CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The other thing that is also somewhat unlikely, but I guess worthy of discussion...is the ridge burying this thing and having it move more due west to a position east of GA and FL. It's not likely, but just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Based on the trends of late from the GFS, I would say there is a good chance it at least scrapes the cape with some rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It needs to get further south and west before it starts it's journey north. The GFS pattern at 5-8 days is pretty decent...but the hurricane starts too far out to get completely captured and closer to the coast. I'm not a history buff like some but I'm willing to bet no hurricane has hit us from the GFS position just prior to the move NW and then turn. Like you said needs to sneak further west first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not a history buff like some but I'm willing to bet no hurricane has hit us from the GFS position just prior to the move NW and then turn. Like you said needs to sneak further west first. Hermine '04 and Hurricane #3 1896 hit eastern SNE after crossing within 65 nautical miles of 32.5N, 70W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Full moon tides, look out for even minor coastal surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 If the ridging continues..it's not impossible for the Carolinas to see Katia too. Just so many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 SnowNH is a weenie prospect molded in the ilk of Ji. One day he will be a legend. Any one care to analyze the Euro? To 93 hrs, ~50-100 miles southwest of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Why!!?? I happen to enjoy SnowNH's posts...There are a lot of cowards in this thread who criticize SnowNH just because it's a fashionable thing to do and there's always safety in numbers....It's pretty weak. If he writes something stupid or inaccurate, then critique...but don't just criticize for the sake of criticizing....because when it comes to weather..often times a lot of people are wrong, and most people in this thread did a mediocre job at best predicting Irene's ultimate landfall. I'm usually wrong. I rely on Scott to set me straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Fish storm on the euro, It never makes it north of the carolinas before it heads off ENE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 can I mention the 1938 storm in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Fish storm on the euro, It never makes it north of the carolinas before it heads off ENE.. Ehh.. good trends either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 experimental resembles 12z gfs experimental FIM-ENK 186 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the anchor on the newscast after the Pats game said "It looks like it's coming right for us" after seeing the track..dumbass lol - not even me, mr. lack-o-scientific-weather-knowledge would say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Euro is a big recurve which is probably favored right now, but tough to say with 100% confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Euro is a big recurve which is probably favored right now, but tough to say with 100% confidence. How were the models with Earl and bill? Which were SE, NW etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Euro is a big recurve which is probably favored right now, but tough to say with 100% confidence. Good. I don't mind some fresh northerlies but I could do without another deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 JMHO the Euro is likely too far east long term because it's probably going to be too strong like every other storm this year. It's days away from being declared a threat or fish, but by reading the main thread I've come to the conlusion meteorology has rapidly moved forward in the last three weeks and is now an exact science. I must have missed the memo where the quantum leap was made, chaos accounted for and accuracy increased to 99.999%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Good. I don't mind some fresh northerlies but I could do without another deluge. Well you better watch out, because you might get a deluge if the front stalls...regardless of tropical moisture. Same deal with interior NJ and PA. That could be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 How were the models with Earl and bill? Which were SE, NW etc.. The global models were all too far west. The GFS is different now than it was then...I feel it does better on tropicals now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The global models were all too far west. The GFS is different now than it was then...I feel it does better on tropicals now. exFIM actually did pretty well with Irene, Ukie is left bias, but the longer Katia stays weaker the further south and west it can stay, interesting also with the TS hitting japan that is forecasted to become a powerful extropical storm and the role it may play down the line, lots of stuff going on, I would not rule out a Cape Cod grazing, or Carolina direct hit for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well you better watch out, because you might get a deluge if the front stalls...regardless of tropical moisture. Same deal with interior NJ and PA. That could be a problem. Do you mean this coming Sunday/Monday stalled front or later on down the road? A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS WILLBRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CONTINUED PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WITH ALREADY WET GROUND AND EROSION FROM RECENT FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING...FORECAST RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL IMPACTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON WILL PROVIDE FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Full moon tides, look out for even minor coastal surge. Ginx we were just over in Southport at high tide, easily 2ft+ above normal, water was in the Southpart Yacht club parking lot. I think it may be a long few weeks for coastal residents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Do you mean this coming Sunday/Monday stalled front or later on down the road? Yes that front, and any possible moisture running north from Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Yes that front, and any possible moisture running north from Lee. Thanks kindly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 JMHO the Euro is likely too far east long term because it's probably going to be too strong like every other storm this year. It's days away from being declared a threat or fish, but by reading the main thread I've come to the conlusion meteorology has rapidly moved forward in the last three weeks and is now an exact science. I must have missed the memo where the quantum leap was made, chaos accounted for and accuracy increased to 99.999%. lol ironic, as so many confident pro forecasts on this board (inside 48 hrs!) were burned by irene appreciate your comments as always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 exFIM actually did pretty well with Irene, Ukie is left bias, but the longer Katia stays weaker the further south and west it can stay, interesting also with the TS hitting japan that is forecasted to become a powerful extropical storm and the role it may play down the line, lots of stuff going on, I would not rule out a Cape Cod grazing, or Carolina direct hit for that matter. Recurve city bro, east and west, big big winter incoming as well as some real fall air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Ginx we were just over in Southport at high tide, easily 2ft+ above normal, water was in the Southpart Yacht club parking lot. I think it may be a long few weeks for coastal residents. Yea CF warnings out, lots of dunes are gone in SRI, nightmare scenario for next one if it comes but a very big problem for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 lol ironic, as so many confident pro forecasts on this board (inside 48 hrs!) were burned by irene appreciate your comments as always Lol its hilarious.. with a 7 day threat too... also a Guy can post the 168 JMA, but tip gets criticized for mentioning the pattern of 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 It appears with the strogner Atlantic ridge and KAtia...the front that was supposed to sail thru and give us an early autumnal preview next week..now gets hung up right over the heart of SNE. Days of humidity and training rains looking more likely Sunday-mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 It appears with the strogner Atlantic ridge and KAtia...the front that was supposed to sail thru and give us an early autumnal preview next week..now gets hung up right over the heart of SNE. Days of humidity and training rains looking more likely Sunday-mid week If the euro is right, it would be tropical muggies, followed by chilly rain/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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