ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The differences in Canada this run are going to cause the Feb 26-27 event to get stuffed at the goaline trying to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The differences in Canada this run are going to cause the Feb 26-27 event to get stuffed at the goaline trying to cut. Meaning it gets shoved under New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Since Kevin's in bed, I've been assigned. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anytime you have a 500 mb contour erect penis shaped pointing from Boston to Montreal as the 186 gfs prog has you can't take it seriously. I'd didn't do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Storm of the century 3/1. Lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 long range gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Literally.....the storm of the century including last century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I posted in the other thread for the non-2/24 stuff, but you can see why we like the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Lol....d10 on run out of all of our basements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 I posted in the other thread for the non-2/24 stuff, but you can see why we like the pattern. Right, this is the first during a period of unrest that may last 10 days to 2 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That 2/28-3/1 storm on the GFS would give blizzard2013 a run for its money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z GGEM is a little nuke for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That 2/28-3/1 storm on the GFS would give blizzard2013 a run for its money. I've posted a bunch on this forum because it was so startling to me, but the 500mb pattern is almost identical to March 4-6 2001, except it nails everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I've posted a bunch on this forum because it was so startling to me, but the 500mb pattern is almost identical to March 4-6 2001, except it nails everyone Kind of like the progs for Mar 2001 until about 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro a solid warning criteria event for much of SNE. Does it a bit differently. The block is the one constant which forces the energy to our south and gives us a nice event. Not nearly as slow with the SW energy as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro a solid warning criteria event for much of SNE. Does it a bit differently. The block is the one constant which forces the energy to our south and gives us a nice event. Not nearly as slow with the SW energy as the GFS. Sounds good to me. Do you think the Euro will continue to perform best in this pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Sounds good to me. Do you think the Euro will continue to perform best in this pattern? Yes...but really we'll have to wait until inside 3 days with the complex blocking setup. Back to sleep in a minute....I'll prob wait until the run finishes to see if it does something fun with the 2/26-27 threat. GEFS, GGEM, Ukie, and Euro don't agree with the OP GFS ejecting the SW energy so slowly...I thought the OP run looked funny since the SW energy wasn't cut off from the flow really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 With the maps on Ewall, I cant see this at all.... It looks like the low is on the coast of Virginia at 120 hrs with only the 70% 700mb humidity reaching as far north as NYC... On the next 24 hr depiction, it looks like its out to sea well south of the bm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 With the maps on Ewall, I cant see this at all.... It looks like the low is on the coast of Virginia at 120 hrs with only the 70% 700mb humidity reaching as far north as NYC... On the next 24 hr depiction, it looks like its out to sea well south of the bm! It hits SNE hard at 126-132-138 hours. Bad run for seeing it on the 24 hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It hits SNE hard at 126-132-138 hours. Bad run for seeing it on the 24 hour panels. Gotcha. Seems like we have some kind of consensus, minus the fickle 0z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's keep this weekly dose going... Hr 135 of Euro, 3hr snowfall, Feb 24: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Let's keep this weekly dose going... Hr 135 of Euro, 3hr snowfall, Feb 24: Euro_0z_02_19_2013_Hr_135.jpg Just horrible. Congrats for many, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 6z GFS is an inverted flake setup...still a lot of time to organize all of these pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep72144.gif GEFS for both 0z and 6z were fairly robust. Euro and cmc good sized hits. This ones got legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO looked much improved overnight, even gives down here a high end advisory/low end warning event after the temps crash with the coastal saturday night. With the fact that most systems this year have trended colder, I like where this one sits right now. Tossing the 0z GFS, it has no support, and history this season has shown that when the big one comes, don't bet against the EURO. Doubt this is an all snow event down here, but think there's a decent shot at a significant (4"+) snowfall, and most of you guys should see a nice storm. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Think you'll be surprised. Enough lift and RH around Sat to generate some steady light type snow What generates that all day lift? The hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What generates that all day lift? The hills?Weak WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 It's more likely this is that usual crap the GFS servers up where it sees a tasty treat at hour 156 but then drops for 3 or 4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 So typical for the GFS to do this ... it just has a propensity to drop southern stream impulses in middle ranges - it's like it has a gene for it, just so much as one can have blue eyes, this is it's brown eye. In this run, there is a slight more northern stream dynamics dumped into the impulse near 84 hours out of the Dakotas, but the southern stream is weakened to the point where it's ineffectual by 100 or so hours. My hunch is the other model types won't be so stingy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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