ORH_wxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Further west but still hooks off to the NNE.. Its a crappy pattern with the position of that longwave trough. I have almost no interest in this storm at the moment. The trough will have to go nuclear ala 1938 for this to affect us I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If mother nature has any sense of caring, this thing will curve far away from us. With the amount of trouble people are having with getting power back and fixing houses from a strong tropical storm, I can't imagine what it would be like with a legitimate hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Its a crappy pattern with the position of that longwave trough. I have almost no interest in this storm at the moment. The trough will have to go nuclear ala 1938 for this to affect us I think. Yeah, It looks like crap right now as far as anyone looking for it to make it up here, Even as far as seeing any rough surf, It hooks off at the carolina's lat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Some pretty chilly air for this time of year dropping SE out of canada into NW Maine in the upper levels at the end of that Euro run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 If mother nature has any sense of caring, this thing will curve far away from us. With the amount of trouble people are having with getting power back and fixing houses from a strong tropical storm, I can't imagine what it would be like with a legitimate hurricane. The problem is, like the honey badger, Mother Nature doesn't give a sh!t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The problem is, like the honey badger, Mother Nature doesn't give a sh!t. It canes where it wants to cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 We need a Donnie baseball update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 gfs has trended ever so slightly west, experimental FIM is a weenies dream, even though there is troughiness over the GL/NE, there will be ridges building in between, and if any trough digs far enough to the sw and is strong, well, all options are still on the table. Its all about timing, regardless it looks wet and humid the first two weeks of september. Lots of fun stuff going on right now, including the GOM, stalled fronts and the tropics. The footsteps are getting louder, models shifting westward, cane cane cane cane cane cane cane cane cane cane cane cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The trough will have to go nuclear ala 1938 for this to affect us I think. I am wondering if the second shortwave verifies less amped and stays mostly bottled up north we'd be more likely to be affected. Is there really a lot impetus for such re-amplification once the first trough at day 5 moves offshore? In the winter the raging GOA low and general Canadian LP is a signal for a zonal regime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Just shift everything a hair west and you have nearly a 1954 Edna redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Just shift everything a hair west and you have nearly a 1954 Edna redux Vermont and NH would float away if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think this one hits us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is a bit more interesting than the op...mean trough position is more favorable and further west. You'd like to see more ridging in the North Atlantic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Euro ensemble mean is a bit more interesting than the op...mean trough position is more favorable and further west. You'd like to see more ridging in the North Atlantic, though. I love when Mets say interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z op gfs is creamy............I can hear the drumbeat now.......katia.........katia.............katia........katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Jim CantoreNEW models r enough to make me feel uneasy about northeast with #Katia but I am holding judgement 4a few more days as they sort out timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z gfs almost pull's off Will's miracle trough merger...but the active northern stream beats down the North Atlantic ridge too much..otherwise that's kinda what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z op gfs is creamy............I can hear the drumbeat now.......katia.........katia.............katia........katia This is Earl written all over.. we should post link to Earl thread... I'm the biggest weenie and I'm even not that excited yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Jim CantoreNEW models r enough to make me feel uneasy about northeast with #Katia but I am holding judgement 4a few more days as they sort out timing. At least until Monday I would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 This setup is really poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z gfs almost pull's off Will's miracle trough merger...but the active northern stream beats down the North Atlantic ridge too much..otherwise that's kinda what you want. I've been reading what you're saying on the main threads. Interesting and I agree. Without stirring the irritable over there I'm just kind of shocked anyone is speaking as if they know for certain what'll happen in 8 or 9 days when some of the best mets around Boston are saying it's about 3 days too early to make a call. Models are hinting west, and in reality the 