Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Looks like it'll become amajor cane over the next few days. Some modelling has it re-curving before reaching the EC. Those same models also recurved Irene. Chances are better that this one does recurve, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Looks like it'll become amajor cane over the next few days. Some modelling has it re-curving before reaching the EC. Those same models also recurved Irene. Chances are better that this one does recurve, but we'll see. Check the main thread for TS Katia...mets wet-blanketing possibility of ANY landfall. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 easy on the 2 for 2 talk, let me get a day with TV and hot water then it can ruin my week again. just as long as it doesn't interfere with the pats opener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Looks like it'll become amajor cane over the next few days. Some modelling has it re-curving before reaching the EC. Those same models also recurved Irene. Chances are better that this one does recurve, but we'll see. Agree....fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Looks like it'll become amajor cane over the next few days. Some modelling has it re-curving before reaching the EC. Those same models also recurved Irene. Chances are better that this one does recurve, but we'll see. The bolded is not true at all, but everything else stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 The bolded is not true at all, but everything else stands. I thought the GFS way out had taken it OTS before locking on an east coast hit.. Euro had it into the Gulf for a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I thought the GFS way out had taken it OTS before locking on an east coast hit.. Euro had it into the Gulf for a few runs 30 runs in a row showing landfall, hoss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I thought the GFS way out had taken it OTS before locking on an east coast hit.. Euro had it into the Gulf for a few runs GFS was always adamant about a landfall, but like the euro had some Gulf runs. I don't recall how many runs in a row from the beginning showed a U.S. landfall, but GaWx would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 GFS was always adamant about a landfall, but like the euro had some Gulf runs. I don't recall how many runs in a row from the beginning showed a U.S. landfall, but GaWx would know. Well as of now you'd have to lean towards an OTS scenario..but it wouldn't take much to make it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 maybe something to track ...... next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Well as of now you'd have to lean towards an OTS scenario..but it wouldn't take much to make it very interesting. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 How was Hur... wait tropical storm Irene Blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Check the main thread for TS Katia...mets wet-blanketing possibility of ANY landfall. lol constantly contentious tone in that thread.. not much fun I thought Don S's post was a good inventory check on this system. If it can avoid the statistically favored recurve we might be in business. I told non weather people asking me about it that it was far out and to ask again in a week if it's still out there. It's natural for people to take extra note of the next threat after a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 How was Hur... wait tropical storm Irene Blizz? As bad as many of us thought..and even worse than thought on the CT shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 As bad as many of us thought..and even worse than thought on the CT shore I am only busting your chops on the Hurricane call. I saw alot of the damage up there... really sucks to see it. Hope all get their power back and can recover quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Let's not forget the huge pool of cool water stirred up by Irene: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.8.29.2011.gif Any TC in a position to get the East Coast the way Irene did pretty much HAS to go through it. The track record is not good for second canes going through cool SSTs left behind by initial systems. If Katia misses it east it's probably too far east for all but an insanely neg tilt trough to pick it up and fling it at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 As we saw with Irene, The Western Ridge is extremely strong. Also with this being New England's year I don't rule out a shift west at all. What would happen if another storm like Irene hit New England next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Look at Katia's projected track on the bottom. How scary close is that to Irene, just pushed 400 miles east. Huh??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Look at Katia's projected track on the bottom. How scary close is that to Irene, just pushed 400 miles east. Really doesn't mean much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 recurve city. odds are way stacked against us...I think we're down to 24% of storms in this position having made US landfall? Lots of time to go though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 As we saw with Irene, The Western Ridge is extremely strong. Also with this being New England's year I don't rule out a shift west at all. What would happen if another storm like Irene hit New England next week? It Could Happen Tormorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 recurve city. odds are way stacked against us...I think we're down to 24% of storms in this position having made US landfall? Lots of time to go though Good. Let's have calm warm days for two weeks, then some cool calm weeks, maybe a little rain, then by mid October we can start tracking the 384 hour gfs for something other then the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 You Yankees already trying to claim Katia as your own? lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 As we saw with Irene, The Western Ridge is extremely strong. Also with this being New England's year I don't rule out a shift west at all. What would happen if another storm like Irene hit New England next week? This: http://www.hark.com/...te-annihilation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Earl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 After just seeing the Euro...this one is gonna recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 After just seeing the Euro...this one is gonna recurve Well played. Glad to hear all is well in Tolland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The bolded is not true at all, but everything else stands. Irene was a hit somewhere for almost every run of the GFS starting at D16 (maybe not that far but close). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Don't throw it out yet. Think it could get close enough to make things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I strongly agree. Some of the earlier guidance and also a few of the hurricane models have occasionally bent the storm back to the west. Indeed, NHC was concerned about such a possibility in last night's 11 pm discussion. there's somewhat of a subtle hint on both the 12z UKMET and GFDL about perhaps somewhat of a turn more to the west, but we'll see. Hopefully, the cold front will pick it up and sweep it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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