mattb65 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Ya gotta love the 06z GFS and the tease it is for the whole eastern seaboard. Nice hard right turn there. If that Katia can head W another 150-200m W before taking that hard right, eastern areas could be threatened. Don't worry, am19psu is certain that won't happen and he gets paid the big bucks to be certain so it really isn't even worth speculating about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Don't worry, am19psu is certain that won't happen and he gets paid the big bucks to be certain so it really isn't even worth speculating about. The odds at this point are in favor of a re-curve, but this thing will tease us for the next week with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Don't worry, am19psu is certain that won't happen and he gets paid the big bucks to be certain so it really isn't even worth speculating about. Well he's right...it isn't likely and will probably tease, but it's not far off for something more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well he's right...it isn't likely and will probably tease, but it's not far off for something more interesting. Yeah, Brian pointed that out as well. Not much to do at this point but monitor the overall pattern and see where we are at come Mon/Tues imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the anchor on the newscast after the Pats game said "It looks like it's coming right for us" after seeing the track..dumbass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the anchor on the newscast after the Pats game said "It looks like it's coming right for us" after seeing the track..dumbass Gotta love when journalists act like meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the anchor on the newscast after the Pats game said "It looks like it's coming right for us" after seeing the track..dumbass At just about noon everyday it looks like the sun is going to fall on our heads! It's right above us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 JB's getting all excited.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts... 9/11/02...Never Forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well he's right...it isn't likely and will probably tease, but it's not far off for something more interesting. Full moon, even an offshore Cane which sends 12 foot swells up is not good news for LISound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2 Intensity forecasts I take with more of a grain of salt than position. This has gone from a 100% fish to its worth a watch in a day, inteesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 DB... Laptop raising Several additional thoughts: First, the satellite presenation has continued to improve. I believe Katia has probably reached hurricane strength. Second, in terms of the FSU-generated analogs (9/2 12z), I believe a number of them are not very good. The worst ones, IMO, are Fox (1950), Holly (1969), Frances (1976), and Irene (1981). The synoptic pattern does not support such early recurvature this time around. FWIW, my ten analogs at this point would be: H4 (1893), H1 (1927), Gladys (1975), Gloria (1985), Luis (1995), Edouard (1996), Bonnie (1998), Floyd (1999), Bill (2009), and Earl (2010). Those with perhaps the closest 500 mb pattern to what is expected on the 9/2 0z GFS ensembles between 168h and 192h would be, in chronological order, Gladys (1975), Luis (1995), and Floyd (1999). The mean and median positions for the farthest west those 10 storms came were 73.8W and 73.6W respectively. 80% of the storms reached 70.0W, 70% reached 72.5W, and 40% reached 75.0W. The 9/2 0z Euro comes to around 73.0W, perhaps a little farther when one considers a curved not linear track. U.S. landfall occurred in 40% of the cases. Once one takes the more similar synoptic patterns (relative to that on the GFS ensembles) into consideration, 33% made U.S. landfall. 70% of the above-mentioned storms reached Category 4. All grew into major hurricanes. Right now, if I had to venture a guess concerning Katia's track, that guess would be: 17.5N 52.8W 20.0N 56.8W 25.0N 63.9W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.6W 40.0N 63.5W Farthest west: probably somewhere between 72.0W and 74.0W. Hence, there is room for a track farther west than what I've outlined. Finally, I still believe odds favor recurvature. But prospects for a landfall are not insignificant and only a modest change in the evolution of the 500 mb pattern and Katia's response to it could lead to such an outcome. A Floyd-like track would probably be a worst-case scenario. Hurricane #1 (1927) and Gladys (1975) might offer the best analogs. Of course, things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2 Would be interesting if there is a trend to overforecast western Atlantic TC strength this season. We never really had a solid post-mortem on why Irene struggled: If it was the southeast US drought setting up antecedent dry air that got mixed in, this may impact Katia in the same way. Or it may not if a slow-moving Lee can inject more tropical air into the southeast. If it was multiple ERCs, shear or something else unique to Irene synoptics, NHC should be more likely to hit it right with a Cat 4 peak Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 DB... Laptop raising You better not go to the beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 GFS looks pretty damn north/west at 108 Looks a lot faster than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Differences from 06z to 12z on GFS are comical. Look at 144 vs 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Katia has a chance of being a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Katia has a chance of being a real problem. GFS actually looks really good right now... Huge amplified trough with that closed low... Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Katia has a chance of being a real problem. Elaborate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The GFS almost stalls Katia between NC and bermuda.. Why isn't moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Elaborate I'm not sure if you had power or not when Will was talking about a 38 situation being the only real hope with Katia. If I recall that was a system with an upper low to the west that drew a storm into LI that was actually starting further east than most. That's kind of the rough scenario we are seeing playing out. To me the GFS looks like it's not quite going to do it, the system coming out of Hudsons Bay should be able to boot it east but damn it's getting close. BTW, agree with you on intensity forecasts....not sure this gets as strong as they think. If we have another one coming 20-30% weaker than forecast in 2-3 days will be interesting to figure out why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It's moving towards land still at least at 5h at this point. Again race is on, but this is way too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The GFS has a deep ULL over the south all the while ridging to the northeast of Katia tries to build in. It goes just se of the BM, but boy that is closer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z GFS fringes the cape, SE mass and DE maine with Katia this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The GFS has a deep ULL over the south all the while ridging to the northeast of Katia tries to build in. It goes just se of the BM, but boy that is closer for sure. Yea, getting damn interesting especially for the NC crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the gfs is almost a very bad situation up here but it will change a bunch more time between now and then all we can do is wait and see what the system in the gulf does and the system in western pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The GFS has a deep ULL over the south all the while ridging to the northeast of Katia tries to build in. It goes just se of the BM, but boy that is closer for sure. Look at the difference in placement of low between 6z and 12z at 186h and 180h. lol We pretty much have to thread the needle like a 1938 to get impact right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not sure if you had power or not when Will was talking about a 38 situation being the only real hope with Katia. If I recall that was a system with an upper low to the west that drew a storm into LI that was actually starting further east than most. That's kind of the rough scenario we are seeing playing out. To me the GFS looks like it's not quite going to do it, the system coming out of Hudsons Bay should be able to boot it east but damn it's getting close. BTW, agree with you on intensity forecasts....not sure this gets as strong as they think. If we have another one coming 20-30% weaker than forecast in 2-3 days will be interesting to figure out why. It's different than the '38 storm since it comes in more from the east and north, but you really need that ULL combined with building ridging to the northeast. We also have the westerlies that try to descend in from the northwest that helps kick it out, but it could be a little different if the ridging to the northeast builds more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 its really pissing me off that every post I make in that main thread gets deleted, so I guess I'll post in here and lurk in there. anyway, at 180 it looks like those westerlies are quite high up north, but it still gets yanked OTS pretty sharply after that...what's giving it that push? edit: just saw the post above which basically answered what I just asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.