Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 4" now. Has tapered off. IMG_0167.JPGIMG_0165.JPGIMG_0166.JPG nice Blair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nantucket is cleaning up lately. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 RGEM/GGEM were probably best again but I was only paying half attention, didn't have much faith in this when the Euro/GGEM seemed so meh. This dry push that ripped across the south coast makes me want to puke. I had the lowest of expectations when essentially every outlet had me getting a lot of snow and even I'm bummed For a decent part of the Cape this storm is about the same or even less than the one the other day. Bigger for me...I'm stuck at 1.6" with heavy bright moonage. i figured 2-4" for you and still pretty much feel you'll reach that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nice pics Blair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Nope. Why not? I think BOX is smarter than you. Baha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 You know you are a little disappointed now. 14" is abysmal for your area at this late juncture, and 25" is only like 60% of climo for Boston. I agree that we'll make somewhat of a comeback in the next couple of weeks, but I'm not convinced it's going to be significant enough to wipe out the poor start to winter. No argument Nate. But you can't change what's done. I've been through some bad winters that came back memorably. Will this be one? We'll know in about 2 weeks. BOS wild have to get about 35 inches from here on out to normalize. Tall order but OT impossible by any means. And as far as my 14 inches, it's 4x what I had last tuner to date and about 1/4 of 2010-11 to date. We have variable winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 0z hrrr-arw says umm no nada , not even SE nh or SW maine and kills cape stuff by midnite. little band moves thru ct/ri and central mass passes thru , but the norlun gets going OFF the coast of NH and just has a little party offshore. 0z nam has jack waiting on 0z BTV WRF then i'll move to the next. I got my girlfriend to stay over her sisters house in salem/ma right by the water for this event tonite, and i don't have high hopes of jack. Box discussion actually looked like a stretch just to maintain continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 26.4/24 - Light Snow began again about 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Why not? I think BOX is smarter than you. Baha Eh, maybe some light snows, but nuisance stuff. I see what they mean, but I think it's too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Have no idea what BOX is talking about. LOL... appreciated that. The pressure drops and rebuilding qpf along a convergence zone were shown on the RAP a few cycles ago... 1z RAP, literally nothing in MA north of very southeast. I don't think a single piece of guidance supports the 10:23pm forecast map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 LOL... appreciated that. The pressure drops and rebuilding qpf along a convergence zone were shown on the RAP a few cycles ago... 1z RAP, literally nothing in MA north of very southeast. I don't think a single piece of guidance supports the 10:23pm forecast map. This is quickly becoming a 2-4 inch storm from the Neponset SE to almost the south coast. NW burbs get the ultimate shaft here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 No argument Nate. But you can't change what's done. I've been through some bad winters that came back memorably. Will this be one? We'll know in about 2 weeks. BOS wild have to get about 35 inches from here on out to normalize. Tall order but OT impossible by any means. And as far as my 14 inches, it's 4x what I had last tuner to date and about 1/4 of 2010-11 to date. We have variable winters. The bottom line is that Boston has received less than 15 inches of snow since February 2nd of 2011. That Chicago blizzard that brought Boston about 5-6 inches was the last moderate snowstorm that the city saw and in two week it will be two years to the day. It;s not just Boston though...the entire US east of the Mississippi has had an incredibly snowless two years. Every major city is below average...some way below average. It has still yet to snow in Chicago. Baltimore, DC, Philly less than 4 inches each. NYC about 5. Boston 8. About the same as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=ALB&isingle=single&itype=ir that area of cooler cloud tops correlates well with where the composite loop is starting to pick up better returns. not sure if the composite is any good at picking up norlun snows http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&loop=no&rid=box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Have no idea what BOX is talking about. I've noticed BOX likes to hold out hope for their forecasts for a long time even when this board knows a bust is incoming. The thing is, this didn't have to be as big of a bust. Sure NE mass is going to bust as EVERYONE thought there was high potential there. But even I only thought like 2-3 for me. BOX's widespread 3-5 just didn't make sense to me. But whatever. .7" in Shrewsbury. Maybe we can get a weenie .3 later to pull of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The bottom line is that Boston has received less than 15 inches of snow since February 2nd of 2011. That Chicago blizzard that brought Boston about 5-6 inches was the last moderate snowstorm that the city saw and in two week it will be two years to the day. It;s not just Boston though...the entire US east of the Mississippi has had an incredibly snowless two years. Every major city is below average...some way below average. It has still yet to snow in Chicago. Baltimore, DC, Philly less than 4 inches each. NYC about 5. Boston 8. About the same as last year. I understand your point, but at least be somewhat accurate when you try to describe it. KBOS had 10.4" from the Chicago Blizzard.....and since that they have recieved 26.6"...16.3" the last two years combined (not including tonight) and 10.3" the remaining winter of 2010-2011 after the Feb 1-2 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 i figured 2-4" for you and still pretty much feel you'll reach that I figured there was a chance for even less, under an inch. So I'm not terribly disappointed but literally this was a slam dunk day off for the kids based on all the public forecasts. Meh. Hopefully we can fire up another inch or two. Your chances are much better than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've