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January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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It wasn't the Norlun that busted. It was the models that forecast a Norlun that in reality was a itty bitty band of snow as correctly ( mostly ) forecast by non ncep guidance and the forecasters that ignored that believing the meso models were picking up on something the king was missing.

I'm waiting for Tips proclamation that this was wishcasting that led to days and days of talk when if someone ripped and read the Euro it was really nbd for most like last time ;)

HRRR did okay again. Rap not so much.

Ratios saved the day for many.

At 11 last night a few ocm were still using that flaky meso model showing heavy snow on cape Ann. Lol. I hate to say it one problem is the reliance on that thing lately.

Anyway moving on, anyone have the SREF probabilities for the next one?

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Missed it. What'd they say?

 

 

This thread is hilarious.

 

Box update 10pm

Highlight the lull we commented on a while back and the rebuilding seen on the RAP:

10 PM update... broad scale snowfall has gradually shifted to a more narrow and heavier band of snow focused along a band of moderate low-middle level fgen from southern Li to Cape Cod. This may mean a break for much of the area for this point. The focus now is on the energy Transfer from this band of fgen to the convergent norlun trough which is beginning to establish itself just offshore per latest pressure falls. As this Transfer occurs...suspect the band to the S will gradually lift somewhat to the north with time weakening and falling mostly within the I-495 corridor. The band has already produced some localized areas of 3+ inches of snow...so still could be a good bit of snow for the aforementioned locations. Regional infrared satellite already also showing the beginning signs of this Transfer as cloud tops are currently cooling north of the area of heaviest banding. Mesoscale models are still not as agreeable as one would like for an already ongoing event. However...one note they are in fair agreement on is the northward shift mentioned in the previous paragraph. Rap especially is showing the filling band in CT and northern Rhode Island beginning to take over and shift north gradually through about the 09z timeframe once the norlun fully takes over. Have adjusted probability of precipitation/weather closer to this latest thinking
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Nothing, challenging forecast. I will forever be cautious on norluns from now on.

Welcome to the club. I learned that lesson a long time ago. They can bust either way, and I don't envy the mets who have to go on record with forecasts for them. Predictably, I've heard a lot of chatter this morning about the "blown" forecast. And everyone will now be highly skeptical of any Friday storm.

 

Finally did see about 6 tiny flakes a little while ago. Sun is now out.

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Welcome to the club. I learned that lesson a long time ago. They can bust either way, and I don't envy the mets who have to go on record with forecasts for them. Predictably, I've heard a lot of chatter this morning about the "blown" forecast. And everyone will now be highly skeptical of any Friday storm.

 

Finally did see about 6 tiny flakes a little while ago. Sun is now out.

 

The only skeptical ones will be the ones that don't understand meteorology which for the most part the general public, Fridays sytem has no similarities to this one as far as a trough goes, Obviously if don't get some type of phase we could end up with a suppressed system, But i don't think that will be the case as most of the models do show some phasing

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