cpasi Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 When do Ensemles come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ensembles are extremely flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The great thing about it, we won't be out of the game until Friday at the earliest. Anyone wanting the GFS ens to look good (me) is going to be disappointed. Come on Euro, keep us hooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I moved the Phil/dtk stuff over the Met 101, if you want to find it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Do you have additional GGEM image panels? Not that it matters but it would be interesting to see the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Do you have additional GGEM image panels? Not that it matters but it would be interesting to see the progression. It jumps to 144 Website is http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Can anyone hook a brotha up with surface temps and total QPF for GGEM? Say DCA/RIC/ORF/RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ill take that. As long as one or two models shows something...there is a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 102 has 1008 low crossing S LA. N stream maybe not quite as good so far as 0z but pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 108 has big broad low over n gom or just onshore. last run had it over s alabama. not as amped still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 108 has big broad low over n gom or just onshore. last run had it over s alabama. not as amped still. CoastalWx said that is flatter than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 114 has broad stretched low from panhandle off east coast. last run had 1000 mb low over central ga. this run can't be as good as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Phase but it won't come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ian, will this run be as good as 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 120 has two surface centers.. one over s ga and the other off nc coast.. precip barely up to s va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 going ots at 126.. no precip north of very far se va it seems unless a little after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 going ots at 126.. no precip north of very far se va it seems unless a little after that Sounds like fairly good agreement with the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 storm much more stretched out.. still meandering ots with big elongated low east of nc at 132.. goes from 1"+ qpf to central outer banks off to nothing not too far north of va beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 No one knows whats happening with this one, useless to look at this range this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 this thing remains eerily similar to the storm or 2 this winter when GFS and Euro saw one in the LR and GFS lost in the MR first, with the Euro following suit a run or 2 later time to tell this winter to go to he!! and pray for this http://www.cpc.ncep....3/nino34Mon.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It is pointless to become invested at this point. We really could go anywhere from pc to a snowstorm. Why are the models having so much trouble. Everything too fast? Too many pieces of energy? What's going on this year? 1. Nina 2. Fast flow 3. No blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Most around here should know the drill. We won't have a good idea about this till probably 0z Friday. Safe bet is for us to either get fringed or a phase that's too late. Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think the threat is solid for Soutthern half of VA and part of Northern NC.. but i suspect some shift north at some point.. can DC, No VA, and MD get in on it? Nobody knows! EDIT: This post is worthless - but I felt like saying something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow the euro has done this a few times this yr. who cares since it's day 5 but it's hard to say it doesnt matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the euro has done this a few times this yr. who cares since it's day 5 but it's hard to say it doesnt matter at all. usually its not good to have no storm as each day gets closer to the storm. Very discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 usually its not good to have no storm as each day gets closer to the storm. Very discouraging. we generally suck at timing. i could see it shift north without a phase but the way this winter has gone there's no reason to believe it can't just go east and ots. gulf lows are only exciting if they bring us moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Friday is too late. We will know by tomorrow at 00z. Euro folds like a house of cards again to GFS when GFS shows no snow and euro shows snow This sequence is pretty common. gfs latches into the "right" idea 1st but only after the euro has shown a version of that idea for several runs. Now what happens is we see which of the 2 big models brings this north enough to fringe us with decent enough QPF. It isn't like the track is settled at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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