noticed BOX likes to hold out hope for their forecasts for a long time even when this board knows a bust is incoming. The thing is, this didn't have to be as big of a bust. Sure NE mass is going to bust as EVERYONE thought there was high potential there. But even I only thought like 2-3 for me. BOX's widespread 3-5 just didn't make sense to me. But whatever. .7" in Shrewsbury. Maybe we can get a weenie .3 later to pull of an inch. honestly i didn't have high confidence in NE mass. I did have confidence portsmouth to york maine would get 3-6+ , or at the least a band of that in that area. that area would be the real bust if this doesn't produce. The box map/disco is riding an hourly forecast of the rap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I've noticed BOX likes to hold out hope for their forecasts for a long time even when this board knows a bust is incoming. The thing is, this didn't have to be as big of a bust. Sure NE mass is going to bust as EVERYONE thought there was high potential there. But even I only thought like 2-3 for me. BOX's widespread 3-5 just didn't make sense to me. But whatever. .7" in Shrewsbury. Maybe we can get a weenie .3 later to pull of an inch. I think the NWS was more covering their ground than trying to be the hero. Smart move on their end imo. These are boom/bust type systems so you have to take it for what's it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's just the pattern we've been in. We've had some crazy big time storms and now we relax. Good...that's how mother nature takes care of business...and we don't have to hear about AGW slammed down our throats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=ALB&isingle=single&itype=ir that area of cooler cloud tops correlates well with where the composite loop is starting to pick up better returns. not sure if the composite is any good at picking up norlun snows http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&loop=no&rid=box It's obvious on the higher res radar too. The precip is moving in different directions based on level, synoptic snows are shooting east, whatever that other crap is, is moving more north. 0z hrrr-arw says umm no nada , not even SE nh or SW maine and kills cape stuff by midnite. little band moves thru ct/ri and central mass passes thru , but the norlun gets going OFF the coast of NH and just has a little party offshore. 0z nam has jack waiting on 0z BTV WRF then i'll move to the next. I got my girlfriend to stay over her sisters house in salem/ma right by the water for this event tonite, and i don't have high hopes of jack. Box discussion actually looked like a stretch just to maintain continuity. What about the SREFs? Hopefully someone stays up for those. I hope they show me in the 0% chance for any snow at all for this next one, best place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Wicked small snow flakes or dandruff lol ..... eye balling almost 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's obvious on the higher res radar too. The precip is moving in different directions based on level, synoptic snows are shooting east, whatever that other crap is, is moving more north. What about the SREFs? Hopefully someone stays up for those. I hope they show me in the 0% chance for any snow at all for this next one, best place to be I'm relatively exhausted but currently fascinated, we'll see how long I last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I think the NWS was more covering their ground than trying to be the hero. Smart move on their end imo. These are boom/bust type systems so you have to take it for what's it's worth. Sure, and the NWS is great. Meteorology is rough...at least I got close to an inch here. Almost every tv met will take heat tomorrow. Working in this field can really suck haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 It's just the pattern we've been in. We've had some crazy big time storms and now we relax. Good...that's how mother nature takes care of business...and we don't have to hear about AGW slammed down our throats. A good stretch sometimes makes people believe they average 140% of climo. We always have to remind people how much worse it can get...and most of them were too young to remember those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 I figured there was a chance for even less, under an inch. So I'm not terribly disappointed but literally this was a slam dunk day off for the kids based on all the public forecasts. Meh. Hopefully we can fire up another inch or two. Your chances are much better than mine. RADAR looks decent off to the south. we'll see how it goes over the night. my kids have been sick for days and i'm pretty sleep deprived...but will probably check back in an hour or two after getting some rest. only area i think i'll bust bad with is the Outer Cape as i think it'll be tough for the PVC to CHH area to reach the 6" range. rest should be OK with general 2-4, 3-6 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 is there any chance the Merrimack valley still gets a couple of inches? It seems really unlikely at this point. Barely a coating here and clear skies. Radar looks quite too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Flakes have begun again, extremely light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 METS or other intelligent folk, on the SPC meso scale analysis page what is a good indicator to look at for where best convergence is setting up as we go hour by hour and where norlun band will set up (wether offshore or not) . much thanks and if you could mention what drop down box it's under would be much appreciate just trying to learn and help understand the now casting of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A good stretch sometimes makes people believe they average 140% of climo. We always have to remind people how much worse it can get...and most of them were too young to remember those times. Agreed...I've heard the public this year say that it sucks that this winter has been so cold but so little snow in Worcester. So clearly they have no idea. We have near average snow and temps +5 for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 A good stretch sometimes makes people believe they average 140% of climo. We always have to remind people how much worse it can get...and most of them were too young to remember those times. doesn't even matter - people would complain regardless. i'm just glad this week looks wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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