wxmeddler Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Too many players on the field.. as for right now, a miss timed mess. May trend north within 48 hrs of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm going to play this threat on the safe side. If it snows then 2-4" seems reasonable. If it doesn't snow then 0-1" seem reasonable with an emphasis on 0. Otherwise my forecast will bust low. I think I have a good chance at verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm going to play this threat on the safe side. If it snows then 2-4" seems reasonable. If it doesn't snow then 0-1" seem reasonable with an emphasis on 0. Otherwise my forecast will bust low. I think I have a good chance at verifying. Agreedyou can't pay me to go 1-3" this year. Well you can because my parents make up my entire forecasting audience, but you get the point. And I hate 1-3" on a normal year anyway, I just can't be assured it won't be 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Y'all are gonna like the new ECMWF (not in completely yet but it still still NW of every other model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Y'all are gonna like the new ECMWF (not in completely yet but it still still NW of every other model). Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Talk dirty to me. MECS on the EURO...990mb off OC MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 While modeling agrees on the western trough moving in, the exact details within this trough are what is separating the two solutions of suppressed / further north. Notice that while the ECMWF has the wave dropping into the western High Plains, it still keeps the trough more formidable over BC / PAC NW, given room for the East Coast Low to come northward. This storm slams VA-MD-DE-S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 While modeling agrees on the western trough moving in, the exact details within this trough are what is separating the two solutions of suppressed / further north. Notice that while the ECMWF has the wave dropping into the western High Plains, it still keeps the trough more formidable over BC / PAC NW, given room for the East Coast Low to come northward. This storm slams VA-MD-DE-S NJ Yeah...the Euro has some pretty significant height falls over the Plains that move southeast to the MS Valley in association with northern stream energy. The GFS and GEFS from tonights 00z suite say that this energy doesn't exist. Interestingly both the GFS and Euro seem in relative "agreement" (for the lead time, at least) on the Pac system and de-amplifying ridge. But the Euro has such northern stream interaction, that the entire set up becomes much more volatile. You could see it coming at 126 hours when it started dropping sub 550dm heights into the MS Valley. As it is, the surface low deepens rapidly off the coast of Ocean City Maryland and then moves east/northeast from there. You'd have to think it's also pretty strong with the southern stream vort too...that's a pretty potent surface low for a generally broad upper air trough on the map below. Boundary layer is a little iffy to start but this is deform/heavy snow as modeled...and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 While modeling agrees on the western trough moving in, the exact details within this trough are what is separating the two solutions of suppressed / further north. Notice that while the ECMWF has the wave dropping into the western High Plains, it still keeps the trough more formidable over BC / PAC NW, given room for the East Coast Low to come northward. This storm slams VA-MD-DE-S NJ Dr. No corrects the PAC and saves the day. What does the temp profile look like with this run from the VA/NC border north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Plymouth State has Euro day 6 low at 982mb 100 miles east of OC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Yeah...the Euro has some pretty significant height falls over the Plains that move southeast to the MS Valley in association with northern stream energy. The GFS and GEFS from tonights 00z suite say that this energy doesn't exist. Interestingly both the GFS and Euro seem in relative "agreement" (for the lead time, at least) on the Pac system and de-amplifying ridge. But the Euro has such northern stream interaction, that the entire set up becomes much more volatile. You could see it coming at 126 hours when it started dropping sub 550dm heights into the MS Valley. As it is, the surface low deepens rapidly off the coast of Ocean City Maryland and then moves east/northeast from there. You'd have to think it's also pretty strong with the southern stream vort too...that's a pretty potent surface low for a generally broad upper air trough on the map below. Boundary layer is a little iffy to start but this is deform/heavy snow as modeled...and a lot of it. Everything on the ECMWF is pretty classic for a major East Coast storm outside of the trough slamming into the West. The semi-phase behind a departing 50-50 low is a thing of beauty. This delicate balance between the new RNA emerging and "-NAO to +NAO shift storm" could mean we are in the right forum for who sees the best potential. Unfortunately, this thing can easily shift back to NC with 1 minor adjustment in the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Dr. No corrects the PAC and saves the day. What does the temp profile look like with this run from the VA/NC border north? The UKMET is just a failure at phasing but does ultimately become a solid RNA pattern by 144h which keeps this thing suppressed. And while I know we like to poke fun at the UKMET, keep in mind it has pretty good scores and usually beats the GFS at day 5-6. The GGEM is like a compromise of the ECMWF / UKIE but that still yields a suppressed track (it semi-phases the s/w but has the West turn into the UKMET type of solution). The only solution that wins for S NJ-MD-DE-VA is if that trough doesn't come down in mad fury like the UK/GGEM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Alot of people will regret not having