18z GFS is so close now it's a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 How well can things like ridges and troughs be forecast when data is limited over tha Pacific, etc?Not saying this can't happen, but I had thought much beyond 5 days it is sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I've been reading what you're saying on the main threads. Interesting and I agree. Without stirring the irritable over there I'm just kind of shocked anyone is speaking as if they know for certain what'll happen in 8 or 9 days when some of the best mets around Boston are saying it's about 3 days too early to make a call. Models are hinting west, and in reality the 18z GFS is so close now it's a concern. I agree, the certainty of forecasting ten days in that thread seems odd, and a bit harsh, nevertheless..........a deeper trough to the sw or a missed trough with a quick building ridge keeping westerlies at bay to the north could threaten the ECONUS. Likely a fish? perhaps, but seems odd to speak in certainties at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree, the certainty of forecasting ten days in that thread seems odd, and a bit harsh, nevertheless..........a deeper trough to the sw or a missed trough with a quick building ridge keeping westerlies at bay to the north could threaten the ECONUS. Likely a fish? perhaps, but seems odd to speak in certainties at this early stage. Do you really believe anyone can accurately forecast 10 days from now? Saying Katia is going to "miss" is like saying fall is coming. If it misses by 75 miles they're right, if it misses by 750 they're right. I trust the Boston TV mets that have been here for 30+ years that are honestly saying they do not yet think it's a threat but that it is slowly getting a little more dodgy. The idea of a trough/UA perhaps being somewhere over the MS Valley as this thing is off the coast is interesting in Will's nuclear scenario ala 1938. In a day or two if it doesn't look any more threatening great...but with the timing differences being what they are at D4-6 I just don't see how anyone can speak with absolute certainty that things won't play out differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Do you really believe anyone can accurately forecast 10 days from now? Saying Katia is going to "miss" is like saying fall is coming. If it misses by 75 miles they're right, if it misses by 750 they're right. I trust the Boston TV mets that have been here for 30+ years that are honestly saying they do not yet think it's a threat but that it is slowly getting a little more dodgy. The idea of a trough/UA perhaps being somewhere over the MS Valley as this thing is off the coast is interesting in Will's nuclear scenario ala 1938. In a day or two if it doesn't look any more threatening great...but with the timing differences being what they are at D4-6 I just don't see how anyone can speak with absolute certainty that things won't play out differently. Is anyone really doing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Do you really believe anyone can accurately forecast 10 days from now? Saying Katia is going to "miss" is like saying fall is coming. If it misses by 75 miles they're right, if it misses by 750 they're right. I trust the Boston TV mets that have been here for 30+ years that are honestly saying they do not yet think it's a threat but that it is slowly getting a little more dodgy. The idea of a trough/UA perhaps being somewhere over the MS Valley as this thing is off the coast is interesting in Will's nuclear scenario ala 1938. In a day or two if it doesn't look any more threatening great...but with the timing differences being what they are at D4-6 I just don't see how anyone can speak with absolute certainty that things won't play out differently. No, I do not, I was taken back that a professional met said it was easy once you had gotten the hang of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Do you really believe anyone can accurately forecast 10 days from now? Saying Katia is going to "miss" is like saying fall is coming. If it misses by 75 miles they're right, if it misses by 750 they're right. I trust the Boston TV mets that have been here for 30+ years that are honestly saying they do not yet think it's a threat but that it is slowly getting a little more dodgy. The idea of a trough/UA perhaps being somewhere over the MS Valley as this thing is off the coast is interesting in Will's nuclear scenario ala 1938. In a day or two if it doesn't look any more threatening great...but with the timing differences being what they are at D4-6 I just don't see how anyone can speak with absolute certainty that things won't play out differently. Yea this is what makes it interesting... This scenario is REALLY confusing as whatever the gulf low does, will affect Katia. Its really interesting and its awesome that we get to watch this on a 4 day weekend (at least for me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Speaing of sucking... how are SSTs after Irene sucked up all of the warm goodness? Have they rebounded at all? There was a post yesterday I believe about how the SSTs rebounded nicely after Irene. However, wouldn't Katia take a much different track than Irene? Kinda like a 1938 track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Go west young man..go west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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