Southern Track Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 If I were a betttin man i'd say the models will go back to a storm for us in a day or two and probably cold as well.That's the way it's been all winter long.One day the models show everyone getting storm ,and everyone gets excited,Next day doesn't look as good then by day 3 people are talking about jumping off cliff.Not sure what that will prove by jumping off cliffs.Then 2 dys later another storm pops back up.The snow we got last week wasn't suppoes to happen here.The forecast was for it to hit the Mid Atlantic .It was there one day gone the next .Even some had it as a Miller B.I've never seen the models with this much problem the whole season.And were not done yet. Would love to believe it so, but it's late February, and the PNA, AO, and NAO are all against us. So it's looking likely that if you're the Mid-Atlantic south, you should get ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Only real shot at this point is a mega-phaser or a bowling ball cutoff dynamic driven event. Still have 3 to 4 weeks where snow is possible. So time to watch for something maybe, but the odds aren't great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm sure some will look at hour 228 on the 18z but that just isn't going to cut it. Basically a cold chasing moisture thing. By the way I dropped my Euro subscription for the spring/summer since I'm a winter weenie. So if something does come up I won't be doing the PBP on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Some are speculating that we are entering a cooler period with a return to winters seen in the 60s and 70s (I am skeptical of that)...I don't know about Robert but I believe Joe is on that path and he is not the only one. As you have been saying...most did not get this winter correct even in November so it is probably not a good idea to forecast next winter in February! I just hope that everyone recognizes that ENSO is far from a perfect tool to characterize an upcoming season....the last two winters have proven that out. either way he can't be as bad as this winter. Of course we did get some `salting in Sunday and Monday. I have never had a winter that we didn't have some kind of snow or ice to control. So this past little storm kept streak alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm sure some will look at hour 228 on the 18z but that just isn't going to cut it. Basically a cold chasing moisture thing. By the way I dropped my Euro subscription for the spring/summer since I'm a winter weenie. So if something does come up I won't be doing the PBP on the Euro. Lol, I cancelled mine today also. If for some reason we do get a storm it'll be hard not having access to the euro. Oh well, I'll pick it back up in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Most got winter wrong ALL WINTER! As late as the end of January, folks on this board were forecasting a cold February. Winters like this one separate the wishcasters from the forecasters, imo. Kudos to those who stood their ground and didn't cave to the idea that it has to get cold sooner or later. Clearly, this winter proved that it doesn't. Some are speculating that we are entering a cooler period with a return to winters seen in the 60s and 70s (I am skeptical of that)...I don't know about Robert but I believe Joe is on that path and he is not the only one. As you have been saying...most did not get this winter correct even in November so it is probably not a good idea to forecast next winter in February! I just hope that everyone recognizes that ENSO is far from a perfect tool to characterize an upcoming season....the last two winters have proven that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Most got winter wrong ALL WINTER! As late as the end of January, folks on this board were forecasting a cold February. Winters like this one separate the wishcasters from the forecasters, imo. Kudos to those who stood their ground and didn't cave to the idea that it has to get cold sooner or later. Clearly, this winter proved that it doesn't. I don't think anyone forsaw the AO being as positive as it turned out to be. That's the overwhelming reason this winter was warm. I can only think of one forecast that got it right. The more I see about the sunspot-AO relationship, the more I believe that's where the future of seasonal forecasting lies. If we are indeed heading towards a generational sunspot low in the coming years then winters will be colder, that's a pretty accepted belief. I also personally believe a lot of the global warming hype will wane in the future if this turns out to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I don't think anyone forsaw the AO being as positive as it turned out to be. That's the overwhelming reason this winter was warm. I can only think of one forecast that got it right. The more I see about the sunspot-AO relationship, the more I believe that's where the future of seasonal forecasting lies. If we are indeed heading towards a generational sunspot low in the coming years then winters will be colder, that's a pretty accepted belief. I also personally believe a lot of the global warming hype will wane in the future if this turns out to be true. Very good post! I agree 100%. Never did buy into that global warming business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The 00Z Euro looks pretty impressive for two severe events in the South, Wednesday and again Friday-Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The 00Z Euro looks pretty impressive for two severe events in the South, Wednesday and again Friday-Saturday. Been chatting with Fred about this and the second one looks especially nasty. Moisture return is looking like a non-issue at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 The 00Z Euro looks pretty impressive for two severe events in the South, Wednesday and again Friday-Saturday. Severe in what way? thunderstorms or snow? explain further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Severe in what way? thunderstorms or snow? explain further. If there were two snow events coming up, there would be four more pages of posts....at least! Fri/Sat