretty funny if ORH gets another huge storm while Plymouth NH is too far north...your first winter up there. 60" for Shrewsbury and 41" for Plymouth right now...hope that streak doesn't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 60" for Shrewsbury and 41" for Plymouth right now...hope that streak doesn't continue. I will beep as we head past PSU tomorrow at 7:45AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I will beep as we head past PSU tomorrow at 7:45AM Nice, headed to ski? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Too far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Too far out? Is what too far out? Its 5 days out...its fine I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Another weekend storm. Very convenient for sleep patterns. Gonna be tough post 3/2 with an hour later on 0Z at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Another weekend storm. Very convenient for sleep patterns. Gonna be tough post 3/2 with an hour later on 0Z at night. March 10th is daylight savings....we got a week longer than 3/2. I think we will be thankful too the way the first 10 days of March look at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Chance to crack 50" for the first time since 04/05? Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 March 10th is daylight savings....we got a week longer than 3/2. I think we will be thankful too the way the first 10 days of March look at the moment. I thought it was 3/3! Phew! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nice, headed to ski?Waterville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 March 10th is daylight savings....we got a week longer than 3/2. I think we will be thankful too the way the first 10 days of March look at the moment. will and scoots are feeling it. We just need the old guys to get aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Pretty good clustering for 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Waterville Nice, only like 15 miles north on 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's get this in here Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's get this in here Friday night Nope...in order for this to be a hefty event, we need to wait for the 2nd shortwave to catch up to the shredded initial energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Kevin's always a day early on these setups.....lol. I remember the 3/1/09 setup having the same argument... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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