weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Srefs are not useful beyond 36 hours. People insist though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 its over srefs way south.......... Not really. We do not need an inch of precip to have a decent snowfall. SREF delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Ok, move on guys, troll is suspended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 yep, they don't have the 7PM info like the 0Z models for those who may not have known that fact I never knew that Mitch thanks for the info, now i have to stay up until 3 a.m. so i can analyze a SREF run that is 2.5 days out from the storm. I think SREF stands for SHORT range ensemble forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 00z NAM looks like it's gonna try to phase a little more. NRN shortwave is starting to split off at 24hrs. Edit: big difference at 33hrs compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Think there's a few vorts on the NAM? lol - It's probably going to come a bit further north/quicker on this run - NAM is further west with the northern stream vort and more NE with the southern stream closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Think there's a few vorts on the NAM? lol - It's probably going to come a bit further north/quicker on this run - NAM is further west with the northern stream vort and more NE with the southern stream closed low yeah, check out what's going on in Nebraska at 33 hrs looks to drop into the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM looks quite a bit different at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is going to be alot further north ... look at the heights out infront of the 500MB energy by 36... I hope not too far, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 7H isobar lines make me believe it will be north of 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This dude Hurley over at HPC wrote a fantastic essay about the impending system. I highlighted the more exciting concepts. In a nutshell, he isn't certain what will happen but he knows it will be really interesting. Hurley must be a snow weenie. .SRN OH VLY/NRN TN VLY/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATL... SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CA WILL MOVE ACROSS TX ENE INTO THE LOWER MID ATLC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD. HPC GENERALLY FAVORED A GFS-ECMWF-UKMET BLEND IN TERMS OF THE MASS FIELDS AND LARGE-SCALE FEATURES...AS THESE MODELS CLUSTERED RATHER WELL COMPARED TO THE NAM (SLOWER) AND CMC (MUCH SLOWER). IN ADDITION...ALSO A CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE NAM WAS THE BROAD EXTENT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TN AND PTNS OF THE LOWER MS VLY...RESULTING FROM THE SLOWER/DEEPER SOLN EARLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS WITH A BROADER CCB/BAROCLINIC LEAF/TROWAL STRUCTURE. AGAIN...WHAT IS RATHER CLEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE ABUNDANCE OF AVAILABLE AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT. 12Z GFS 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE AGAIN PROGGED AT LEAST 5 TIMES ABOVE AVG INTO THE SERN STATES ON DAY 3. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY LATER SAT INTO SUN MORNING UP THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATL REGION. MEANWHILE ALONG THE NRN STREAM...A WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DIG SEWRD INTO THE MID-ATL STATES. THE ASSCD STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE NE WILL SUPPLY LLVL COLD/DRY ADVECTION INTO THE MID ATLC REGION (INCREASED NRLY ISALOBARIC FLOW VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NRN JET). MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SRN STREAM JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHENING THE S-N AGEOS FLOW AND MSTR/THETA-E ADVECTION ALOFT. HOWEVER...POTENTIALLY COMPLICATING MATTERS WILL BE THE DEPTH OF THE LLVL DRY AIR. THE LATEST (12Z) ECMWF AND (18Z) NAM SHOW A SHARPENING S-N MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH THESE MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A FLATTER SYSTEM WITH MUCH LESS QPF INTO NRN VA/MD/SRN PA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE MILLER B TYPE SYSTEMS SOME 2-3 DAYS OUT...MULTIPLE COMPETING FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. FIRST IS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSTR DEPTH JUXTAPOSITIONED WITH THE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR...AS THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF SHOW A NARROWING STRIP OF MOD/HEAVY SNOW. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IN THE GULF WILL ALSO BECOME A FACTOR...THAT OF WHICH IS STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM (TIMING OF AMPLIFICATION/PHASING PROCESS AND DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION/ORIENTATION OF TROWAL AND CCB LEAF). THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS ALSO A CONCERN IN TERMS OF TOTAL QPF...THOUGH MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ELEVATED INSTBY FARTHER N. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A BROAD AREA OF MOD PROBS FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES ACROSS NRN/NW VA...SRN WV...AND ERN KY. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. HURLEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM looks quite a bit different at 500. Yes it does. And my ignorant thought would be that this ends up a wetter run, but, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The HP is also a little stronger this run 1028 vs 1026. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The northern stream has sped up compared to 18Z so it could imply that the storm will have more cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 As long as the confluence holds it can come up and in over the apps for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A big concern could be that convection in the Deep South steals the deep moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Given this is the NAM, who wants to bet it spits out 1"+ QPF for DC? Looks very juicy/better organized compared to 18z in addition to being further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Given this is the NAM, who wants to bet it spits out 1"+ QPF for DC? Looks very juicy/better organized compared to 18z in addition to being further north. I don't know about 1" Nik, but I'll be real surprised at anything under .6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 A fine line here, but the NAM is more intense has less northern stream squashing on the height field, but the NAM is suggesting more low level warm air advection and upper height rises, i.e., warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Given this is the NAM, who wants to bet it spits out 1"+ QPF for DC? Looks very juicy/better organized compared to 18z in addition to being further north. My concern is the ridge is moving east faster on this run. So the kicker may kick it east a little faster, and the earlier phasing may be irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This *appears* to be north of 18z. Looking like that band of modhvy might be making its way into DC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NAM might try and close off a 500MB low... its really energetic compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its def north of 18z...should bring a lot more qpf into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps are good thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps look pretty damn good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps look pretty damn good so far This is going to be a healthy run. Lots of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps look good! OK - Just agreeing here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Very cold and snowy thru hr 66 for DC. Wow, i'll take this and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Low in eastern TN, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powhatan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Temps look good for who Stormtracker? I'm in richmond and storm going north might mean more warm air/less cold air down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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