bobbutts Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All you guys ganging up on the same poster is very, very weak!! He's over-reacting emotionally to a slight backyard qpf reduction on the 18z GFS.. It's going to get a reaction every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The one thing that could increase the 8-12" ceiling for the 2nd event is ocean enhancement. 1/7-8/94 and 2/8-9/94 were both SWFEs, and both had widespread ~16" amounts from BOS to the North Shore due to ocean enhancement. The potential would definitely be better if the NAM is more correct on the low-level temp profiles, which I believe it is. I was just going to post that for those who really like to cater to their "extreme" fetish and want to rationalize an aggregate 1-2' event, this maybe counter intuitive because it is human nature to focus on the "main event", but you are better served to focus on the appetizer because that is the one that has yet to realize it's full potential....I believe this to be the case because as a general rule of thumb, events characterized by a sw flow at the mid levels of that atmosphere (AKA swfes) have a ceiling of about 8-12" and the main event has already reached that. If this two-headed monster is to evolve into a 1-2' event, then we are going to have to see that 1st event trend into an 8-12"er, as well because the "main event" is not going to grow any larger due to the time constraints inherent to swfes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Box has me at 9+ now...seems high. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's try it this way: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1st time I'm on the bb since early AM. Bottom line: My 73 for BOS in late Sept has a better than 50% chance of being reached or exceeded by Thurs AM. :snowman: :snowman: \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 freeze that map looks good to me, no ice please.....but getting the generator out just in case and bringing in extra firewood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1st time I'm on the bb since early AM. Bottom line: My 73 for BOS in late Sept has a better than 50% chance of being reached or exceeded by Thurs AM. :snowman: :snowman: \ 1717 or Bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z GFS was definitely a weenie run for BOS-ORH...getting very good snows from both rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WMUR going 12-20" for the everything south of Berlin, 8-12 North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The one thing that could increase the 8-12" ceiling for the 2nd event is ocean enhancement. 1/7-8/94 and 2/8-9/94 were both SWFEs, and both had widespread ~16" amounts from BOS to the North Shore due to ocean enhancement. The potential would definitely be better if the NAM is more correct on the low-level temp profiles, which I believe it is. This is true, but that still wouldn't justify that excessively high totals over the interior. Almost seems like BOX is just hedging high based on seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know...those hefty amounts even in nrn mass may be difficult...not impossible but difficult. If we see 8" tomorrow and then 4" or so Wednesday Night, perhaps. I just envision a 6-9 hr blob of 30+dbz echoes coming through here on Wednesday and then it's gone not too long after 18z.. Afterwards, maybe left over lighter snows or sleet/ZR until early evening where it could flip back to snow. I guess I would like to see the H7 low under sne to get the big amounts and to realize model qpf. Even the 850 low isn't in a classic position. Of course if tomorrow is maximized and we can get 4-5" of fluff on Wednesday Night....perhaps 20"+ is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1st time I'm on the bb since early AM. Bottom line: My 73 for BOS in late Sept has a better than 50% chance of being reached or exceeded by Thurs AM. :snowman: :snowman: \ Unreal that you could actually verify this call. But I'm not complaining about busting my winter forecast when I look out the window and admire my 2-foot snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's try it this way: They already lowered it a tick.....keep going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The real difference between the NAM and the GFS was round 1. BOX thinks the NAM's better resolution is showing the LL frontogenesis better than the GFS. Whether or not this is true remains to be seen, but I feel pretty good that even the GFS which "sucks" for round 1 is still over a foot here and probably by a good margin when ratios are factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The one thing that could increase the 8-12" ceiling for the 2nd event is ocean enhancement. 1/7-8/94 and 2/8-9/94 were both SWFEs, and both had widespread ~16" amounts from BOS to the North Shore due to ocean enhancement. The potential would definitely be better if the NAM is more correct on the low-level temp profiles, which I believe it is. I could see that tomorrow too. In fact, I mentioned that earlier. Even signs of CF enhancement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL who's the poster "ILOVECTBLIZZ" you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I could see that tomorrow too. In fact, I mentioned that earlier. Even signs of CF enhancement too. Yea, for Boston and se MA...maybe the immediate N shore, not interior Middlesex co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 blizzard warning in wisconsin outline drifts to 10 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know...those hefty amounts even in nrn mass may be difficult...not impossible but difficult. If we see 8" tomorrow and then 4" or so Wednesday Night, perhaps. I just envision a 6-9 hr blob of 30+dbz echoes coming through here on Wednesday and then it's gone not too long after 18z.. Afterwards, maybe left over lighter snows or sleet/ZR until early evening where it could flip back to snow. I guess I would like to see the H7 low under sne to get the big amounts and to realize model qpf. Even the 850 low isn't in a classic position. Of course if tomorrow is maximized and we can get 4-5" of fluff on Wednesday Night....perhaps 20"+ is realized. 9" here and on Cape Cod by Otis is going to be very difficult unless models all go south at 0z/stay south and the ultimate solution is 20-30 miles south. Otherwise 4-7" is probably tops here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS even brings that Saturday night special up someone's fanny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what is Harvey calling for? anyone have a tv screen capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
42N72W Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Must be a dry slot. Nashua to Laconia is partly to mostly cloudy it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow.. the gfs really sucks for NH and ME.. 6-12 inches verbatim.. this Is What I was worried about yesterday.. if we don't cash in on the first one its Just another moderate snow event.. damn dryslot Expectations lowered to 10-12 here Shut.. Up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Unreal that you could actually verify this call. But I'm not complaining about busting my winter forecast when I look out the window and admire my 2-foot snowpack. I felt it would happen but in my wildest dreams I couldn't have imagined it done in the first few days of February. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Excellent ratios tomorrow as well. Yeah 12" will be easy, even assuming 10:1. big time fail if we don't break a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM bufkit is a total mess in N. CT...has mainly all snow for round 1 but does mix us...then for HFD it pretty much as all IP/ZR for round 2...it even has rain...which I would say would be ZR...this run would probably be a decent icing event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like an old image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 9" here and on Cape Cod by Otis is going to be very difficult unless models all go south at 0z/stay south and the ultimate solution is 20-30 miles south. Otherwise 4-7" is probably tops here. And if they tick north, then probably lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 what is Harvey calling for? anyone have a tv screen capture? 12-20 north of a line from LWM-FIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 To have elements of 1960-61, 1993-94, and 1995-96 visit us in the same winter....over the same 35 day period is simply mind boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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