PhineasC Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The EURO is out and shows a progressive pattern. The low moves from WSW to ENE. Nothing is slowing it down and I'm guessing there will surely be a precipitation cut off and not much making it north of NYC. For MA: My rough guess is that daytime Sunday will feature a rain/snow non-accumulating mix and then by sunset, there will be 1 to 3 inch accumulations in the climatologically favored pattern with best amouts along and NW of the "Fall Line". Yeah, welcome to an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 the chances that a low bombs out to 992 and best deform sets up on an EZF - CHO - ROA axis are pretty slim imo I think that's the one thing that might be a good thing for DC area given where models are right now. With the confluence over New England, this will almost certain have a very sharp and strong band on the nrn edge. That's just how it works with these types of deals. So in your scenario which is certainly plausible..a 30 or 40 mile shift in 72 hrs could bring that into the city. We're not talking 6-10" by any means, but like Wes hinted at, would be the difference between a slushy inch where the trees are dripping water..and perhaps a few inches or slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yeah, welcome to an hour ago. Nothing is set in stone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJField Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cosgrove just posted saying this should hit everyone up to Portland ME...and should be a stronger storm Or Portland Oregon for that matter. sorry couldn't resist The Shining reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I think the chances of DCA getting 4"+ are slim....even if the guidance settled on a 4-7" event area wide, I'd expect DCA in this setup to put up a 2.9" lol- making a call to the .1? You're probably right too. I really enjoy your view and appreciate the daily dose you provide when we have threats. Part of the art is gut instinct and at times I think your gut out performs the models. When wes mentioned earlier about the models having a "hiccup" I went back to all the 500 panels and analyzed to the best of my limited ability so I could try and predict the direction of the "hiccup" and I was right this time. I felt that any jog that would make us unhappy would be one to the south. I'm not sure the euro is really a "hiccup" because it could be right but at least my hunch from this morning was right. At the very least, I like the fact that the potential for the system getting pulled too far north is just about off the table. With the ns vort clearly staying out in front of the ss one, we don't really have to worry about the storm phasing in a way that pulls it inland and overhead. We don't really have a big block up north that can just flex its muscle and push everything of the nc coast while we have sunshine either. I'm pretty much in your camp and feel the same way. The odds do favor the storm to evolve similar to the 12z gfs and not the 12z euro. I do expect (if not tonight) tomorrow's model runs to pretty much agree on putting us in the proverbial blue stripe. The best part about being a weenie is that if I'm wrong, nobody will care much but those are my thoughts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 GSP AFD from NC says the 12Z Euro initialized poorly so it should be taken with a grain of salt From GSP ...12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING SYSTEM FOR SAT-SUN WITH THE SLOWER NAM POORLY INITIALZED AND CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE 12 ECMWF ALSO INITLIALZED POORLY SO IT WAS NOT USED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 We do! Just get a job here Yea the 12z Euro grazes DC but no reason to whine, the precip gradient is tight so a relatively small adjustment north with a bit more of an expanded precip field like the GFS and DC is in business. I probably missed my calling in life but it's a heck of a fun hobby anyway. I read a met 101 text in college just for fun (i'm part geek I think). Didn't take a single science class though. I love having access to boards like this. Where else can you speak directly to mets and bounce ideas off them? I plan of working e-wood this spring for severe analysis. Just started kicking the tires last year but I think this year I'll keep the hobby alive after march 15th. I agree with most peoples assessments of the euro run. Close enough to not freak out in any way. I don't even know why we ever expect models to stick to a solution for days and not jump around a bit. We all want them too but man, it's never gonna happen and I'm never gonna learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Perfext weekedn for this! PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 523 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...NWS STERLING RADAR KLWX DUAL-POLARIZATION UPGRADE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE... THE STERLING VIRGINIA WSR-88D RADAR /KLWX/ WILL BE DOWN FOR AN UPGRADE TO DUAL-POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY /DUAL-POL/ STARTING THIS FRIDAY - FEBRUARY 17TH...THROUGH FRIDAY - FEBRUARY 24TH. THE PREVIOUS SCHEDULE WAS FOR THE INSTALLATION TO OCCUR THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF MARCH 2012. WHILE THE RADAR IS DOWN FOR THESE UPGRADES...NEIGHBORING WSR-88D RADARS THAT WILL BE UTILIZED ARE... KDOX - DOVER DE KAKQ - WAKEFIELD VA KFCX - ROANOKE VA KRLX - CHARLESTON WV KPBZ - PITTSBURGH PA KCTP - STATE COLLEGE PA KDIX - MT HOLLY NJ TWO OF THESE NEIGHBORING RADARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO DUAL- POLARIZATION TECHNOLOGY: KPBZ - PITTSBURGH PA KDIX - MT HOLLY NJ TO SUPPLEMENT THE DATA SUITE...WE ALSO WILL USE THE FOLLOWING FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS /TDWRS/ DURING THE INSTALLATION PERIOD... TBWI - BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON TADW - ANDREWS AFB TDCA - REAGAN NATIONAL TIAD - DULLES DUAL-POL TECHNOLOGY OFFERS A NEW SET OF TOOLS TO BETTER DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN RAIN...SNOW...HAIL...