January 21/22 Storm Obs/Nowcast

[forkyfork]

You missed this one.

11th hour change

[ackwaves]

Taken before the wind picked up.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

You missed this one.

Of course. That's what trolls do

[forkyfork]

Of course. That's what trolls do

bold of you to make a call after the event ended

[Damage In Tolland]

bold of you to make a call after the event ended

Wherecwas your forecast? We must have missed it

[grinch1989]

.5" was my total after getting into a few hours of a decent band yesterday afternoon....

[ORH_wxman]

Inverted troughs/norlun type setups are inherently very difficult to forecast. There's a reason you saw a lot of waffling in the models over it. I'd have to say the RGEM did the best though if you go back and look at all the guidance. It never had much more than an inch or 2 save for the Cape or far southern areas. I don't recall it being bullish on the southern Maine idea either.

 

But its easier to say you should have followed the RGEM this time in hindsight...it has had its share of busts too. The next time another inverted trough/norlun event comes up, the same idiosyncrasies will apply.

[Wonkis]

1.5" here. Strange granular/icy surface underneath on the walks - maybe a product of the snow hitting the pavement that was preheated from the weekend's torch?

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Ended up with a coating.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Taken before the wind picked up.

 

IMG_0169.JPG

 

Lost in all of this is you having a very good winter...congrats and get ready for the next one.

 

Inverted troughs/norlun type setups are inherently very difficult to forecast. There's a reason you saw a lot of waffling in the models over it. I'd have to say the RGEM did the best though if you go back and look at all the guidance. It never had much more than an inch or 2 save for the Cape or far southern areas. I don't recall it being bullish on the southern Maine idea either.

 

But its easier to say you should have followed the RGEM this time in hindsight...it has had its share of busts too. The next time another inverted trough/norlun event comes up, the same idiosyncrasies will apply.

 

Eh...I don't think it was that hard when the two models that have mostly done the best lately were never on board for significant snows.  IF we removed the NCEP guidance from the equation I think most of the even optimistic forecasts would have been half of what they were.  It's not like the norlun missed, it was a pathetic norlun to being with as forecast by the other models.  People outright dismissed the Euro in favor of meso models with all sorts of reasons as to why without considering the reason the Euro didn't have the norlun dump wasn't because of its resolution but because the norlun was going to be weak.

[ORH_wxman]

Eh...I don't think it was that hard when the two models that have mostly done the best lately were never on board for significant snows.  IF we removed the NCEP guidance from the equation I think most of the even optimistic forecasts would have been half of what they were.  It's not like the norlun missed, it was a pathetic norlun to being with as forecast by the other models.  People outright dismissed the Euro in favor of meso models with all sorts of reasons as to why without considering the reason the Euro didn't have the norlun dump wasn't because of its resolution but because the norlun was going to be weak.

 

 

Euro busted too...it had a solid 0.15" for a chunk of E MA...most areas got about a quarter of that or less.

 

 

That said, I never bought into the huge totals either and forecast 1-3 here. I would have gone 3-5" even back here if I did (NAM was pretty consistently even giving more than that). I did think someone lucky would get 6"+ though and that never materialized. Euro has never done very well with norluns either, so its a lot easier to say to follow it in hindsight. It had two terrible busts (too low) on inverted trough/norlun events in the past few winters.

[Quincy]

Inverted troughs/norlun type setups are inherently very difficult to forecast. There's a reason you saw a lot of waffling in the models over it. I'd have to say the RGEM did the best though if you go back and look at all the guidance. It never had much more than an inch or 2 save for the Cape or far southern areas. I don't recall it being bullish on the southern Maine idea either.

 

But its easier to say you should have followed the RGEM this time in hindsight...it has had its share of busts too. The next time another inverted trough/norlun event comes up, the same idiosyncrasies will apply.

I did notice this with the RGEM. I really think that it tends to be fairly consistent with respect to verification, even though it has had some busts like you mentioned. I can't recall too many times where the RGEM had an outlandish solution that turned into a major bust.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I did notice this with the RGEM. I really think that it tends to be fairly consistent with respect to verification, even though it has had some busts like you mentioned. I can't recall too many times where the RGEM had an outlandish solution that turned into a major bust.

