ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thats a deck destroyer outside of 128/495 probably and north of the pike. It is the anniversary of 2/24/10 afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 nice bomb on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You're not allowed to post on this event unless it's suppression. 1st model run that is not, Not buying it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thicknesses on the GFS are good enough, 18 Z GFS never fails to entertain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021918&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 There's a better chance of me talking to A certain mod again than that POS verifying I bet if it was 25 miles south with the 0C line you would be singing a different tune, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You would get smoked, that's a dynamic bomb and yo there's your banana high driving in low dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Holy wow did the 18Z GFS come roaring back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 3 words sums up that run: New Jersey Bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Good christ if that closed low were ever to pass beneath LI just beyond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 My guess is the 00z run tonight will have completely dropped this event.... Why? because that has been the modeling performance all year save for blizzard - all models have been guilty of on and offism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If I hadn't tossed any willingness to be encouraged, that GFS run would almost make me smile. rn-/sn- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I just looked at that in more detail, it may be one of the most dynamic runs I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 I just looked at that in more detail, it may be one of the most dynamic runs I've ever seen. Scott it's got a feature that looks suspiciously warm secluded: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I just looked at that in model detail, it may be one of the most dynamic runs I've ever seen.yeah I was saying that to Kevin. Super VVs,a blue bomb if I ever saw one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do you know what this would do to the February snow totals at numerous sites - historically shatter them. The combination of the blizzard, and this system ... and likely, the 27th, could mean astronomical intra-monthly totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Scott it's got a feature that looks suspiciously warm secluded: Check out 700 and 500 how it closes off and a nice Vort lobe keeps precip going on the coast. Looked like some conditional instability too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 yeah I was saying that to Kevin. Super VVs,a blue bomb if I ever saw one. It would like also have a "Phill -aspheric" fold, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Anyways this may be a fairy tale run, but fun to look at. Certainly it may be juiced given its origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It would like also have a "Phill -aspheric" fold, too CCB stinger noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Check out 700 and 500 how it closes off and a nice Vort lobe keeps precip going on the coast. Looked like some conditional instability too. Yeah, obviously this is an extreme scenario there, but snow totals would like near 20" again in that kind of set up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Tippecanoe ran this in his basement. His 40 with lt rain to 3 per hour rates fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 CCB stinger noted. Absolutely there's a CCB sting jet possible. Lightning, thunder, obscene snow fall rates, then massive wind acceleration... "18 ZZZzzzzzzzzz!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yeah, obviously this is an extreme scenario there, but snow totals would like near 20" again in that kind of set up . Would you discount the modeled warmth south of the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 4.5 day isn't hugely far off - eh, the impulse is still over the Aleutians believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hey 75kts at 925 Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Would you discount the modeled warmth south of the Pike?absolutely yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Would you discount the modeled warmth? Yeah...I would. That high up there is likely assertive - there is probably p-type issues during the first half from the Pike S, but it would snow pretty ridiculously hard pretty much everywhere during the 2nd half. Figure the most snow in that solution is between the Pike and Rt Poop... But there's gotta be a convective banding in a solution like that and that could be arced through CT when it is well cold enough. But, that is "this" solution - could wind up cooler in profile as we near anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Over 2.5" of qpf at Boston. Man, this would make a run at the Blizzard 2013 totals...as depicted by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Over 2.5" of qpf at Boston. Man, this would make a run at the Blizzard 2013 totals...as depicted by the GFS. Half would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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