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Katia tracking and discussion thread


Damage In Tolland

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we haven't really mad any progress in the last 24 hours re: Katia getting closer to the US. If anything the northern stream is becoming more dominant in the Nova Scotia area and the hurricane isn't getting much past 70W. These need to change in order to get something..but time is slowly running out.

Well I guess I'll stop following this then and start following Lee.

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12z GFS skims Nantucket

Most models agree on a NW track to N, then a slow period, an eventual move W or WNW before a curve N then NE. I HIGHLY doubt the models have a real firm grasp on how far west it'll roll after the first trough misses, and/or how fast it'll curve.

If both fail and it doesn't move as far west curving earlier it is one huge miss, if it ends up further west before the turn we have a real nasty noreaster here.

If it ends up both further west and is slower to turn it could get interesting.

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Most models agree on a NW track to N, then a slow period, an eventual move W or WNW before a curve N then NE. I HIGHLY doubt the models have a real firm grasp on how far west it'll roll after the first trough misses, and/or how fast it'll curve.

If both fail and it doesn't move as far west curving earlier it is one huge miss, if it ends up further west before the turn we have a real nasty noreaster here.

If it ends up both further west and is slower to turn it could get interesting.

No way, ten day forecasting is easy, and there is no way this comes close to the east coast.

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No way, ten day forecasting is easy, and there is no way this comes close to the east coast.

If you say a hurricane will miss the east coast about 95% of the time you'll be right.

That's close enough at 7 days that it needs to be watched. A tick west of the magnitude that we saw inside of 72 hours on Irene would put cape cod in the heavy rain shield.

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Im out to 162 on wunderground and it looks like it's still going to miss wide right with a sharp re-curve. Pretty interesting to see a drastic jump like this though especially with some support from the CMC.

Euro moved about 550 miles WSW this run when comparing h174 0z to h162 12z.

There likely is something to the existence of an UL over the OV at that critical time but the Euro opens it up and we lose the system luckily before there is much harm. The CMC not so much.

Regardless if this is not a model blip or intake error, we're going to have something to watch even if it ends up missing.

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Euro moved about 550 miles WSW this run when comparing h174 0z to h162 12z.

There likely is something to the existence of an UL over the OV at that critical time but the Euro opens it up and we lose the system luckily before there is much harm. The CMC not so much.

Regardless if this is not a model blip or intake error, we're going to have something to watch even if it ends up missing.

Dude, saw your post on the main thread about losing posts i think it's just mods deleting your posts cause you're not a red tagger. That thread is extremely heavily moderated and if you post multiple posts in a row they will typically delete at least one or two of them just fyi. They want ppl to put all their thoughts into one post to keep the quality of the thread high. Appreciate your analysis though.

I was looping through the 500 mb pattern on the ECMWF and the OV closed low seems to retrograde NNW/NW from about hr 114 in TN to central IL at around hr 156 before moving back east and booting Katia away just in time before driving on shore. What is causing the OV low to move westward?

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