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND NON-PRECIPITATION ECHOES. THIS UPGRADE PROVIDES FORECASTERS WITH BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES AND ENHANCED INFORMATION TO MORE EFFECTIVELY FORECAST SEVERE STORMS AND WINTER WEATHER. DUAL-POL UTILIZES A POLARMETRIC BEAM THAT DETECTS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION OF ATMOSPHERIC TARGETS. CONVENTIONAL RADAR ONLY DETECTS THE HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION. TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE DUAL POLARIZATION UPGRADE...AND FOR ACCESS TO DUAL-POL TRAINING FOR NON-NWS METEOROLOGISTS...PLEASE VISIT... WWW.WDTB.NOAA.GOV/COURSES/DUALPOL/OUTREACH - /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR MORE INFORMATION OR QUESTION...PLEASE CONTACT... GREG SCHOOR /RADAR OPERATIONS PROGRAM LEADER/ [email protected] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting note on the 15z SREFs. Note the SLP placement. See the orange? If I am reading that correctly, then a majority of the SREF members are placing are placing the SLP more north Probably a bit too close for our liking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 15Z SREFs are further north than last run this morning's run had .25" stopping at DCA/BWI while 15Z run has us almost half way between .25" and .5" lines I know all about the SREFs, but it's just more support for a possible north trend some of us are looking for and everyone in DCA/BWI are hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Interesting note on the 15z SREFs. Note the SLP placement. See the orange? If I am reading that correctly, then a majority of the SREF members are placing are placing the SLP more north Probably a bit too close for our liking though yeah, but moving the SLP closer to that orange circle would put DCA/BWI proper in the heavy bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro ens mean is good bit wetter than the op but further south than last night. .25"+ makes it to pa/md border with .5"+ right about DC and south. 1"+ far se va and into nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 FWIW the EC ensembles were pretty darn close with the MSLP when comparing it to the op. If you want to get picky, there was a little more of an inv trough or coastal front look north of the low on the ensembles, but I think it's not really anything important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wes will be happy with it for sure. on 2nd look, this morning's run didn't even have DCA/BWI into .25", so it's even better than I said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro ens mean is good bit wetter than the op but further south than last night. .25"+ makes it to pa/md border with .5"+ right about DC and south. 1"+ far se va and into nc. Yeah the circulation looked a bit better, probably why the precip was a little north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 euro ens mean is good bit wetter than the op but further south than last night. .25"+ makes it to pa/md border with .5"+ right about DC and south. 1"+ far se va and into nc. comparo: 0z had .5"+ into s pa. and precip into central ny. on 12z northern edge is in n pa. surface track similar to op but doesnt take the hard east turn at the nc outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 on 2nd look, this morning's run didn't even have DCA/BWI into .25", so it's even better than I said Yes it is MUCH better then the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 something is wrong with the NAM...it's only out to 12, even on my pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 15Z SREFs are further north than last run this morning's run had .25" stopping at DCA/BWI while 15Z run has us almost half way between .25" and .5" lines I know all about the SREFs, but it's just more support for a possible north trend some of us are looking for and everyone in DCA/BWI are hoping for I think trends are really the key. Today it seems to be waffling a bit. I think by tomorrow about this time, we'll have a much better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 something is wrong with the NAM...it's only out to 12, even on my pay site Probably got delayed.. I am out to 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that's pretty bullish for hpc.. they are usually more conservative than wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just saw this over at HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE LOW'S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF...WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE Just saw this over in the NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 that's pretty bullish for hpc.. they are usually more conservative than wes. They weren't for the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Wow.....aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 something is wrong with the NAM...it's only out to 12, even on my pay site I don't see anything in the logs and I'm not in the building today if they made any announcements. From the status page, it started on time but is definitely running slow. We've been having a lot of machine issues lately..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 They weren't for the last one. uh oh, Wes now you're getting it from above (HPC) and below (us) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't see anything in the logs and I'm not in the building today if they made any announcements. From the status page, it started on time but is definitely running slow. We've been having a lot of machine issues lately..... Thats what it probably is... its just really slow cause I have been stuck at 18 for the past 5-10 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 From Philly thread: For what it is worth the nam is running late for info on it use this. saying the 24 hour products is 15-30 minutes late. http://www.nco.ncep....dex.html#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thats what it probably is... its just really slow cause I have been stuck at 18 for the past 5-10 mins well, if the 60 hr. panel comes out with the word "WOOF" over VA, we know who hacked it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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