forkyfork Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 you can see the energy lighting up radar over pa/ny. our heaviest rates will occur as that reaches the coastal low precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm in Morristown and we're really quite close to the edge of the precipitation shield... Moderate snows for the past several hours though, beautiful out there. Can't wait until the phase completes and it really starts to crank! I hear you my brother, it was great to see the back edge stop out towards Budd Lake. I had my doubts earlier this morning but when you factor in a probably one inch or more, with high ratios, ontop of the 4-6" already fallen, we could easily approach 18" out this way if not more. Depending on how far the most intense banding makes it out by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the question is for how long and how heavy for central and western sections of Jersey. Depends who gets in on the best banding. Right now I like eastern middlesex for jackpot in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Depends who gets in on the best banding. Right now I like eastern middlesex for jackpot in nj I think so too... They always do well in big ones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CST FRI FEB 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...LONG ISLAND AND SRN NY...FAR NERN NJ CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 082151Z - 090145Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS EVENING ...WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR OVER SRN NY/NERN NJ...TO 2-3 INCHES ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. DISCUSSION...SFC OBS FROM 21Z CONTINUE TO REFLECT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFFSHORE CYCLONE...WITH PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4 MB/HR OBSERVED. RADAR REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC SHOWS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS RI/SRN MA/SRN CT. HOWEVER...SOME BRIGHT-BAND ENHANCEMENT MAY BE OCCURRING AS MIXED P-TYPE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS PREDOMINANT ACROSS LONG ISLAND...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 33-35 F. INITIALLY...NEAR- OR ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS RATES IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS N-NE...A CHANGEOVER TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INCREASING IN CONCERT WITH INTENSE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH /LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY PER 2130Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH THE OFFSHORE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER LOCATED BENEATH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THESE FACTORS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 clueless, as usual The echos are in the process of building back and west. We're in for a very heavy period of snow from now until hopefully 4-5am. Nearly 12 hours. Also, keep in mind that bright banding is causing some of those crazy colors to our east. I was under that for a time and didn't really experience that heavy a rain rate. We lost maybe 0.75", still well over an inch on its way of water which will be a foot or more given ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Based on how heavy the snow is falling and the 4km NAM. Someone might pull of 25-30" here on the island. Eastern Suffolk may get up to 20"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The reason the rainfall rates seem so high over Long Island on radar is because the beam is encountering the melting layer giving incorrectly high rainfall (snow) rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I would say based on gfs/nam which both seem reasonable....take whatever you have now and add about 5-10" and you got your total from ne nj into NYC m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The reason the rainfall rates seem so high over Long Island on radar is because the beam is encountering the melting layer giving incorrectly high rainfall (snow) rates. Thanks, you may have answered my question #418. Probably need to coordinate the radar estimates with actual ground station data in real time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just came from the sea wall facing the Throgs nk bridge the gusts slammed my door shut in a hurry to take pics my oldest sons job now ma nature is delivering the goods and i'm grateful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The reason the rainfall rates seem so high over Long Island on radar is because the beam is encountering the melting layer giving incorrectly high rainfall (snow) rates. To some extent yes, but the actual rates are impressive nonetheless. I can barely make out the house across the street right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm is forming into a huge heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is a brutal dryslot for the Mt. Holly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 60dbz echos now expanding and moving onshore That can't all be melting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah guys, the gap is closing. Looks very close to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The precip shield is filling in nicely out in eastern PA. Now extends from Upstate NY all the way south into MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just had a report from Green Brook ( Somerset ) he has 3,0 an elevation of 520 feet and he is close to the back edge of that band he says " Its snowing pretty hard " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs has close to a foot of snow for NYC Valentine's day !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs has close to a foot of snow for NYC Valentine's day !!! That looks far more exciting than this one and much less complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is a brutal dryslot for the Mt. Holly area. I am very close to this in southern somerset...the edge rides along the county border...we have snow but I would call it snow flurries now and not even light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow is sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow is very light here in Monroe now that dry area continues to push through Middlesex/Monmouth and into Union now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks as though the heavier band over central NY/PA might consolidate with the band over the Hudson valley/northern NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleeting again in Lynbrook at 30.7 degrees. Are the chances still there for us getting under any of those 2-3 inch an hour bands? Or, will this be East of us in Suffolk. When the 12-20 inch totals are given, they can't be talking about Southern and Western Nassau County, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LGA looks fine i have imby disease it sure is pretty outside i appreciate all the patience this board has we've come along way in about 15yrs whoosh it goes fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sleeting again in Lynbrook at 30.7 degrees. Are the chances still there for us getting under any of those 2-3 inch an hour bands? Or, will this be East of us in Suffolk. When the 12-20 inch totals are given, they can't be talking about Southern and Western Nassau County, right? We're at the point now where we start to lose out more and more on what totals we were expecting, since I was hoping we'd all be snow by 4pm or so and now it's looking like even at 0z in an hour we might not be all snow given this new warm push. If we're not by then, I'd say under a foot, maybe we end up with more like 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 still raining with slt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We're at the point now where we start to lose out more and more on what totals we were expecting, since I was hoping we'd all be snow by 4pm or so and now it's looking like even at 0z in an hour we might not be all snow given this new warm push. If we're not by then, I'd say under a foot, maybe we end up with more like 8-12". Rain to snow transitions are always nowcast specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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