 

RGEM rarely goes gangbusters only to back down.  Almost never does actually.

 

Euro busted too...it had a solid 0.15" for a chunk of E MA...most areas got about a quarter of that or less.

 

 

That said, I never bought into the huge totals either and forecast 1-3 here. I would have gone 3-5" even back here if I did (NAM was pretty consistently even giving more than that). I did think someone lucky would get 6"+ though and that never materialized. Euro has never done very well with norluns either, so its a lot easier to say to follow it in hindsight. It had two terrible busts (too low) on inverted trough/norlun events in the past few winters.

 

Weren't most of the Euro runs pretty meh in general though? 

[ORH_wxman]

 

 

 

Weren't most of the Euro runs pretty meh in general though? 

 

Yeah they were...still too bullish though. But it certainly performed much better than the NAM/SREFs...and those late runs of the GFS which gave larger scale synoptic snows. I was mostly just pointing out that even the models that performed better still had their issues. I would def give the RGEM the shiney gold star for this past event.

[SouthCoastMA]

SREFS had 45% probabilities of 8" within 12 hours of the event. That's an epic bust

[ORH_wxman]

 

SREFS had 45% probabilities of 8" within 12 hours of the event. That's an epic bust

 

SREFs have had an absolutely brutal winter. This is the worst I have seen them perform over a long stretch (6+ weeks) since their upgrade a few years ago.

[Tropopause_Fold]

  

SREFs have had an absolutely brutal winter. This is the worst I have seen them perform over a long stretch (6+ weeks) since their upgrade a few years ago.

i wonder if part of that is due to the fact that the rsm and eta members have been replaced. perhaps the older physics/lower resolution of those members help offset things a bit. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Lost in all of this is you having a very good winter...congrats and get ready for the next one.

 

 

Eh...I don't think it was that hard when the two models that have mostly done the best lately were never on board for significant snows.  IF we removed the NCEP guidance from the equation I think most of the even optimistic forecasts would have been half of what they were.  It's not like the norlun missed, it was a pathetic norlun to being with as forecast by the other models.  People outright dismissed the Euro in favor of meso models with all sorts of reasons as to why without considering the reason the Euro didn't have the norlun dump wasn't because of its resolution but because the norlun was going to be weak.

it's not weak though - check a satellite. it's pretty wild looking. 

[ORH_wxman]

 

i wonder if part of that is due to the fact that the rsm and eta members have been replaced. perhaps the older physics/lower resolution of those members help offset things a bit. 

 

Yeah I forgot they had a more recent upgrade than their initial one a few years ago. That could definitely be part of it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

  

Yeah they were...still too bullish though. But it certainly performed much better than the NAM/SREFs...and those late runs of the GFS which gave larger scale synoptic snows. I was mostly just pointing out that even the models that performed better still had their issues. I would def give the RGEM the shiney gold star for this past event.

I think the RGEM probably got the star the other day too..their maps sometimes make it tough.

 

i wonder if part of that is due to the fact that the rsm and eta members have been replaced. perhaps the older physics/lower resolution of those members help offset things a bit. 

 

I think it is.  I'm pretty sure I read about this on another board awhile back, there has to be an explanation, they're basically useless right now.

 

it's not weak though - check a satellite. it's pretty wild looking. 

 

Poor choice of words, offshore would have been better.  The euro had it kind of all along, just never close enough to really matter.  This is yesterdays 12z for a few hours ago.

[dendrite]

Yeah I forgot they had a more recent upgrade than their initial one a few years ago. That could definitely be part of it.

This is the first winter with all WRF members. It's rendering the snow probs almost useless.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Random tidbit...Upton posted on their facebook last night they had 1.5" of snow at their office with 0.03" QPF...50:1 ratio. 

[Ginx snewx]

I busted in the northern zones with 2-4 but happy with the LI to Cape call. Fickle finger of fate. 1 inch on the nose here.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This is the first winter with all WRF members. It's rendering the snow probs almost useless.

 

Yeah that's what I read, think I asked Will about it a few days ago when they busted on the cape event.  Horrible, talk about a step backward.

[mfastx]

Finished with about 0.3" here..  Most of it's gone by now, shady areas still have a coatinng.

[Tropopause_Fold]

no BL problems BostonWx by-the-way. not close.