Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Katia tracking and discussion thread


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

Ya gotta love the 06z GFS and the tease it is for the whole eastern seaboard. Nice hard right turn there. If that Katia can head W another 150-200m W before taking that hard right, eastern areas could be threatened.

Don't worry, am19psu is certain that won't happen and he gets paid the big bucks to be certain so it really isn't even worth speculating about.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 713
  • Created
  • Last Reply

You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2

Intensity forecasts I take with more of a grain of salt than position. This has gone from a 100% fish to its worth a watch in a day, inteesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DB...

Laptop raising

Several additional thoughts:

First, the satellite presenation has continued to improve. I believe Katia has probably reached hurricane strength.

Second, in terms of the FSU-generated analogs (9/2 12z), I believe a number of them are not very good. The worst ones, IMO, are Fox (1950), Holly (1969), Frances (1976), and Irene (1981). The synoptic pattern does not support such early recurvature this time around.

FWIW, my ten analogs at this point would be: H4 (1893), H1 (1927), Gladys (1975), Gloria (1985), Luis (1995), Edouard (1996), Bonnie (1998), Floyd (1999), Bill (2009), and Earl (2010). Those with perhaps the closest 500 mb pattern to what is expected on the 9/2 0z GFS ensembles between 168h and 192h would be, in chronological order, Gladys (1975), Luis (1995), and Floyd (1999).

The mean and median positions for the farthest west those 10 storms came were 73.8W and 73.6W respectively. 80% of the storms reached 70.0W, 70% reached 72.5W, and 40% reached 75.0W. The 9/2 0z Euro comes to around 73.0W, perhaps a little farther when one considers a curved not linear track.

U.S. landfall occurred in 40% of the cases. Once one takes the more similar synoptic patterns (relative to that on the GFS ensembles) into consideration, 33% made U.S. landfall.

70% of the above-mentioned storms reached Category 4. All grew into major hurricanes.

Right now, if I had to venture a guess concerning Katia's track, that guess would be:

17.5N 52.8W

20.0N 56.8W

25.0N 63.9W

30.0N 72.0W

35.0N 69.6W

40.0N 63.5W

Farthest west: probably somewhere between 72.0W and 74.0W. Hence, there is room for a track farther west than what I've outlined.

Finally, I still believe odds favor recurvature. But prospects for a landfall are not insignificant and only a modest change in the evolution of the 500 mb pattern and Katia's response to it could lead to such an outcome. A Floyd-like track would probably be a worst-case scenario. Hurricane #1 (1927) and Gladys (1975) might offer the best analogs. Of course, things can still change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to wonder about forecast intensities..models and NHC....all calling for Katia to get to a strong 4 or even 5.. Same deal with irene..They've been way too jacked up wit the strength of these things.. Looks like the shear of Katia is still gonna be there for another day or 2..so it makes you wonder if it ever gets much stronger than a cat 2

Would be interesting if there is a trend to overforecast western Atlantic TC strength this season.

We never really had a solid post-mortem on why Irene struggled:

If it was the southeast US drought setting up antecedent dry air that got mixed in, this may impact Katia in the same way. Or it may not if a slow-moving Lee can inject more tropical air into the southeast.

If it was multiple ERCs, shear or something else unique to Irene synoptics, NHC should be more likely to hit it right with a Cat 4 peak Katia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Elaborate

I'm not sure if you had power or not when Will was talking about a 38 situation being the only real hope with Katia. If I recall that was a system with an upper low to the west that drew a storm into LI that was actually starting further east than most.

That's kind of the rough scenario we are seeing playing out. To me the GFS looks like it's not quite going to do it, the system coming out of Hudsons Bay should be able to boot it east but damn it's getting close.

BTW, agree with you on intensity forecasts....not sure this gets as strong as they think. If we have another one coming 20-30% weaker than forecast in 2-3 days will be interesting to figure out why.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS has a deep ULL over the south all the while ridging to the northeast of Katia tries to build in. It goes just se of the BM, but boy that is closer for sure.

Look at the difference in placement of low between 6z and 12z at 186h and 180h. lol

We pretty much have to thread the needle like a 1938 to get impact right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure if you had power or not when Will was talking about a 38 situation being the only real hope with Katia. If I recall that was a system with an upper low to the west that drew a storm into LI that was actually starting further east than most.

That's kind of the rough scenario we are seeing playing out. To me the GFS looks like it's not quite going to do it, the system coming out of Hudsons Bay should be able to boot it east but damn it's getting close.

BTW, agree with you on intensity forecasts....not sure this gets as strong as they think. If we have another one coming 20-30% weaker than forecast in 2-3 days will be interesting to figure out why.

It's different than the '38 storm since it comes in more from the east and north, but you really need that ULL combined with building ridging to the northeast. We also have the westerlies that try to descend in from the northwest that helps kick it out, but it could be a little different if the ridging to the northeast builds more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

its really pissing me off that every post I make in that main thread gets deleted, so I guess I'll post in here and lurk in there.

anyway, at 180 it looks like those westerlies are quite high up north, but it still gets yanked OTS pretty sharply after that...what's giving it that push?

edit: just saw the post above which basically answered what I just asked

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...