stormtracker Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ok, I think it's time for a separate thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 150/24 good luck everyone.. we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nah, a coastal rainstorm is totally threadworthy.....jk Honestly, imo- this is probably the best threat of the year. split flow.....50/50......nao isn't raging +........climo prime time.......and most importantly, europe is forecast to be warm and dry this week....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The euro surface temps are dreadful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I'm gonna go with Option B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nah, a coastal rainstorm is totally threadworthy.....jk Honestly, imo- this is probably the best threat of the year. split flow.....50/50......nao isn't raging +........climo prime time.......and most importantly, europe is forecast to be warm and dry this week....... Here's a 500 H composite of 4 inch or greater La Nina snowstorms They are not as good a match to the GEFS ense mean as a general dc snowstorm composite for all years. Not sure that means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Here's a 500 H composite of 4 inch or greater La Nina snowstorms They are not as good a match to the GEFS ense mean as a general dc snowstorm composite for all years. Not sure that means much. Hmm... Not a good match and it's a good point. 2" is a winner this year though. I was thinking about the euro temps earlier and realized it may be best for the system to stay weaker and slide off the coast. I would think the far n&w precip shield has the best chance for snow. In this case, too much of a good thing might end up making us wet instead of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The euro surface temps are dreadful If we will likely have BL issues then not sure why anyone would honk too loudly for areas to our south outside the mountains. Too early I suppose to talk surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 BL is so warm on the Euro that the Wunderground maps have no snow for I95 and not more than a couple inches (at best) in central and eastern VA mts are a different story, of course has Dave corrected his FB page yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hmm... Not a good match and it's a good point. 2" is a winner this year though. I was thinking about the euro temps earlier and realized it may be best for the system to stay weaker and slide off the coast. I would think the far n&w precip shield has the best chance for snow. In this case, too much of a good thing might end up making us wet instead of white. I think it too early to know for sure but the boundary layer is a concern but that is a nice track. A better track could either warm us or cool us depending on the dynamics and lifting. On the composite I even took out 1/6/96 thinking its signal might be so strong as to impact the composite but it ended up looking pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I wish there was a model that took the NAM and extrapolated it out several days. Wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 it's President's Day, and we have had PD storms in 03, 06, 09, so we're due in this +3. How about +33? The third largest snowstorm in DC history (and the largest since the January 1922 Knickerbocker storm) occurred on President's Day weekend, Sunday, February 18th to Monday, February 19th, 1979. The storm totaled 18.7 inches at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 JMA still has a big storm but it looks just like the euro now...does not take it up the coast as yesterdays run did. So at 144 hours, the bullseye is Richmond. Good luck with that RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 euro ens mean not as robust as usual but is not super far off the op. the trough is significantly less amplified tho the storm track looks somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 JMA still has a big storm but it looks just like the euro now...does not take it up the coast as yesterdays run did. So at 144 hours, the bullseye is Richmond. Good luck with that RIC Perhaps we can hope it phases early and expands precip to the NW. But an RIC bullseye might bode well for at least the southern half of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Perhaps we can hope it phases early and expands precip to the NW. But an RIC bullseye might bode well for at least the southern half of our region. An RIC bulls eye 100+ hours out typically ends up being IAD bullseye at hour zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 JMA still has a big storm but it looks just like the euro now...does not take it up the coast as yesterdays run did. So at 144 hours, the bullseye is Richmond. Good luck with that RIC Not the favored position 6 days out. Oh well, maybe we will have a decent storm for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 JMA still has a big storm but it looks just like the euro now...does not take it up the coast as yesterdays run did. So at 144 hours, the bullseye is Richmond. Good luck with that RIC fwiw, looking at the 7H RH, I would say it stays to our south, not that it is bad at this point http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_700_GPHTMPRH_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dumb question: if, as everyone seems to be saying, the "models always trend north" with these types of system as they approach in time, why doesn't someone just correct the models' early southern bias? Or is this whole 'north trend' thing just wishful thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 its good that most models at least show something trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I hope we've got everyone convinced that it is good for the models to look bad for us at this range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think it too early to know for sure but the boundary layer is a concern but that is a nice track. A better track could either warm us or cool us depending on the dynamics and lifting. On the composite I even took out 1/6/96 thinking its signal might be so strong as to impact the composite but it ended up looking pretty much the same. I'm just being a paranoid weenie. BL has been a thorn the last couple of weeks. Maybe not as bad 20+ miles to the N&W of the cities but folks in close and to the E have been suffering pretty bad. Conventional wisdom would definitely argue for more snow than rain even if it tracks further up the coast. Without a dying primary in the oh valley, it seems odd that we are talking about warm surface and rain given the track and setup but it's a recurring theme this year. I'm looking forward to your analysis this week and I hope the threat holds serve so we can at least enjoy the chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dumb question: if, as everyone seems to be saying, the "models always trend north" with these types of system as they approach in time, why doesn't someone just correct the models' early southern bias? Or is this whole 'north trend' thing just wishful thinking? per some mets, the models often overdo the Canadian maritimes Low or -NAO at this range once they pickup on them better making them weaker, it trends north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dumb question: if, as everyone seems to be saying, the "models always trend north" with these types of system as they approach in time, why doesn't someone just correct the models' early southern bias? Or is this whole 'north trend' thing just wishful thinking? they don't always trend north.. this year it's probably just as likely it goes back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There's always hope that it'll do a last minute jog north like 1/30/10. Although it would seem fitting that the grand finale for this crappy winter would be getting screwed by watching areas south of us cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There's always hope that it'll do a last minute jog north like 1/30/10. Although it would seem fitting that the grand finale for this crappy winter would be getting screwed by watching areas south of us cash in. A Jan 3-4 2002 repeat would literally suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A Jan 3-4 2002 repeat would literally suck If the phase timing is off that certainly is possible... I hated that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I hope we've got everyone convinced that it is good for the models to look bad for us at this range.... I do not get this logic - I would prefer they look good and go to great! Stay consistent, lock in on something for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 A Jan 3-4 2002 repeat would literally suck A March 1, 2009 would be worse. If I'm gonna miss snow, I want to miss it by 300 miles, not 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There's always hope that it'll do a last minute jog north like 1/30/10. Although it would seem fitting that the grand finale for this crappy winter would be getting screwed by watching areas south of us cash in. it's 6 days away. it might not even be there at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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