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January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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In the met world, it's never good to be in between areas of mesoscale forcing.

Who knows, maybe with east winds it may flare up a bit after midnight. These things are fickle as we all know.

I hope some weenies learn a lesson and take advice from mets who weren't as bullish. This thing did have super hat potential...they always do.

 

Erring conservative generally wins this particular winter.

Forget the "weenies". Look at the maps by the NWS and multiple TV pro mets... alot of mets were thrown off today.

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You will end up with more then most on here for sure, Congrats

 

I've only got 1.5" right now.  That band is dying on the vine as it tries to move up..it's going out with the coastal.  Maybe Phil gets lucky on that developing heavier thin band.  Maybe we have some flakage later with the stuff in NY as it swings down but I don't see any reason to doubt the RGEM/Euro and really the new NAM.

 

 

Notice the best returns tried to make a run at SE CT and are now falling back...that'll happen along RI next and then near me.  We get the fluff on top.  One more good band should rotate through, hopefully I can double my total so far.

 

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes

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I am just waiting for Friday to crap out too...it's gonna happen. Last winter might have been better...at least we didn't have expectations...

Last winter was awful and I thought we couldn't possibly do worse this year. We have lots of winter left but I really wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with the same or less for total snowfall. Its almost end of January and we've only had three mediocre events. Sad.

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I've only got 1.5" right now.  That band is dying on the vine as it tries to move up..it's going out with the coastal.  Maybe Phil gets lucky on that developing heavier thin band.  Maybe we have some flakage later with the stuff in NY as it swings down but I don't see any reason to doubt the RGEM/Euro and really the new NAM.

 

 

Notice the best returns tried to make a run at SE CT and are now falling back...that'll happen along RI next and then near me.  We get the fluff on top.  One more good band should rotate through, hopefully I can double my total so far.

 

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=box&loop=yes

 

 

That is more then most will see............. :)

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Erring conservative generally wins this particular winter.

Forget the "weenies". Look at the maps by the NWS and multiple TV pro mets... alot of mets were thrown off today.

To be fair, I thought we could do better this morning when the GFS and SREFs looked good. Even then I said hope for 2-4". It looked meh after the euro came out. These things are classic feast or famine...you can't just look at QPF, you have to understand the Synoptics too.

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Looks like about three quarters of an inch in ORH back home here.

 

Hopefully we can get another little burst, but as Scott said, you never should expect a lot in these...usually like 1-2" is the way to go and hope to get more in a weenie band. The Cape looks pretty good right now and so do areas in SE MA west of them. This should be a pretty fun nowcast for them.

 

I still won't be shocked to see another good burst as the LL convergence increases overnight,. but again,. don't actually expect it. Be happy if it happens.

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Jan 21 ans still well under 10 inches in and around Boston...wow

BOS probably now has about 7.5-8 counting today and pressing there's. bit more left. Mby has around 14. Most areas are >10. And it's 1/21. In 1999-00, the first flake was mid January and they still ended up with 25. The pattern as depicted will deliver. You weenies make me want to vomit.

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Bro - three people live on the cape

 

He's right, I live down here and this isn't exciting.  The kids are going to be pissed unless we can get this band off NJ and over LI to lift more as the low develops. 

 

I'm eyeballing almost 3" in Acushnet. Just came back from Bourne which was around 2" about an hour ago

 

I'm on the border, I'm absolutely certain we only have 1.5" from here to the bridge as I was down there not long ago for a quick errand sadly carrying a ruler.   It's just very light snow here right now:

 

http://www.capecodlivecam.com/bourne.shtml

 

 

Hoping to see more in this next band

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