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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


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Indeed. Looks like pretty good consensus, just based on the mean. But be careful, the Mid-Atlantic weenie-smashers will yell at you for talking about the GEFS.

Well talking about them and locking them in are two different things..lol. It looks like a combo of both nrn and srn stream energy in there. We'll see how guidance looks tonight.

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You're right. Maybe it's not the snow we miss; maybe it's the adrenaline rush. (not kidding)

i think wanting a good snowstorm is our primary driver, but relief is pleasure and that's basically what we get when we look at models hoping a storm is still there (or trending in our favor). it probably helps to learn as much as possible about meteorology. my guess is that most experts probably have less extreme ups and downs leading up to an event than a weenie simply because they know not to model hug.

that said, we are due for a good, "all snow" storm.

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Well if T-1 is your definition of a good storm I think the potential is certainly there for a good storm. Thewestrn ridge is deamplifying, and the PV over S Hudsons Bay doesn't favor it. The good news is the deaplification may push the storm east and keep it from cutting. Bad news is it will be weak and progressive.

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Indeed. Looks like pretty good consensus, just based on the mean. But be careful, the Mid-Atlantic weenie-smashers will yell at you for talking about the GEFS.

Not at that time range, its when they look at it at 48hrs that would be an issue. At 120 hours, they do give some sense of what might happen.

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the lower res guidance seems phase happy of late. just how it looks from here not a forecast.

I think it says something that they look more like the euro, Japanese and ukmet solutions than the operational GFS. Most also still are on the warm side or so it seems. The lack of any surface high to the north is always a reason to worry especially with a marginal airmass.

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I think it says something that they look more like the euro, Japanese and ukmet solutions than the operational GFS. Most also still are on the warm side or so it seems. The lack of any surface high to the north is always a reason to worry especially with a marginal airmass.

If anything, it would be a BL problem. 850s at least on the GEFS are -4ish

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If anything, it would be a BL problem. 850s at least on the GEFS are -4ish

That's this winter's theme. We probably don't have to worry about it as much as the last 2 events. Ragged vorts and no sustained decent precip rates couldn't overcome it for most areas near the cities.

I just can't imagine a coastal system in mid Feb with -4 850's overhead raining much. We'll see I guess but I think the odds of precip overcoming bl problems are probably pretty decent IF we get a storm at all (and it's not some lame hybrid miller-b pos).

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That's this winter's theme. We probably don't have to worry about it as much as the last 2 events. Ragged vorts and no sustained decent precip rates couldn't overcome it for most areas near the cities.

I just can't imagine a coastal system in mid Feb with -4 850's overhead raining much. We'll see I guess but I think the odds of precip overcoming bl problems are probably pretty decent IF we get a storm at all (and it's not some lame hybrid miller-b pos).

There have been such events in the past.

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I'm not psychic, psychotic is more like it, but I like the vibe for this one. I also like the look of the GFS members. Sure they have some wacky solutions from time to time, but they also were playing up the event from two weeks ago when the operational had a storm in Iowa. Like I said earlier, if they can't be useful 5-6 days out, then they aren't useful. With several models showing the chance, I like where we stand. I may wake up to a step back, but we're still in the game on this one.

Oh, and BTW, theres a couple of gfs members I want to spend the rest of my life with. :snowing:

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For what it's worth (and probably not much at that), my "kook" winter storm file indicated a potential DC snowfall in and around the 20th this year. I don't know if Matt and Randy remember me talking about this a while back. This file has had its moments this year and I think would have scored better if it was a more "normal" winter. Anyway, thought I would bring that up again. Also, glad to see this: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png

Oh before people starting thinking I am forecasting an unprecedented blizzard (lol), this file is for "all events" so it counts a 0.1 as an event. For the time being, let's watch the model trends and hope we get something in this ridiculous North American Winter.

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Well, the 0z run (at hour 114) is markedly different from 18 and 12z run. In what looks to be a better way.

It does look better and the Atlantic is great. Unfortunately, the PNA ridge is gone and the next trough is already moving into the Plains. We have to see if we can get this thing to trend toward another cutoff (like every wave has done this year on the cusp of a building western ridge); otherwise, this will be suppressed.

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