CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Indeed. Looks like pretty good consensus, just based on the mean. But be careful, the Mid-Atlantic weenie-smashers will yell at you for talking about the GEFS. Well talking about them and locking them in are two different things..lol. It looks like a combo of both nrn and srn stream energy in there. We'll see how guidance looks tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Fairly sizable spread for the 132hr on the 18z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Funny how the only GEFS member with no major storm is the op. granted a few of the other members we dont want (to warm), but have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You're right. Maybe it's not the snow we miss; maybe it's the adrenaline rush. (not kidding) i think wanting a good snowstorm is our primary driver, but relief is pleasure and that's basically what we get when we look at models hoping a storm is still there (or trending in our favor). it probably helps to learn as much as possible about meteorology. my guess is that most experts probably have less extreme ups and downs leading up to an event than a weenie simply because they know not to model hug. that said, we are due for a good, "all snow" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 the lower res guidance seems phase happy of late. just how it looks from here not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The individual perturbations look interesting, too. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Scroll to 132 and on. Lots of interesting solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Well if T-1 is your definition of a good storm I think the potential is certainly there for a good storm. Thewestrn ridge is deamplifying, and the PV over S Hudsons Bay doesn't favor it. The good news is the deaplification may push the storm east and keep it from cutting. Bad news is it will be weak and progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The individual perturbations look interesting, too. http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html Scroll to 132 and on. Lots of interesting solutions. Indeed. Warm air nose tries to creep in on at least a few. Even up to DC. I wouldn't sweat it though, but it is something to keep an eye out for at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Indeed. Looks like pretty good consensus, just based on the mean. But be careful, the Mid-Atlantic weenie-smashers will yell at you for talking about the GEFS. Not at that time range, its when they look at it at 48hrs that would be an issue. At 120 hours, they do give some sense of what might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 the lower res guidance seems phase happy of late. just how it looks from here not a forecast. I think it says something that they look more like the euro, Japanese and ukmet solutions than the operational GFS. Most also still are on the warm side or so it seems. The lack of any surface high to the north is always a reason to worry especially with a marginal airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I think it says something that they look more like the euro, Japanese and ukmet solutions than the operational GFS. Most also still are on the warm side or so it seems. The lack of any surface high to the north is always a reason to worry especially with a marginal airmass. If anything, it would be a BL problem. 850s at least on the GEFS are -4ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 If anything, it would be a BL problem. 850s at least on the GEFS are -4ish That's this winter's theme. We probably don't have to worry about it as much as the last 2 events. Ragged vorts and no sustained decent precip rates couldn't overcome it for most areas near the cities. I just can't imagine a coastal system in mid Feb with -4 850's overhead raining much. We'll see I guess but I think the odds of precip overcoming bl problems are probably pretty decent IF we get a storm at all (and it's not some lame hybrid miller-b pos). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z Dgex is close to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 18z Dgex is close to something The image before demolishes my CWA-- 10+ at my hood. Can I root for the DGEX and have self respect? I'd be thrilled with a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 The image before demolishes my CWA-- 10+ at my hood. Can I root for the DGEX and have self respect? I'd be thrilled with a moderate event. don't worry Huff...we all waived that in the Terms and Conditions of registration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 That's this winter's theme. We probably don't have to worry about it as much as the last 2 events. Ragged vorts and no sustained decent precip rates couldn't overcome it for most areas near the cities. I just can't imagine a coastal system in mid Feb with -4 850's overhead raining much. We'll see I guess but I think the odds of precip overcoming bl problems are probably pretty decent IF we get a storm at all (and it's not some lame hybrid miller-b pos). There have been such events in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well compared to the 90 hour GFS, the 84 hr NAM......I'm trying to extrapolate the NAM, aren't I? Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 There have been such events in the past. I bet you can think of an event in February where it got so warm steam came off the streets in the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well compared to the 90 hour GFS, the 84 hr NAM......I'm trying to extrapolate the NAM, aren't I? Nevermind. They already took care of that for you, friend. Let the DGEX take you to the promised land, baby. Just relax and sit back while it works its magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I'm not psychic, psychotic is more like it, but I like the vibe for this one. I also like the look of the GFS members. Sure they have some wacky solutions from time to time, but they also were playing up the event from two weeks ago when the operational had a storm in Iowa. Like I said earlier, if they can't be useful 5-6 days out, then they aren't useful. With several models showing the chance, I like where we stand. I may wake up to a step back, but we're still in the game on this one. Oh, and BTW, theres a couple of gfs members I want to spend the rest of my life with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 For what it's worth (and probably not much at that), my "kook" winter storm file indicated a potential DC snowfall in and around the 20th this year. I don't know if Matt and Randy remember me talking about this a while back. This file has had its moments this year and I think would have scored better if it was a more "normal" winter. Anyway, thought I would bring that up again. Also, glad to see this: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/images/nao.png Oh before people starting thinking I am forecasting an unprecedented blizzard (lol), this file is for "all events" so it counts a 0.1 as an event. For the time being, let's watch the model trends and hope we get something in this ridiculous North American Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 You know this is going to be a good threat to follow this week when the (2/14 0Z) GFS loses the northern stream vort and is still going to show a decent storm on this run. Notice the HP to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, the 0z run (at hour 114) is markedly different from 18 and 12z run. In what looks to be a better way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 i think we want the low to come inland by the western fl panhandle or so.. we've had trouble pulling lows back west when they start climbing too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, the 0z run (at hour 114) is markedly different from 18 and 12z run. In what looks to be a better way. It does look better and the Atlantic is great. Unfortunately, the PNA ridge is gone and the next trough is already moving into the Plains. We have to see if we can get this thing to trend toward another cutoff (like every wave has done this year on the cusp of a building western ridge); otherwise, this will be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well, the 0z run (at hour 114) is markedly different from 18 and 12z run. In what looks to be a better way. We want gradual improvement. Not ready to be in bullseye tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 too many shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Well it seems like it going to slide off to far South and East for the majority of this area. But it not a bad look.... if you want a storm that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Gfs is a Terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 It's gone at 150. Different look, though.. no Miller B taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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