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About baroclinic_instability

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  1. It has been years (4-5), happy to still see all the old usernames on here, I recognize almost all of them still. Still in the AK, still loving it. Now in Fairbanks. Thought I would toss in a few pics. Cheers everyone, I hope you are all well. I don't have anything else to add.
  2. Yes. It seems that many in this day and age of instant satisfaction find it difficult to accept what they have/get and to be happy with it. Let the atmosphere tell the story. Of course, for those who are actually forecasting, they do NEED to pay attention to the small details, but here, this is going to be a pretty incredible storm regardless for the remainder who are simply watching and savoring (or...worrying).
  3. It is model sensitivity to deep convection. All the models are going to struggle here, and even the best will have potential large run-to-run issues with how deep convection alters the entire synoptic picture. It would be interesting to see how the higher res para ECMWF simulates the DMC as it becomes displaced to the east of the upper low center and more oriented with the coupled jet max. Either way, once again, this storm is going to be incredible and rather widespread for significant accums. Enjoy it, Alaska has suffered through 3 awful winters. At least you have something.
  4. IMHO, every intense storm has the potential for dryslotting to be a problem. It really takes a special scenario for the dry slot not to rear its ugly head. Regardless, it is just one model run, and it is still a helluva storm. To be totally fair, I will say I was unable to listen to the show, and those guys are top notch. Plus, I did not see the latest model guidance a few days ago--I am sure things were drastically different. Even looking back 3 ECMWF runs, the northern stream coupled jet was much better aligned a few runs ago, and it isn't a huge surprise (that the model depiction of the jet dynamics/orientation has changed so much) since this much deep convection can really completely throw off the model depictions of the relevant upper level/PV/jet stream fields.
  5. For those who want the is thru 78 hours on wunderground. And there you can actually analyze what differences there are and why instead of just reading QPF totals.
  6. What the GFS/RGEM are simulating is the complete opposite...immense LHR aloft stalling the progression of the 500 hpa S/W trough through PV destruction, which keeps the deform band in place for hours. Tough really is differences in model precip/convective/microphysics/physics schemes.
  7. The ECMWF is a tick north (but barely) on Wunderground at 33 hours. What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation).
  8. Sometimes y'all should just enjoy the mastery of the atmosphere and the incredible show that this is going to be. I see lots of worrying about snow ratios, the latest model QPF, etc. Just accept it for what it is, and you will probably enjoy it a helluva lot more. Be mindful and present of what truly complex processes the atmosphere is about to unleash. Analyze and process, think of what the atmosphere is doing while the event unfolds, and not always what the models are doing. Then when the snow flies, think of all the microphysical interactions that result in what you are experiencing and seeing. Don't worry about the end result, just enjoy the moment. For starters, this: words really don'y need to be added, and we have some incredible weather in AK.
  9. I think someone needs to start a thread. A classic N Plains spring storm. I am currently skeptical of the ECMWF northern track, however. Hard to get that type of snow so far N with a CO low.
  10. I am not going to complain, a true beauty and it is nice to see a legit CO low again. Now the fun begins with the NW winds and true blizzard. How much snow your way?