snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 yeah i certainly wouldn't be calling for an east coast LF right now but would bet we'll see some crazy model runs. the timing and strength of each of these features is going to be a mess. try looping through some of the individual gfs ensemble members. there's plenty of entertainment there, if the op didn't provide enough on its own. Well as we saw with Irene from hitting the gulf to hitting NE, the upper level features are def not set in stone yet.. it could get interesting at the path will change.. whether its further out to sea or slamming into the EC.. here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well as we saw with Irene from hitting the gulf to hitting NE, the upper level features are def not set in stone yet.. it could get interesting at the path will change.. whether its further out to sea or slamming into the EC.. here we go again that's one thing they showed though - actual landfall. katia probably is just going to be a lot of model tease. that's my hunch right now. won't stop me from watching because these things are challenging and fun. but in recent memory i'd favor something like Bill in 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 that's one thing they showed though - actual landfall. katia probably is just going to be a lot of model tease. that's my hunch right now. won't stop me from watching because these things are challenging and fun. but in recent memory i'd favor something like Bill in 09. Yea if there's a chance then ill be watching, although not as intensely as Irene..yet... You never know with any of these recurving storms if one will go against the grain/consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Maybe if we get some sort of phasing well offshore..with a strong high to the NW we can get some sort of damaging wind storm out of the whole deal. I remember something like that happening about 8-10 yrs ago one September. A sunny day with a cane passing well OTS wih strong NW winds gusting over 60 9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I agree with Phil. We'll probably have some pure porn weenie solutions in the next few days. The key to watch is whatever develops in the Gulf, and the potential deep ULL that tries to send it north or at the very least, cause a front to stall nearby SNE. I think it may be a fish storm too, but I don't think that is clear cut right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts... I vaguely remember that day, probably one of the windier fall days we have had recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 9/11/02...remember it well--underforecast too--easily 60+ gusts... Yeah i just recall the date..but i knew it was about 10 yrs ago. i remember it just ripped all day. I was at my old house in town and we lost at least a tree that day. I think we'll at least see something like that again here over the next 10 days..maybe worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 What caused the may 2006 floods in NH? Was that a stalled front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 12Z NOGAPS brings Katia about 300-400 miles east of Miami next Wednesday evening, which means its forward speed has to slow down substantially. It looks ready to start recurving, but it is already at 70W and still moving WNW, so it will take a sharp turn for it to avoid any effects on the EC. But it's the NOGAPS, so take it fwiw. Also, it shows any GOM action just milling around and going nowhere. Incidentally, the 00Z NOGAPS had Katia well north and already recurving NNW before reaching 70W. This may yet get interesting. https://www.fnmoc.na...au=000&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I agree with Phil. We'll probably have some pure porn weenie solutions in the next few days. The key to watch is whatever develops in the Gulf, and the potential deep ULL that tries to send it north or at the very least, cause a front to stall nearby SNE. I think it may be a fish storm too, but I don't think that is clear cut right now. yeah agree there. that's the big thing to watch outside of any direct tropical issue...what, if any, hydro issues we have down the road in the interior. that sun/mon fropa - or any subsequent i guess - could be a concern if it doesn't blast through here. hopefully it just keeps on moving and doesn't get hung up. concern would be it passes the region then stalls SE of SNE then starts to creep back with some kind of tropical connection to it, be it from the GOM or SW Atlantic. too early to do much more than speculate but a legit concern, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 yeah agree there. that's the big thing to watch outside of any direct tropical issue...what, if any, hydro issues we have down the road in the interior. that sun/mon fropa - or any subsequent i guess - could be a concern if it doesn't blast through here. hopefully it just keeps on moving and doesn't get hung up. concern would be it passes the region then stalls SE of SNE then starts to creep back with some kind of tropical connection to it, be it from the GOM or SW Atlantic. too early to do much more than speculate but a legit concern, imo. GFS continues with the heavy precip as the gulfow interacts with katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 the first trough on the 12z euro basically is a swing and miss on katia, she heads due west along 25N from 60W to 70W thru fh 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 the first trough on the 12z euro basically is a swing and miss on katia, she heads due west along 25N from 60W to 70W thru fh 198 Footsteps getting louder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Footsteps getting louder? It hurricanes where it wants to hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 removing nails from the coffin: 12Z Euro @ 168hrs significantly more south and on a westerly track (maybe 270-280) compared to 0Z and yesterday's 12Z, essentially slides below the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Footsteps getting louder? well it then takes a hard right and starts climbing due north. so no, not on this run. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 well it then takes a hard right and starts climbing due north. so no, not on this run. LOL. Its a good start.. 25N and 70W is pretty damn SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is pretty obviously a fish storm looking at the synoptic pattern as modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The seasonal trend is also for canes to hit NE stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The seasonal trend is also for canes to hit NE what are you talking about? we had one tropical storm hit NE. That would honestly be like saying the seasonal trend is for KU after KU after getting one 10" snowstorm in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Didn't we say that about Irene too? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 So what can we conclude from the euro? Good trend but doesn't matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 So what can we conclude from the euro? Good trend but doesn't matter? We can conclude that there's a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic, and since it's still a week and a half away from reaching the western Atlantic, we don't know where it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 We can conclude that there's a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic, and since it's still a week and a half away from reaching the western Atlantic, we don't know where it's going. Bingo, Seeing its over 2600 miles from Boston, Odds are not favorable for another New England hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 does the bar seem to have lowered for what's considered a weenie? seems any mention of unlikely potential or non-conservative draws instant attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INTHECLUTCH24 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 From the NWS: MODEL SOLNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RIDGING BREAKING DOWN ALOFT AND LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. SAT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH DIGS. THIS IS CAUSING MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN SOLNS NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL AFFECT THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS INTO MON NIGHT MAY BE TOO LONG...BUT TRYING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES IN FROPA TIMING. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I want the remnants of Lee. Heavy Damage to rivers. I'm calling a Blizzard24 post tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is pretty obviously a fish storm looking at the synoptic pattern as modeled right now. Yup...as soon as this one started moving wnw near the CV islands, I had all but written it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I want the remnants of Lee. Heavy Damage to rivers. I'm calling a Blizzard24 post tomorrow... Dude - you ARE Blizz24, he's just better cause he only pops up once in a while. Advice from a longtime lurker....lurk more post less !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I want the remnants of Lee. Heavy Damage to rivers. The pictures in Vermont aren't enough for you? Give it a rest, dude....when it happens to you then you won't wish for it so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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