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Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

models underestimating totals big time out towards chicago could that translate here?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lot&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

Probably not, its more of an ice setup. I think the ice may overperform if anything, this was a truly cold air mass. Places south of 84 got below zero without radiating much lol.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Sometimes along warm fronts you get these weak waves to form such that when they move east, winds turn light northerly and cold air from srn NH and srn ME oozes south and loves to hang out near and east of the ORH hills into BOS area. They are very tough to predict, but can really throw a wrench into the forecast if you have rain, but in reality it's 28f with freezing rain. Walt Drag, a former met at BOX now down in Philly, called it a cold air tuck....the term kind of stuck.

Thanks, dude.  Makes sense.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

seems pretty meh 1 to 2 inches of snow then 1/10th of an inch of ice  to me thats nbd around here

 

Yeah in terms of meteorology it's pretty meh. I do think the impact may be a bit more than usual given how cold surfaces are and an extended period of light ZR away from the water.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

10 inches for BOS by midnight tomorrow night?

 

Possibly.

 

Honestly, could be a nasty night, There's a chance we get to 32 or 33 and then fall into the U20s after midnight. I wonder if some mets will see this possibility. I shouldn't act like it's a lock..but that is what shown on all models pretty much.

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
Posted

Yeah in terms of meteorology it's pretty meh. I do think the impact may be a bit more than usual given how cold surfaces are and an extended period of light ZR away from the water.

 

Around what time are you thinking we'll change from snow to ZR in the Storrs/Tolland general area? 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Possibly.

 

Honestly, could be a nasty night, There's a chance we get to 32 or 33 and then fall into the U20s after midnight. I wonder if some mets will see this possibility. I shouldn't act like it's a lock..but that is what shown on all models pretty much.

 

It just looks like one of those nasty FZDZ setups by evening too once the main thrust moves on through.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
If only they would put some kind of note on the image explaining why.

NoSnow.png

Regardless, they seem to really be siding with the low end of guidance...i.e. the GFS. The GFS has been getting wetter with time though. This won't be anything epic, but I could see a widespread 2-3". Looks like they're leaning toward < 1" for us. I would at least go 1-3".
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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

Regardless, they seem to really be siding with the low end of guidance...i.e. the GFS. The GFS has been getting wetter with time though. This won't be anything epic, but I could see a widespread 2-3". Looks like they're leaning toward < 1" for us. I would at least go 1-3".

Yeah, I may be a weenie, but I'm not buying it. SREF mean has almost 4" for LCI. 2-4" is my final call.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's a little high. Only the weenie meso's are spitting out near 0.50" around here.

 

 

I was more laughing at the SREFs being thrown around....not that they have been historically a bad tool...but they've been so awful recently, that it was just a bit of internal comic relief to see it thrown around in a serious manner.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if there were actually some 3-4" amounts somewhere.

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

Regardless, they seem to really be siding with the low end of guidance...i.e. the GFS. The GFS has been getting wetter with time though. This won't be anything epic, but I could see a widespread 2-3". Looks like they're leaning toward < 1" for us. I would at least go 1-3".

It's been funny checking in on this board over the course of the day and seeing comments like "GFS on board for CNE" and "could be a nice little event." Then I check GYX and they're thinking 1" tops. Of course, the very fact that this thing has spawned an active thread is an indication of how pathetic this winter has been overall....

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RI Rob

RI Rob

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Posted

Possibly.

 

Honestly, could be a nasty night, There's a chance we get to 32 or 33 and then fall into the U20s after midnight. I wonder if some mets will see this possibility. I shouldn't act like it's a lock..but that is what shown on all models pretty much.

what's boston actually looking at?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I was more laughing at the SREFs being thrown around....not that they have been historically a bad tool...but they've been so awful recently, that it was just a bit of internal comic relief to see it thrown around in a serious manner.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if there were actually some 3-4" amounts somewhere.

I would think they would've ran this as a parallel run with the old SREFs and that it must've scored well. What a disaster it has been this cold season though.

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educate

educate

Posted
Posted

19/-3 Andover. honest to goodness cold out there.

I was more laughing at the SREFs being thrown around....not that they have been historically a bad tool...but they've been so awful recently, that it was just a bit of internal comic relief to see it thrown around in a serious manner.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if there were actually some 3-4" amounts somewhere.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

what's boston actually looking at?

 

I've been away so haven't looked too hard. Looks like an inch or two I guess and then maybe this period of a little RA or DZ...possibly FZDZ predawn Tuesday as the colder air comes back. It's also possible Logan barely makes it above 32..or if they do..maybe for a few hours.

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