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About am19psu

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    Bendy Tree Season
  • Birthday 05/26/1981

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    W. Philly Burbs

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  1. Medium/Long Range thread

    You're not being a pain. This is exactly the purpose for which this thread is intended.
  2. Medium/Long Range thread

    Battle zone would appear to be around here, because we should see an enhanced SE ridge.
  3. Medium/Long Range thread

    Yeah, HM and I were talking about that, too, offline. Stupid lambda.
  4. Medium/Long Range thread

    Also, you have to include my persistent early bias, so if I think late Nov-early Dec, you're mid-Dec call might be spot on
  5. Medium/Long Range thread

    Like what the Euro ENS means show today?
  6. Medium/Long Range thread

    True, but there is still a KW collocated with the MJO. I'd hazard a guess that the VP/OLR response is still pretty strong over the Maritime Continent mid-month and probably stronger than currently forecast. I agree with you that late Nov-early Dec is setting up for some potential here, but I think we'll have to go through a torch first.
  7. Medium/Long Range thread

    I'm betting on the SE ridge at this time... but I'm happy to listen to alternatives. Shouldn't the strengthening PV keep the N PAC high from getting too far north?
  8. Winter 2013-2014

    No. The general flavor of the early winter period is likely to be +AO/warm. HM is trying to identify periods in which the general pattern may break down.
  9. Winter 2013-2014

    No. Read the thread. Everything being discussed are possible disruptions to the overall +AO/warm signal.
  10. Medium/Long Range thread

    Then I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. As far as the leading indicators go, this season should be more +AO than -AO.
  11. Medium/Long Range thread

    I can't read that. Do you have a link to the actual regression work? Without knowing this guy's methods, I can't really comment.
  12. Winter 2013-2014

    Latent heat release forces a Rossby wave train that reinforces the Aleutian Low, which causes the wave-1 response in the stratosphere, which tilts with height, causing the warming in the middle/upper stratosphere over Siberia.
  13. Winter 2013-2014

    That's exactly what it is