Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[dryslot]

Torch all the way to Quebec

[CoastalWx]

El torcho.

[dendrite]

We will have some extra snow to wash away later

We probably survive Tuesday with 30s and then we get some overrunning DZ/FZDZ over the shallow CAD Tue night. Then it remains to be seen how much, if at all, we can hold off the 2m warmth on Wednesday. It looks ugly right now, but at least the op is speeding up the cold fropa like the ens had.

 

+12C for SNE/CNE Wed afternoon. Torch city.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like 50s all the way up into NNE. Though the torch might be a bit dirty with cloud cover and a more south wind off the Atlantic vs a SW or WSW wind

[dendrite]

but at least the op is speeding up the cold fropa like the ens had.

And I'll take that back now at least for the northeast.

[ORH_wxman]

Torch is timed well too to get a cheap midnight high temp on Thursday...so two big torch departure days. That outta get LL to start posting daily departures again.

[dryslot]

And I'll take that back now at least for the northeast.

 

 

Yeah the speed of that front is key if we can get it to pick up the pace we would be better off

[dryslot]

      

[Allsnow]

Here comes the arctic hounds on friday

[Ginx snewx]

We better savor any snow we get on the front end because that stuff is going to be vaporized so fast on Wed/Thu.

Savor it on skis Tuesday with us at Berkshire East, looks good, nice Cad look to the Euro for Tues too.

[CT Rain]

Torch is timed well too to get a cheap midnight high temp on Thursday...so two big torch departure days. That outta get LL to start posting daily departures again.

 

With a monsoon to follow. 

 

This winter sucks. 

[Ginx snewx]

Meh two days, totally meh, south winds off the ocean mean much cooler down in SNE than NNE

[dendrite]

Meh two days, totally meh, south winds off the ocean mean much cooler down in SNE than NNE

It's going to suck for all of us. Maybe SW CT gets an early torch start on Tues.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

With a monsoon to follow. 

 

This winter sucks. 

 

 

What are the analog years for two consecutive suck winters?

 

Last big snowstorm for NE was October of 2011, that's like a big cosmic f.u. for NE snow lovers.  lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It's going to suck for all of us. Maybe SW CT gets an early torch start on Tues.

 

I was horrified last w/e how little snow there was in NNE.  Greenfield, MA had more otg than St Johnsbury VT. 

[SnowMan]

Why isn't this thread pinned?

[ctsnowstorm628]

I was horrified last w/e how little snow there was in NNE. Greenfield, MA had more otg than St Johnsbury VT.

St j is up to 4-5" cover, but yeah it's awful.

[dryslot]

The snow pack is down right hideous up here

[Hazey]

I couldn't care less if there is a big warm up and rain. The snow pack here isn't worth saving. Is what it is. Name this winter "Murphy's Law" If it can go wrong, it will go wrong.

[dryslot]

I couldn't care less if there is a big warm up and rain. The snow pack here isn't worth saving. Is what it is. Name this winter "Murphy's Law" If it can go wrong, it will go wrong.

 

 

I had said a few days ago that this winter was a lot like last just doing it differently then last year with about the same results

[HoarfrostHubb]

A blip between cold. Too bad it is going to happen, but it is not like we will lose a big snowpack

[Damage In Tolland]

Man what a disturbing turn of events. We went from everyone excited about a great pattern to nothing

[N. OF PIKE]

Man what a disturbing turn of events. We went from everyone excited about a great pattern to nothing

i was never sold on a great pattern, i think most of us were skeptical of that occuring. i mean granted it still could for feb, but it's difficult for me to imagine.

 

and after mid feb forget about snowpack retention. that is best from mid dec thur early feb.

[tamarack]

I had said a few days ago that this winter was a lot like last just doing it differently then last year with about the same results

At the end of January 2012, I had 12" OG and total snowfall of 43.4". There's 11" here at present and 38.0" total snowfall. Unless there's a significant change for the better in the forecast, MBY will look worse on Feb 1, 2013 than it did a year earlier. And that's with NDJ this year running about 4F colder than last. Who'd 'a' thunk it?

12z gfs pops a secondary in PA that on Thursday becomes a 960s monster just north of the N. tip of Maine, as FVE gets 40s RA on strong southerlies. What's not to like?

[SnowMan]

I am sure Tip will start a thread soon about the angle of the sun on Feb 10th...

[Quincy]

Back on topic...

Looks like some light snow/ice Monday, but the heaviest precip stays west of SNE. However, the timing may make for a tricky afternoon commute on Monday.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Man what a disturbing turn of events. We went from everyone excited about a great pattern to nothing

 

Kev hope for the surprise events.  IE, something like the anafrontal stuff (or later development) by chance working out etc.  That's all we can do.

 

great pattern for cold and snow retention the only part missing is the actual snow.

[Hazey]

I had said a few days ago that this winter was a lot like last just doing it differently then last year with about the same results

Yup, more than one way to skin a cat.

 

What perplexes me is why some winters with poor or mediocre patterns produce while good or great patterns we get screwed. I know some say bad luck but there has to be more to it then that. Anyway sorry for the negative post. This winter, as well as the last two up here, have worn me down and I'm close to melting down.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yup, more than one way to skin a cat.

 

What perplexes me is why some winters with poor or mediocre patterns produce while good or great patterns we get screwed. I know some say bad luck but there has to be more to it then that. Anyway sorry for the negative post. This winter, as well as the last two up here, have worn me down and I'm close to melting down.

I'm not sure why, but none of the s/w troughs that we've seen this year are clean. They're almost all marked by multiple vorticities within the overall structure which prevents any type of good development. It's probably a function of the speed of the flow, or some of the stuff Tip and others have been talking about. Look at yesterdays....3-4 pretty distinct spins as it ran along the border. IE, whether it's just a symptom of the pattern itself I don't know or care, just something I've noted and haven't seen much in the 15-20 years I've watched closely.

[It's Always Sunny]

I guess it depends on where you are. Tuesday morning commute could be messy too if this disturbance slows down a tad. Looks like mainly a Monday afternoon/night type deal.

Back on topic...
Looks like some light snow/ice Monday, but the heaviest precip stays west of SNE. However, the timing may make for a tricky afternoon commute on Monday