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About am19psu

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    Bendy Tree Season
  • Birthday 05/26/1981

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    W. Philly Burbs
  1. You're not being a pain. This is exactly the purpose for which this thread is intended.
  2. Battle zone would appear to be around here, because we should see an enhanced SE ridge.
  3. Yeah, HM and I were talking about that, too, offline. Stupid lambda.
  4. Also, you have to include my persistent early bias, so if I think late Nov-early Dec, you're mid-Dec call might be spot on
  5. Like what the Euro ENS means show today?
  6. True, but there is still a KW collocated with the MJO. I'd hazard a guess that the VP/OLR response is still pretty strong over the Maritime Continent mid-month and probably stronger than currently forecast. I agree with you that late Nov-early Dec is setting up for some potential here, but I think we'll have to go through a torch first.
  7. I'm betting on the SE ridge at this time... but I'm happy to listen to alternatives. Shouldn't the strengthening PV keep the N PAC high from getting too far north?
  8. No. The general flavor of the early winter period is likely to be +AO/warm. HM is trying to identify periods in which the general pattern may break down.
  9. No. Read the thread. Everything being discussed are possible disruptions to the overall +AO/warm signal.
  10. Then I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. As far as the leading indicators go, this season should be more +AO than -AO.
  11. I can't read that. Do you have a link to the actual regression work? Without knowing this guy's methods, I can't really comment.
  12. Latent heat release forces a Rossby wave train that reinforces the Aleutian Low, which causes the wave-1 response in the stratosphere, which tilts with height, causing the warming in the middle/upper stratosphere over Siberia.
  13. That's exactly what it is