Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I've seen enough model mayhem today to not really buy into any one of them. It's a group hug. When you read various discos and see that the pros are a little baffled which way to go here it speaks volumes. I'm not taking a dig at the pros by saying that. Sharp troughs like this can cause a lot of things to happen in a very short time. Seems like we can probably expect measurable precip. Beyond that is far from resolved. I'm not as optimistic as usual and that's prob a good thing. My optimism sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You mentioned the UKIE earlier, and it has much more precip in the western areas than the GFS does. Yea, the UK has been leading the charge hear and I think the 12z UK run is probably about our best case scenario, it is a bit further west with the frontal wave, centers the max precip right across our area, then gets the whole thing going just fast enough to even clip us with a bit of the coastal action. Thats probably about the best solution we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Srefs are awesome wrt improvement. Nice, hope nam follows. Lol....it may be me, but it seems that everytime I hear about the SREF's looking better, the NAM doesn't seem to follow suite. We shall see. MDStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't trust the SREFs at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't trust the SREFs at all. Neither do I but lets have then in our camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Srefs are awesome wrt improvement. Nice, hope nam follows. Many look at the SREF as a sneak peak at the following runs, but since most of the data is based off the previous runs I see them more as a short range ensemble tool nothing more. If anything they give confirmation to the previous runs more then an indication of the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lol....it may be me, but it seems that everytime I hear about the SREF's looking better, the NAM doesn't seem to follow suite. We shall see. MDStorm see my other post about why that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't trust the SREFs at all. neither do I, they are fun to look sometimes. Funny thing is I was noticing for a while that a few members of the SREF have been throwing out wild solutions that throw off the mean and make it useless at times. Then a met in the PA forum confirmed that NCEP is aware of the problem and is looking into a solution but that for now use the SREF with caution because it is known to have extreme jumps in short lead times before events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 neither do I, they are fun to look sometimes. Funny thing is I was noticing for a while that a few members of the SREF have been throwing out wild solutions that throw off the mean and make it useless at times. Then a met in the PA forum confirmed that NCEP is aware of the problem and is looking into a solution but that for now use the SREF with caution because it is known to have extreme jumps in short lead times before events. Perhaps they could add a different weighting system where if one member is drastically different it receives a lower weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 . My optimism sucks. Well, I wouldn't go that far. The snowy scene in Damascus was absoltutely stunning this morning. As I was driving to work I was thinking some of the more opitmistic analysis came close to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I like SREF. It has trouble with low precip events that have sharp edges etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Where should we be looking for the beginning of this "event"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF seems to be keying in more on the 2nd part of the event Saturday afternoon (like the GFS did) than the early morning portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NEVERMIND: SREF have over .5 for everyone from IAD north and east, hug them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Individual members: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Everything from a complete miss to legit PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NEVERMIND: SREF have over .5 for everyone from IAD north and east, hug them What do the important temps look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What do the important temps look like? See post 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM starts the precip really early. 21z or so, while the surface temps are around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM starts the precip really early. 21z or so, while the surface temps are around 50. Dews rates and dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So this is why the SREF are useless right now out of the 21 runs.... 6 have nothing or just trace ammounts for DCA 4 have between .1 and .25 3 have between .25 and .5 4 have between .5 and .75 2 have over 1" 2 have over 2" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The average is close to .65 but.... if you remove the rediculous 4 ARW solutions that seem to be off on a reservation all the time lately the mean comes all the way down to .23 This is done based on my best estimation of exact precip for DCA but of course its showing the point which is the SREF are useless so long as they have this issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM starts the precip really early. 21z or so, while the surface temps are around 50. Drops it 10 degrees in 6 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF seems to be keying in more on the 2nd part of the event Saturday afternoon (like the GFS did) than the early morning portion. Yes I thought the precip looked delayed, so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like everything through 33 on the 18z NAM would be rain.. 36 would be snow I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is meh for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is meh for sure my thoughts exactly. this looks like a next'er. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 back side of the trough looking more interesting maybe at 36 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So this is why the SREF are useless right now out of the 21 runs.... 6 have nothing or just trace ammounts for DCA 4 have between .1 and .25 3 have between .25 and .5 4 have between .5 and .75 2 have over 1" 2 have over 2" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The average is close to .65 but.... if you remove the rediculous 4 ARW solutions that seem to be off on a reservation all the time lately the mean comes all the way down to .23 This is done based on my best estimation of exact precip for DCA but of course its showing the point which is the SREF are useless so long as they have this issue I think the mean is useless but there is information there. I generally like the median better than the mean and like you tend to throw out the real high outliers. They seem to show up regardless of what the 500h looks like on the operational models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not trying to project a model run, but the NAM looks like a 2-parter. Rain Friday aft/eve, then a break, then snow (presumably) would fill in on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like everything through 33 on the 18z NAM would be rain.. 36 would be snow I believe What precip after 36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think the mean is useless but there is information there. I generally like the median better than the mean and like you tend to throw out the real high outliers. They seem to show up regardless of what the 500h looks like on the operational models. I know, the problem is doing that here...gives a solutions most, including myself, do not like. If you throw out the wet outliers, and take into account the median and when the temps cool...SREF are basically advertising perhaps an inch of snow across the area. If we had a shutout this year I would get excited to just see an inch of snow, but at this point...give me a significant event or bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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