CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we are entering the time of year now when modeled thermal fields become deceptive. Especially if we can get good dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Because you are not.I made a post this morning that said light snow on Saturday. Euro and your GFS both show that. How am I wrong? I never said anything except a light snow on Saturday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Weak sauce on the Euro. Likely non-accumulating stuff verbatim -sn/-ra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Weak sauce on the Euro. Likely non-accumulating stuff verbatim -sn/-ra. Yeah I'd like better dynamics for this area. Would be ok for the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In any case, the look for Saturday Night is pretty good on most guidance sans the GFS op. Personally, I would like a better hit on the euro because not sure temps will cut it...but can't be terribly picky 108hrs out or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In any case, the look for Saturday Night is pretty good on most guidance sans the GFS op. Personally, I would like a better hit on the euro because not sure temps will cut it...but can't be terribly picky 108hrs out or so. i like the positioning of the HP. on the euro you can see the low dp air nosing out off of NS / PEI etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i like the positioning of the HP. on the euro you can see the low dp air nosing out off of NS / PEI etc. I wish I could see dews. I hope it's ushering in that, because the airmass is kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have to make a decision tomorrow whether to run an open house at our house we're selling on Sunday. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have to make a decision tomorrow whether to run an open house at our house we're selling on Sunday. Good times. Might have a decent idea tomorrow on what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I refuse to get excited. 37.1/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The one good thing about the incoming s/w is that is captures the low and throws back moisture just as if it looked like it may escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro ensembles look pretty close to the OP. A little more bullish...qpf is over a half inch for all of SNE, with 0.75" in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I made a post this morning that said light snow on Saturday. Euro and your GFS both show that. How am I wrong? I never said anything except a light snow on Saturday . It's okay to be wrong Blizz.....it builds character. Interesting to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It's okay to be wrong Blizz.....it builds character. Interesting to see how this unfolds. Verbatim it shows QPF but it's very meager meaning it may be just some scattered stuff that's very light. We'll see maybe it comes in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Verbatim it shows QPF but it's very meager meaning it may be just some scattered stuff that's very light. We'll see maybe it comes in stronger. I know...just busting Blizz a bit. I seldom post, but like hearing what everyone has to say in here. Trying to get polished up on my map reading skills, but it'll come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The OP euro would probably be decent in the elevated interior. Looks like an advisory type event verbatim but may struggle lower down if it doesn't come down heavier. Ensembles are def a bit more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Haven't seen the individuals but I would bet the wet ones are warm and the cold ones are dry, resulting in a mean SLP position and QPF distribution that looks deceptively like a snowstorm. But of course at this range it doesn't really matter what the specifics show. I'm just glad the GFS and ens are showing a moderately strong coastal storm, basically in line with other guidance. Nice to see I was wrong. Most are a little warm in CT, RI, and SEMa, but several pretty good marginal snowstorm solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The OP euro would probably be decent in the elevated interior. Looks like an advisory type event verbatim but may struggle lower down if it doesn't come down heavier. Ensembles are def a bit more bullish. Euro op gets really good dynamics to the Cape...would not take much to bring it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i don't think the BL would be a big deal on the euro. initially it's mild but once the good precip gets going...it looks OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i don't think the BL would be a big deal on the euro. initially it's mild but once the good precip gets going...it looks OK. 925mb looked a little dicey for my liking, but would be ok if it came down hard. Might be another tree topper for the coast again..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i don't think the BL would be a big deal on the euro. initially it's mild but once the good precip gets going...it looks OK. I think it certainly would be initially. I could see upper 30s to low 40s near the coast in SEMa with the initial lighter precip in that stale airmass. But once the ccb gets cranking - if it were to crank like the Euro shows - I agree it probably would crash to low 30s and accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 925mb looked a little dicey for my liking, but would be ok if it came down hard. Might be another tree topper for the coast again..lol. wait...which event are we talking about? the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It keeps sfc temps in N ORH county below freezing...at least what I can see on the wunderground maps. SE areas might have some marginal problems if it doesn't come down heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think it certainly would be initially. I could see upper 30s to low 40s near the coast in SEMa with the initial lighter precip in that stale airmass. But once the ccb gets cranking - if it were to crank like the Euro shows - I agree it probably would crash to low 30s and accumulating snow. i think it looks pretty standard for late february really. it's a bit stale to begin with and would probably just be garbage for a while, but that's all crappy precip to start anyway. it would also only take a bit to have it be colder (or milder i suppose though i don't think that's likely) moot point anyway at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 wait...which event are we talking about? the weekend? Yeah Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The CIPS top analog for this weekend is MLK 2010. I thought that was kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow, 18z GFS is a big hit for interior SNE....north of Mt. Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 A Ray special on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This would make CNE happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The good news is the GFS has no demonstrated NW bias this winter at this range. There's very little chance this ends up further SE like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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