HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My fear, besides Wes being bearish, is the dreaded east/west precip axis. How many times have we seen these sharp west precip cut-offs in the 2-3 day range...only to have things shift further east at game time? ---often. How many times have things shifted west? MDstorm They sure don't seem to shift west like they used to and like you said we are always on the western fringe of something decent only to have the rug pulled from under our feet at the last minute. We got to sweat out every storm it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I am going to go with persistence forecasting on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My fear, besides Wes being bearish, is the dreaded east/west precip axis. How many times have we seen these sharp west precip cut-offs in the 2-3 day range...only to have things shift further east at game time? ---often. How many times have things shifted west? MDstorm Even if the GFS was better I still wouldn't buy it right now...this year has shown how a lock can be unlocked inside 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z UKIE looks pretty good on the Plymouth maps... QPF is DC-centric at 48 (.25-.375). At 60, about .1 to .15 falls across the DC region... so I would surmise UKIE would be NAMish with around .5 QPF at DCA UK is a pretty big hit for the DC area, and Ji you should hug it tight, because it is missing a precip panel from 48-54 where precip would definitely be falling. So we see about .4 on the two panels with a missing 6 hour period of precip in the middle. UK has been leading the charge with this one. It is not either overdone as it often is, or it has just caught on first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do we care about the ensemble mean at this point?...It is pretty wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do we care about the ensemble mean at this point?...It is pretty wet I think Wes says inside 48 hours the GEFS is not very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do we care about the ensemble mean at this point?...It is pretty wet We care deeply about anything that shows a good hit. Even the nam at 84 has been hugged lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think Wes says inside 48 hours the GEFS is not very useful. i know, but it is wet...0.5"+ for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i know, but it is wet...0.5"+ for DCA/BWI You know the drill around here, that means we love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think Wes says inside 48 hours the GEFS is not very useful. Considering the short lead and big swings the ens being wet just points toward many possibilities. This one is a shoulder shrug to me. I just want to break the streak. Above that is bonus. Below that is same ole same ole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well the 12z guidance answered my questions about how the trailing vort would play into all this. It looks like the trailing energy that was originially going to be "the storm" is now going to phase into the developing frontal wave. The 12z guidance has that happening a few hours too late for south/west of DC/BWI but this is still evolving. The guidance is just now getting a handle on this, and the details will change I am sure between now and tomorrow night. Ji, I know your freaking out about the GFS fringing you, but the 12z came really close to pulling this all together into something big. There is still a chance that last vort slows this down and pulls it in tighter and we get a better trend at 0z tonight. Regarding your "too late" comment. The big takeaway I noticed on the 12z GFS vs. the 6z is that the low pressure off the east coast is around 6 hours slower on the 12z and stronger than 6z. Hopefully it will continue to slow down and strengthen enough to pull closer to the mid-Atlantic coast before passing our latitude. I like the trend on the GFS. I don't think the surprises on it are done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Holy crap, just seeing this in depth for the first time... When was the last time that guidance pulled a fast one in less than 48 hrs before the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My fear, besides Wes being bearish, is the dreaded east/west precip axis. How many times have we seen these sharp west precip cut-offs in the 2-3 day range...only to have things shift further east at game time? ---often. How many times have things shifted west? MDstorm I know... and it is troubling. In most situations where we need fast development right near our latitude you are right we are basically done because 99/100 the guidance is a little to quick to get cyclogenesis going. Rooting for a faster development right at the last minute is usually a fail. HOWEVER, this feels like perhaps we have a shot. This trough is primed so when things start to get going it will happen fast I think. This will not be a slow development. And the models are just now jumping on this, when we do get that rare instance of a storm popping just in time and trending in our favor it is usually at the last minute like that, where the models had a hard time picking up some small scale disturbace in the larger flow until the last minute like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No, GEFS should be ignored. With the lower resolution, it's going to "spread out" the heavier precip as well relative to the Op or the short-range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UK is a pretty big hit for the DC area, and Ji you should hug it tight, because it is missing a precip panel from 48-54 where precip would definitely be falling. So we see about .4 on the two panels with a missing 6 hour period of precip in the middle. UK has been leading the charge with this one. It is not either overdone as it often is, or it has just caught on first. Hasn't the NOGAPS shown development off the EC all week while the others didn't? It was showing a LP off VA on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We care deeply about anything that shows a good hit. Even the nam at 84 has been hugged lately With this crappy winter, I couldn't agree more. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i know, but it is wet...0.5"+ for DCA/BWI toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do we care about the ensemble mean at this point?...It is pretty wet I know most mets say at this range it is useless, and I am sure they have more knowledge about that then me, but in an evolving situation like this, when the GFS is going through rapid changes at the last minute, I do look at the individual runs to give me an idea of if its on the right track or if it ate some bad suchi and threw up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i like this more than dc getting 4" tho it's shifted substantially over recent runs.. so who knows. super low confidence around here imo. gotta hope for a lucky win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 They sure don't seem to shift west like they used to and like you said we are always on the western fringe of something decent only to have the rug pulled from under our feet at the last minute. We got to sweat out every storm it seems like. If the -NAO holds and the 50/50 is there, the Feb 22 storm might be ours. That is a good setup for a significant snow to ice for our area. 0z Euro was like 8" of snow then a ton of ice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No, GEFS should be ignored. With the lower resolution, it's going to "spread out" the heavier precip as well relative to the Op or the short-range models. I know the mean loses utility at this range but it is wet....so I am using it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hasn't the NOGAPS shown development off the EC all week while the others didn't? It was showing a LP off VA on 00z. Yes it has been showing a deep storm, but its been all over with where it would be and how it would evolve. Nogaps had the basic idea of a deeper system but it was just grasping at straws for anything more then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I know most mets say at this range it is useless, and I am sure they have more knowledge about that then me, but in an evolving situation like this, when the GFS is going through rapid changes at the last minute, I do look at the individual runs to give me an idea of if its on the right track or if it ate some bad suchi and threw up Is this evolving storm off the coast which appears to be backing up some, the PD3 storm originally modeled about a week ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I know the mean loses utility at this range but it is wet....so I am using it Can you throw in one more "wet"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Is this evolving storm off the coast which appears to be backing up some, the PD3 storm originally modeled about a week ago? I think it's the storm that blows up the original PD3 storm......right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 before writing off the GFS Ens due to lower res, I'd like to see the individual maps.Any idea where to get them other than EWall? Those don't seem to be out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 before writing off the GFS Ens due to lower res, I'd like to see the individual maps.Any idea where to get them other than EWall? Those don't seem to be out yet. THey come out later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 before writing off the GFS Ens due to lower res, I'd like to see the individual maps. Lower resolution is the perfect reason to write this off when we're talking about a potentially narrow band of precip/lift and a possible low development where small-scale placement is critical. But feel free to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Is this evolving storm off the coast which appears to be backing up some, the PD3 storm originally modeled about a week ago? sort of, there are 2 vorts, a front runner going to our north and one diving down the backside of the trough that sharpens it up. A week ago models were keying on that second vort phasing in and becoming the storm. The first one kinda ran interference for a while, but now models seem to be coming around to a compromise solution. An anafrontal wave develops along the front trailing from the lead vort going to our north, then the second vort that was the original storm phases into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lower resolution is the perfect reason to write this off when we're talking about a potentially narrow band of precip/lift and a possible low development where small-scale placement is critical. But feel free to look. I'm looking for more than small scale changes. If thats all that lead to the high QPF then I agree write it off, but I have a feeling a few members will show a nice vort and a wound up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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