stayed up for this euro run, looks like a solid hit for the coastal mid-atlantic (and more!). Nothing is set in stone but I can't see how the GFS would be right in this situation considering the lack of major confluence in Canada. The only catch is the kicker shortwave out west but we got the Atlantic on our side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Timing is great -- overnight into Sunday for my area-- looks like according to this run the best snows over by noon Sunday. That's a way to beat the lack of HP. Of course, I'm in the jackpot 5 days out. Never ever a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The euro now looks like the jma run 2 days ago. Let's keep slamming the jma as useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Insomnia finally pays off tonight. Euro is a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Insomnia finally pays off tonight. Euro is a nice hit. Only 144 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs looks worse and worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Wow Gfs dosent even have a storm? The run to run continuity of this model is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 6z GFS really dampens the flow.. and the west coast trough justs kills any chance of amplification out east. New old.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro bias with bringing stuff out from the west is probably why it has the storm.when euro shows storm and Gfs does not...Gfs usually wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Euro bias with bringing stuff out from the west is probably why it has the storm.when euro shows storm and Gfs does not...Gfs usually wins Maybe this winter but that is not always the case......the same bias can be said about the GFS in the fact that it leaves pices of energy behind or squashes them with its south east bias...............still plenty of time and many viable outcomes no need to start pointing out model bias's........its all abou the ride and the learning experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 well, still BL problems on the Euro with surface temps >32 Wunderground maps show maybe 3" at BWI with central VA and Lower Eastern shore of MD doing better (I thought from the 5H and RH maps DCA/BWI would be more) too bad it's 5+ days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 We virtually have no wiggle room on this...if the PAC changes slightly, we're toast. Maybe the ensembles will give us some clues since we are outside 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I am not as knowledgable at this as some other folks are but I am pretty certain that if we had a storm like the one depicted last night on the Models, the dynamic cooling would be such that the snow aloft break down the boundary layer relatively quickly. Probably within the first few hours of the event. Just for S's ang G's does any one have the total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 LWX. Things that make you go "hmmmm...." .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SECONDARY CUTOFF LOW OVER FAR NWRN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO TAKE A GULF OF MEXICO TRACK...REACHING THE SERN CONUS BY LATE SATURDAY. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS SERN CANADA. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A NOR`EASTER...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE FOR INTENSITY AND LOCATION. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A NICE LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH. RAISED SOME POPS FOR SNOW ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES ALL BUT SRN MD WHERE 30 POPS WERE PLACED AS A FIRST GUESS. LATER SHIFT WILL LOOK FOR ANY CONSISTENCY/CLUES. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The GFS started to lose the northern stream shortwave last night that phases with the closed low in TX on Sat/Sun...now placing emphasis on the wave crashing into the west coast... therefore no storm. You want to talk about diversity in solutions: the Nogaps takes it up into the western lakes! So much for supression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I am not as knowledgable at this as some other folks are but I am pretty certain that if we had a storm like the one depicted last night on the Models, the dynamic cooling would be such that the snow aloft break down the boundary layer relatively quickly. Probably within the first few hours of the event. Just for S's ang G's does any one have the total QPF? From am19psu: >1 across E VA and the Delmarva .5-1 for a good portion of the mid-Atlantic snowfall totals: 4-8 inches across central VA, southern MD and the Delmarva 2-4 inches for DC/BWI/PHL/NYC, as well as south across NC ratios are terrible because of the warm boundary layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 From am19psu: >1 across E VA and the Delmarva .5-1 for a good portion of the mid-Atlantic snowfall totals: 4-8 inches across central VA, southern MD and the Delmarva 2-4 inches for DC/BWI/PHL/NYC, as well as south across NC ratios are terrible because of the warm boundary layer Sweet. Looks like euro has my exact call There is still so much time for things to change. I think any guess and any model output at this range is very low confidence especially as to any specifics but even on the general track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 it's also been wrong in this range a number of times.. not that it's right but more the idea. i know what you mean about the models but you could not offer a 2-4" forecast at 5-6 days out without them. Yep. But my "forecast" is just a guess/hunch. If the euro has the "most correct" general idea at this range 40% of the time it is likely leading all other models but is still wrong most of the time. My example isnt very good but I think that is general idea of how you have to look at models. When they are the "best" they are still wrong a lot and especially with details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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