Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[mahk_webstah]

It's been funny checking in on this board over the course of the day and seeing comments like "GFS on board for CNE" and "could be a nice little event." Then I check GYX and they're thinking 1" tops. Of course, the very fact that this thing has spawned an active thread is an indication of how pathetic this winter has been overall....

the afternoon package was 1-3 for me....did they lower it?

[dendrite]

I know I know. But I'm going with a 2-4" forecast. I can't believe they're going with a less than an inch forecast though? I don't see how we get less than 1.5".

Well every event has failed so < 1.5" wouldn't exactly shock me.

 

But I like 1-3" or 2-4".

[CoastalWx]

Well every event has failed so < 1.5" wouldn't exactly shock me.

 

But I like 1-3" or 2-4".

 

It looks like the frontogenic fields weaken a bit, but I think a good 2-3" there.

[mahk_webstah]

Yup.

 

 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONCORD...HOOKSETT407 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2013.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.LOWS AROUND 4 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 7 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT..MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW50 PERCENT..MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NOT AS COLD WITHLOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

[weatherMA]

the afternoon package was 1-3 for me....did they lower it?

Ya...new forecast has less than an inch. Dave...here's the 21z srefs. 70% chance of 4"! LOL

[PWMan]

the afternoon package was 1-3 for me....did they lower it?

Mine is "less than one inch" for both Monday and Monday night -- which I guess you could add up to 1-2".

[weatherMA]

Well every event has failed so < 1.5" wouldn't exactly shock me.

 

But I like 1-3" or 2-4".

1-4" is a pretty big range. I'd go with 2-4.

[dendrite]

the afternoon package was 1-3 for me....did they lower it?

They have 1.1" for CON in the grids from what I added up. BOX and BTV are a bit more aggressive. NAM is coming in decent, but I'm more interested to see if the GFS improves. It's been slowly improving with that s/w riding over the ridge.

[dendrite]

1-4" is a pretty big range. I'd go with 2-4.

Where did I say 1-4"?

[HoarfrostHubb]

1-4" is a pretty big range. I'd go with 2-4.

3-4" for your area. Already back at school?

[weatherMA]

Where did I say 1-4"?

1-3 or 2-4= 1-4. I'm just joking around anyway dude.

[weatherMA]

3-4" for your area. Already back at school?

Yeah got back this afternoon. NAM looks good.

[dendrite]

1-3 or 2-4= 1-4. I'm just joking around anyway dude.

I'm just saying I could buy either of those calls. Like Scott said, this was always supposed to weaken with time which is why I'm not weenieing out over 2"/hr rates in MI. I think I'd go with 2-3" and a spot 4".

[ChrisM]

17F and plummeting...i think the cold holds strong

[weatherMA]

I'm just saying I could buy either of those calls. Like Scott said, this was always supposed to weaken with time which is why I'm not weenieing out over 2"/hr rates in MI. I think I'd go with 2-3" and a spot 4".

I agree. Obviously wasn't expecting a WWA up here since the criteria is 4", but timing is pretty bad. They'll prob put out a special weather statement noon tomorrow or something.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I agree. Obviously wasn't expecting a WWA up here since the criteria is 4", but timing is pretty bad. They'll prob put out a special weather statement noon tomorrow or something.

I was surprised at the WWA here, but I suppose it is for the ice.

9.1F/2

[mahk_webstah]

I'm just saying I could buy either of those calls. Like Scott said, this was always supposed to weaken with time which is why I'm not weenieing out over 2"/hr rates in MI. I think I'd go with 2-3" and a spot 4".

Lolllies!  

[weatherMA]

I was surprised at the WWA here, but I suppose it is for the ice.

9.1F/2

You are in one cold location. Even up at Plymouth its 15.4/-11. It's dry up here though. Forecast low of 5F.

[dendrite]

You are in one cold location. Even up at Plymouth its 15.4/-11. It's dry up here though. Forecast low of 5F.

There's still a bit of mixing at times so 1P1 hasn't been able to really decouple yet. I'm down to 10F.

[CoastalWx]

It does have that look of a weenie band of echoes hanging on from WNW-ESE, probably north of CON so maybe someone gets 3"+. That will be welcomed up that way.

[dendrite]

It does have that look of a weenie band of echoes hanging on from WNW-ESE, probably north of CON so maybe someone gets 3"+. That will be welcomed up that way.

At least it will last a little longer than 12/21.

[CoastalWx]

At least it will last a little longer than 12/21.

Ray can't get you on that one lol.

[CT Rain]

00z NAM is just about all sleet/freezing rain here in CT. 

[dendrite]

NAM is icey here Tue night...will have to keep an eye on that. It's trying to keep a drizzly wedge in here midday Wednesday too.

[ORH_wxman]

That coldtuck on the NAM is more impressive. Even BOS could go to FZDZ.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

That coldtuck on the NAM is more impressive. Even BOS could go to FZDZ.

That could make things interesting.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Certainly can't call the cold air mass stale. 10F here under moonlit skies. Should be some fun weather watching Mon/Tues. Snow and ice incoming.

[ChrisM]

it's cold and radiating down hard...how much will that matter though?  I assume it matters but how much?

[CT Rain]

it's cold and radiating down hard...how much will that matter though?  I assume it matters but how much?

 

Doesn't really matter at all, actually. Radiational cooling won't make a whole lot of difference the only thing the temp. drop really signifies is that the atmosphere is quite dry and it will take a while to saturate and there will be quite a bit of evaporational cooling. 

[ChrisM]

Doesn't really matter at all, actually. Radiational cooling won't make a whole lot of difference the only thing the temp. drop really signifies is that the atmosphere is quite dry and it will take a while to saturate and there will be quite a bit of evaporational cooling. 

ah okay thanks, that makes a lot of sense.