def has my interest severe-wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Someone should go ahead and create a new severe thread for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Some are speculating that we are entering a cooler period with a return to winters seen in the 60s and 70s (I am skeptical of that)...I don't know about Robert but I believe Joe is on that path and he is not the only one. As you have been saying...most did not get this winter correct even in November so it is probably not a good idea to forecast next winter in February! I just hope that everyone recognizes that ENSO is far from a perfect tool to characterize an upcoming season....the last two winters have proven that out. I got it right in november, I said this winter would suck quite a few times then and all along and I was right I'm ready for spring. Nothing I hate more than cold in march and april though which I have a feeling we will get frequent shots of. Which of course will lead to no snow but just annoyingly cool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Five hours and no posts. I see we've given up. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Here's a little bit of interest; mostly cold chasing rain but this is something that can trend in our favor. 12 GFS at 183: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I got it right in november, I said this winter would suck quite a few times then and all along and I was right Yeah. Back in late November I went by my old school. Since I was the "winter weather expert" there back in the day, several asked me about the upcoming winter. I just said they should not count on missing any school this year. I guess i didn't damage my rep because they haven't even had a one hour delay the whole winter. Last Monday was a holiday so I even dodged that one. It's good to be the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah. Back in late November I went by my old school. Since I was the "winter weather expert" there back in the day, several asked me about the upcoming winter. I just said they should not count on missing any school this year. I guess i didn't damage my rep because they haven't even had a one hour delay the whole winter. Last Monday was a holiday so I even dodged that one. It's good to be the king. After the 15th of March, and nothing on the models, I will call it over. Basically 2 more weeks and winter will be done (outside the mountains). I am not looking forward to summer at all. Let's hope it's a cool one. At least I did see some snow. So, I can't call it a shut-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 not giving up.. still think we will see a snow event in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This is the first winter ever where I don't think we even were threatened by a decent snow event even once. Typically in a bad winter, we have at least one shot of a decent snowstorm, even if it leaves us disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Here's a little bit of interest; mostly cold chasing rain but this is something that can trend in our favor. 12 GFS at 183: I don't really see much of any way that one can do us well as it looks pretty much like a cold front blowing through to me. It's not even a Lakes Cutter; it's more like a Quebec Cutter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I don't really see much of any way that one can do us well as it looks pretty much like a cold front blowing through to me. It's not even a Lakes Cutter; it's more like a Quebec Cutter! I definiltly agree now, Looking at the 18z GFS (just rolling in) and there is some cold air showing up at day 7. Looks like a quick two day shot but the point is there is still cold air pushing into the SE. So in short, we're in the ninth inning but the games still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I definiltly agree now, Looking at the 18z GFS (just rolling in) and there is some cold air showing up at day 7. Looks like a quick two day shot but the point is there is still cold air pushing into the SE. So in short, we're in the ninth inning but the games still on. I hope there is at least a little suprise but, I have the same feeling that we are going into the ninth inning down by several runs and we have to try and come back against the best closer in the game mariano rivera. Not looking very good at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I definiltly agree now, Looking at the 18z GFS (just rolling in) and there is some cold air showing up at day 7. Looks like a quick two day shot but the point is there is still cold air pushing into the SE. So in short, we're in the ninth inning but the games still on. I will be in Florida from March 3rd - March 10th. Look for a winter storm in that time frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Goofy not offering much rain in the foreward look....and the best low it can find for me is 38. Still wintry, but not by much. If it verifys I'll savour the memory of it come some July night Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 00z shows a big storm rolling up the coast leaving some snow in it's wake. Unfortunately it's in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nooooo! Don't make me come back from VT please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm surprised eastern NC guys aren't talking about the last few runs of the euro. It's been pretty consistent with closing off a 5h low just off the coast at the beginning of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm surprised eastern NC guys aren't talking about the last few runs of the euro. It's been pretty consistent with closing off a 5h low just off the coast at the beginning of next week. Were on it, trust me... Still 8 days out, but it has been consistent over the past 2 days in showing a coastal, not much QPF, even along the obx, just something to keep an eye on at t his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I will be in Florida from March 3rd - March 10th. Look for a winter storm in that time frame! yep showing a snowstorm march 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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