weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Unc is similar to gfs it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 God forbid this GFS keep continuity for 6 lousy hrs! Sheesh..... Can you trust a model that's THIS different every 6 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol thus the importance of not getting too attached to a particular solution three days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 You can see it on H5...very different from earlier runs and the 00z NAM....it basically uses some of the vort energy from the laks system to focus the dynamics...and thus its much weaker. Yeah that whole trough is stretched NE-SW and the srn energy just can't get it together in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well the way I look at it is another nights sleep Saturday...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I also wonder if the trough behind this is playing games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Unc is similar to gfs it seems. Yes it lags the energy just like the GFS. That's not a good trend. Hopefully its not a trend and just a blip...remember about 48-60 hours before the blizzard, the globals all went SE and people started tying nooses, but then the Euro at 1am came in and dumped 2-3" of qpf on everyone, lol....I'm hoping that is the case here, but if not, then we're tracking an advisory front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 As we could see in the trends all day today, a stronger digging energy in northern stream leads to a more potent primary low which spoils the otherwise favorable setup. It's far from over, but the trend has not been our friend for a big SNE hit. Meanwhile, the SREFs have been pretty good this season, right? (joking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 God forbid this GFS keep continuity for 6 lousy hrs! Sheesh..... Can you trust a model that's THIS different every 6 hrs? Keep in mind we're still 3 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 After the 00z I wonder how all the METS that called for a snowstorm on Monday feel now... I don't care how many models show snow if it's more than 3 days out.. its just a chance, weather is changing and evolving every second... if this trend keeps up most of CT will not see much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That stretching of the trough also keeps it more positively tilted and thus less dynamic, although the srn energy is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes it lags the energy just like the GFS. That's not a good trend. Hopefully its not a trend and just a blip...remember about 48-60 hours before the blizzard, the globals all went SE and people started tying nooses, but then the Euro at 1am came in and dumped 2-3" of qpf on everyone, lol....I'm hoping that is the case here, but if not, then we're tracking an advisory front end dump. Yes. I won't find out till morning. I'm planning on taking Friday off for some stuff that has to be done. By then we should be locked in...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Yes it lags the energy just like the GFS. That's not a good trend. Hopefully its not a trend and just a blip...remember about 48-60 hours before the blizzard, the globals all went SE and people started tying nooses, but then the Euro at 1am came in and dumped 2-3" of qpf on everyone, lol....I'm hoping that is the case here, but if not, then we're tracking an advisory front end dump. Ortiz in 2004 and Manny 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 That stretching of the trough also keeps it more positively tilted and thus less dynamic, although the srn energy is strong. The stretch of the trough hurts since the dynamics focus along it to the northeast rather than southeast into the southern vort rounding the base. Hopefully that isn't what happens. Pretty big change from just a run ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Gfs is going to resemble 12z euro in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Ortiz in 2004 and Manny 2007. Lol...yeah I remember texting you late that night...the worry was the blizzard was be weaker and SE...it was up to the Euro to rally in the late innings, and it homered to center. (like you said, Ortiz in '04 or Manny in '07 playoffs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The bridge is a fixed object, The only thing that changes are the people swan diving off it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Well the only model that matters is about two hours away. God forbid this GFS keep continuity for 6 lousy hrs! Sheesh..... Can you trust a model that's THIS different every 6 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 what a difference is GFS from last night 00z to tonight 00z.. lol some of you guys up north went from 2' fo 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lol...yeah I remember texting you late that night...the worry was the blizzard was be weaker and SE...it was up to the Euro to rally in the late innings, and it homered to center. (like you said, Ortiz in '04 or Manny in '07 playoffs) It was 00z on the 7th I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Strange run to say the least. Looked good and then poof. Shreaded to what's the big deal material. Belief 0.00%! Does the GFS have a bias handling southern energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The stretch of the trough hurts since the dynamics focus along it to the northeast rather than southeast into the southern vort rounding the base. Hopefully that isn't what happens. Pretty big change from just a run ago. Yeah exactly. It looked pretty dam strong down south at hr 66 near DFW, but sort of weakened and couldn't really tighten up to a nice concise vort. Not unlike the GFS to fook around with srn stream stuff so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I like my spot. A bad run of the GFS still gives me 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The 0z gfs may not be perfect, but it seems like a reasonable scenario. At least up to 72hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 GFS still fine though ALB and north. 1" to 1.25" .... Maybe a messed up run, but still a nice snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Bad run...rainer next week too. We'll wait for the 00z EURO to come in before calling this a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 well I can't complain I saw the biggest storm of my lifetime 2 weeks ago with 38"... ill re-visit when we get a storm threat for the end of next week.. congrats everyone in central and northern new england.. we are toast down here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Bad run...rainer next week too. We'll wait for the 00z EURO to come in before calling this a trend. Next week was pretty much a rainer for you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 This storm is still days away... this could go to a non-event or crush Long Island. The possibilities of solutions is endless at this time range. Still like a mid-range event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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