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baroclinic_instability

Moderator Meteorologist
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About baroclinic_instability

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Alaska
  • Interests
    Meteorology/Weather/Atmospheric Science

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  1. Yes. It seems that many in this day and age of instant satisfaction find it difficult to accept what they have/get and to be happy with it. Let the atmosphere tell the story. Of course, for those who are actually forecasting, they do NEED to pay attention to the small details, but here, this is going to be a pretty incredible storm regardless for the remainder who are simply watching and savoring (or...worrying).
  2. It is model sensitivity to deep convection. All the models are going to struggle here, and even the best will have potential large run-to-run issues with how deep convection alters the entire synoptic picture. It would be interesting to see how the higher res para ECMWF simulates the DMC as it becomes displaced to the east of the upper low center and more oriented with the coupled jet max. Either way, once again, this storm is going to be incredible and rather widespread for significant accums. Enjoy it, Alaska has suffered through 3 awful winters. At least you have something.
  3. IMHO, every intense storm has the potential for dryslotting to be a problem. It really takes a special scenario for the dry slot not to rear its ugly head. Regardless, it is just one model run, and it is still a helluva storm. To be totally fair, I will say I was unable to listen to the show, and those guys are top notch. Plus, I did not see the latest model guidance a few days ago--I am sure things were drastically different. Even looking back 3 ECMWF runs, the northern stream coupled jet was much better aligned a few runs ago, and it isn't a huge surprise (that the model depiction of the jet dynamics/orientation has changed so much) since this much deep convection can really completely throw off the model depictions of the relevant upper level/PV/jet stream fields.
  4. For those who want the ECMWF...it is thru 78 hours on wunderground. And there you can actually analyze what differences there are and why instead of just reading QPF totals. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap
  5. What the GFS/RGEM are simulating is the complete opposite...immense LHR aloft stalling the progression of the 500 hpa S/W trough through PV destruction, which keeps the deform band in place for hours. Tough call...it really is differences in model precip/convective/microphysics/physics schemes.
  6. The ECMWF is a tick north (but barely) on Wunderground at 33 hours. What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation).
  7. Sometimes y'all should just enjoy the mastery of the atmosphere and the incredible show that this is going to be. I see lots of worrying about snow ratios, the latest model QPF, etc. Just accept it for what it is, and you will probably enjoy it a helluva lot more. Be mindful and present of what truly complex processes the atmosphere is about to unleash. Analyze and process, think of what the atmosphere is doing while the event unfolds, and not always what the models are doing. Then when the snow flies, think of all the microphysical interactions that result in what you are experiencing and seeing. Don't worry about the end result, just enjoy the moment. For starters, this: words really don'y need to be added, and we have some incredible weather in AK.
  8. The para GFS has been dramatically better in the AK region where our weather patterns are dominated by strong diabatic lows moving in from the NPAC (especially this fall/winter), complex wave-wave, trough-trough, trough-wave mergers, and complex terrain interactions with the synoptic pattern (for instance, the effects of the AK Range on cold air advection patterns and associated 500 mb (upper air) height field adjustments, etc. As a whole, the para GFS has been notably better and closer to the ECMWF in most cases (when glancing at the NCEP mag para site).
  9. Thanks guys ^^ We started this hike in dense fog, but we ended it walking above the clouds. Great day to be away from the useless noise of society.
  10. The mountains are my sanctuary; they are my freedom from the noise of this over-civilized world. There is no other place I would rather be.
  11. That is incredible.
  12. I haven't done much of that yet as I don't yet have good backcountry gear. It gets really spendy after you get decent skis, boots, and skins to ascend the mountains. Moreover, it is highly prudent that you take a good backcountry safety course that includes (or even does so separately) avalanche safety. One thing about living in a state like AK (or any mountain state with winter weather as well) is buying all the "essential" gear requires an exorbitant initial cost. Camping gear, hiking gear, backpacking, winter gear, biking gear, clothing and apparel, climbing gear (rock and/or ice), etc. is very very expensive if you don't own the basics already. Coming up here from the flat lands of Nebraska and North Dakota (with only a short stint in Salt Lake in between), I did not own much of it. I think I will have sufficient funds (and will have gathered enough of the other essentials) to delve into backcountry skiing next winter.
  13. This could end up being quite the "spread the wealth" type storm. I don't buy the NAM depiction of all the banded precip falling over the same location. The ECMWF seems more reasonable with upper level frontogenesis dominating ahead of the leading wave followed by stronger low level forcing as the shortwave digs in...which would shift where the heavier precip would fall.
  14. Looking at a potential 2+ bergeron beast. Best I have seen since I have been here is a 936 monster that formed mid winter 2 years ago off the Kuroshio Current and weakened as it tracked into the W Bering.
  15. From the album Alaska