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Southeast Mid/Long Range Discussion III


Marion_NC_WX

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Just to reiterate, the 6Z/18Z DGEX is a 90-192 hour extension to the 84 hour 6Z/18Z NAM. Keeping in mind the tendency for the 84 hour NAM to be quite inaccurate vs., say, the 84 hour GFS or 84 hour Euro, I always take the DGEX with a huge grain of salt...i.e., just pure entertainment.

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Possibly the best looking member out of all of the 18z GFS ensemble members. I haven't seen this kind of fantasy depicted since the 0z GFS's 384 New Year's image, and sadly that's all this is: Fantasy but wouldn't it be such a twist if this happened despite the horrible winter? Figured I post for the entertainment.

That's a disappointment...I'm only in the 18 to 20 inch range and a few counties to my west are getting 25 inches. That just isn't right! :P

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Here are some reasons I think we have a shot at something next week

  • patterns tend to repeat themselves and the situation next week looks similar to that of this past weekend
  • Surface high pressure for next week looks a bit stronger than what we just had
  • There will be much colder air on this side of the pole this time around.

TW

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In looking at past storms, this one is the most impressive that I've found with respect to widespread, large accumulations across the state. Where did you get that map if you don't mind me asking?

I got the map from the AMS Journals Online. The map is actually total monthly snowfall for March 1927, but it gives a good representation of the snow that accumulated during that snowstorm since no snow fell, with the possible exception of the mountains, for the rest of the month.

Eric,

It is AWESOME to see you posting! Long time-no see Bro! I hope all is well!

I make a cameo appearance every now and then. ;) I hope you are doing good.

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6z GFS has back to back app runners for mid to late next week on this run. Climo wise the next 2 weeks are normally the back end of winter outside the mtns minus the rare occasions such as March 1960. Seems like where due a first week of March storm. Anyway check out south Texas latter this week, cold really makes a deep run for late February, even though it's transient.

06zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county084.gif

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I like that the Euro still has an alright pattern at least for the Carolinas. We'll be threading the needle again but if we can eek out one widespread good event that'll be good. Plus it's always fun to watch and analyze. BTW the Canadian doesn't look good. No real cold air to work with in the 180 - 240 time frame.

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Looks like what Foothills was talking about earlier in the season. If I recall, he was confident that a cut-off would deliver a big snowstorm to someone before this winter was over. If future runs pick up on this, and if other members get on board with the idea, we should name it "The Robert Storm". Will be interesting to watch this unfold.

I'm afraid we just had the Robert Storm. We can still hope for another though. :santa:

This weekend looks interesting for the mountain regions to see some upslope snow. Might just be light but still nice to snow flying in the air.

Agree; and, ironically while the Coast may still be storming. Lingering moisture and a real 850 temp crash behind the front should bring the northwest NC mountains accumulating upslope snow above 3,500 FT. Edit: Little s/w through WV could try to concentrate moisture up that way, and delay best wind direction over NC mtns Friday eve. However I expect a few hours of sticking snow showers for northwest NC mtns late Friday night into pre-dawn Sat. :ski:

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