Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[CoastalWx]

That's a nice cold tuck Tueaday morning. Let's see if this continues. Sometimes these features separate the boys from the men when it comes to mets.

[ORH_wxman]

That's a nice cold tuck Tueaday morning. Let's see if this continues. Sometimes these features separate the boys from the men when it comes to mets.

 

 

MET guidance has upper 30s for Tuesday highs at BOS/ORH. MAV is like 42-43.

[Cold Miser]

That's a nice cold tuck Tueaday morning. Let's see if this continues. Sometimes these features separate the boys from the men when it comes to mets.

Elaborate for the non-met savvy chumps on the board.

[Cold Miser]

NWS shows rain chances for my area Tues.-Thurs.

     

 

 

 

   

[CoastalWx]

Elaborate for the non-met savvy chumps on the board.

Sometimes along warm fronts you get these weak waves to form such that when they move east, winds turn light northerly and cold air from srn NH and srn ME oozes south and loves to hang out near and east of the ORH hills into BOS area. They are very tough to predict, but can really throw a wrench into the forecast if you have rain, but in reality it's 28f with freezing rain. Walt Drag, a former met at BOX now down in Philly, called it a cold air tuck....the term kind of stuck.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah the one good part about the brevity of the torch is the lake ice will be spared from much damage. Then it will become even thicker with the cold coming up for early February. So at least the ice fishers, snow mobilers and pond skaters will not hurt too much.

 

Pretty amazing how thick the ice got this past week.

Snow mobilers? With no snow cover...unless they want to ride on just lakes.. that will be difficult

[Damage In Tolland]

NWS shows rain chances for my area Tues.-Thurs.

     

 

 

 

   

It's a day where NYC might roar into the 40's..while NE of there is in the 30's all day and ORH NE might stay 30 or so most of the day..sort of like tucking ballz into socks

[CoastalWx]

Has anybody looked at the soundings right after the cold front moves through? Wonder If the cold air is announced in by 40-50mph gusts. Been a while since we had a strong fropa like that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Has anybody looked at the soundings right after the cold front moves through? Wonder If the cold air is announced in by 40-50mph gusts. Been a while since we had a strong fropa like that.

Wed nite wee hour fropa correct?

[CoastalWx]

Wed nite wee hour fropa correct?

Wee Willie Wednesday night. After midnight or so.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Wee Willie Wednesday night. After midnight or so.

 

Will the cold air be lagging behind the front?

[CoastalWx]

Will the cold air be lagging behind the front?

It should get cold rather quickly I think. It wont go from like 50 to 25 in one hour, but should drop to freezing rather quickly.

[DavisStraight]

The lake ice will be perfect after a little rain.

 

Natures zamboni, now we need some snow

[Tropopause_Fold]

i think this event is going to overperform a bit. or at least... surprise a bit...especially the further N and E you are. 

[weatherMA]

i think this event is going to overperform a bit. or at least... surprise a bit...especially the further N and E you are.

SREF mean has a mean over 3" in Dendrite land. I feel good about 3-5" at Plymouth IMO.

Why does the GFS have such little qpf?

[Tropopause_Fold]

SREF mean has a mean over 3" in Dendrite land. I feel good about 3-5" at Plymouth IMO.

Why does the GFs have such little qpf?

yeah you guys are going to do well, relatively speaking.

 

i think even BOS/ORH, and maybe even for a short time down here where i am, makes out "well". this is becoming a pretty distinct wave now...not just a warm front lifting north so a lot of places may never really go over to rain (obviously along the S Coast will) but might just get some nice snow and then end as some ice. it's more tricky for areas over CT though as the mid-level warming seems to cross a good chunk of the state concurrently with the precip. whereas further north and east it doesn't. so like ryan alluded to earlier it might be more of a sleet or ice situation there. 

[weathafella]

Its not going to be in the 40's on Tuesday. Undercut all numbers and forecasts for Tuesday. Front doesn't make it thru till Late tues nite or early am Wed. Wed will roast

Tuesday will have trouble warming at low levels. Wednesday however the freaking sky's the limit. Can anyone hit 60?

[HoarfrostHubb]

WINDEX possible Thurs?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Tuesday will have trouble warming at low levels. Wednesday however the freqking sky's the limit. Can anyone hit 60?

yeah euro actually holds us all in the 30s on tuesday. i can buy that...particularly up near you as that N flow will help drag down the remnant cold from dendrite and dryslot and drop into your fanny. 

 

but yeah, wednesday is nasty. 

[PWMan]

WINDEX possible Thurs?

Those don't seem to happen anymore, at least for the CP. I'm fully expecting a meh fropa with just a gradual cool-down; downsloping FTL.

[mattb65]

I'm thinking we actually do pretty well in and around BOS - I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice 2-3" then some sleet before the big warm up to wash it all away.  Might be a really bad commute home tomorrow afternoon depending on the timing.  I think Pike south will see lots of taint especially south and west.

[CoastalWx]

Just in time for me to go back to work and focus on a tricky forecast into Tuesday.

[weathafella]

I'm thinking we actually do pretty well in and around BOS - I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice 2-3" then some sleet before the big warm up to wash it all away.  Might be a really bad commute home tomorrow afternoon depending on the timing.  I think Pike south will see lots of taint especially south and west.

BOS could hit double figures from this event. They are at 7.7 now. Been a rough 23 months.

[joey2002]

Yeah it's a tricky set up with the warming coming in from the w and SW.

 

Looks like our area will be right on the battleground between snow/ice?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Looks like our area will be right on the battleground between snow/ice?

you should get some snow to start. i just wonder if the "better" stuff is more focused over ORH to BOS to NE MA...and maybe even E MA just because of the way the cold air approaches. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

18z NAM brings the low level warming to a stop just W of here. "Mild" air Cuts across CT and RI then gets shunted SE

[CT Rain]

18z NAM brings the low level warming to a stop just W of here. "Mild" air Cuts across CT and RI then gets shunted SE

 

Tomorrow could be a decent little event. Models are all juicing up as we get closer. I think here in CT it could be an icy mess during the afternoon... cold surfaces should promote extra accretion I think. 

[weatherMA]

Hmmm...GYX thinking 1-2" for CNE...not bullish at all and they don't even have a snow map out.

[Tropopause_Fold]

18z NAM brings the low level warming to a stop just W of here. "Mild" air Cuts across CT and RI then gets shunted SE

Tomorrow could be a decent little event. Models are all juicing up as we get closer. I think here in CT it could be an icy mess during the afternoon... cold surfaces should promote extra accretion I think.

Yeah I agree. And if we cloud over early it could be a long climb out

[SR Airglow]

Tomorrow could be a decent little event. Models are all juicing up as we get closer. I think here in CT it could be an icy mess during the afternoon... cold surfaces should promote extra accretion I think. 

How far south in CT do you see the freezing rain sticking around for more than a little while? Do you think Fairfield County/I 95 is going to have issues tomorrow afternoon or should we warm up enough to be plain rain?

 

Thanks

 

-skisheep