Brian5671 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 While some people (like you) call bad patterns great patterns. When the potential is real the "debbies" get stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where have our non region Debbies been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where have our non region Debbies been? I'm pretty sure they all ate one another in a psychotic rage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If next week plays out as modeled, I really think this starts to become a legitimate public safety issue (as if it isn't already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Where have our non region Debbies been? I do kind of miss the daily troll post from Allsnow in a sick way...the once-a-day drive by like clockwork talking about how awful the pattern is and wouldn't bring more snow or some other aspect that was bad like how far below average ORH was for snow...you name it. At any rate, no sign of the pattern going sour...cold and plenty of storm chances right through mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I do kind of miss the daily troll post from Allsnow in a sick way...the once-a-day drive by like clockwork talking about how awful the pattern is and wouldn't bring more snow or some other aspect that was bad like how far below average ORH was for snow...you name it. At any rate, no sign of the pattern going sour...cold and plenty of storm chances right through mid-February. That is some pattern on the ensembles. You would think NYC could cash in on something by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Question for the long range guys. It's a long ways out there, but do you have any preliminary thoughts on mid-late March for northern NE? Reason I ask is I have time off from work to go on a ski trip with my brother. Initial plan was to go to Snowmass Colorado where my Dad will be, but looks like the tough winter out West will continue for the foreseeable future. Northern VT looks like it's having the best conditions in the entire country now, so I'm kinda thinking that our best bet is to go there, but later in March is typically a wild card in the northeast. We had great luck with northern VT in March 2013 with deep winter conditions. Thanks in advance for any advice. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Question for the long range guys. It's a long ways out there, but do you have any preliminary thoughts on mid-late March for northern NE? Reason I ask is I have time off from work to go on a ski trip with my brother. Initial plan was to go to Snowmass Colorado where my Dad will be, but looks like the tough winter out West will continue for the foreseeable future. Northern VT looks like it's having the best conditions in the entire country now, so I'm kinda thinking that our best bet is to go there, but later in March is typically a wild card in the northeast. We had great luck with northern VT in March 2013 with deep winter conditions. Thanks in advance for any advice. Sent from my SM-G900V Right now, I'd say March looks pretty damned good...but late March is always a wildcard. Anywhere in NNE though in late March usually has excellent skiing if the winter as a whole has been prolific...which looks to continue through February anyway. So even if you get some temps in the 40s or 50s, you'll have epic bases and corn snow to ski on. You just want to avoid a nasty rainer. I was up at Sunday River last March 22-23 and it wa sliterally mid-winter conditions...50" natural snow depth at the base of the mountain (like 900 feet elevation) and probably 6-8 feet higher up in the Jordan Bowl. But the temps were in the teens and 20s and there had been zero thaws recently, so it was powder and packed powder conditions...not late March corn snow, lol. Sugarloaf is always a good late season destination if you are worried...their extra latitude protects them and really prolongs the season. Ditto Saddleback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Question for the long range guys. It's a long ways out there, but do you have any preliminary thoughts on mid-late March for northern NE? Reason I ask is I have time off from work to go on a ski trip with my brother. Initial plan was to go to Snowmass Colorado where my Dad will be, but looks like the tough winter out West will continue for the foreseeable future. Northern VT looks like it's having the best conditions in the entire country now, so I'm kinda thinking that our best bet is to go there, but later in March is typically a wild card in the northeast. We had great luck with northern VT in March 2013 with deep winter conditions. Thanks in advance for any advice. Sent from my SM-G900V I have skied the third week of March at SR for 18 years in a row, never had a really bad trip, worst yet best was 2012 skiing at 90 degrees but on a whole Mid week March in NNE is gold, 3rd week is the best week as its the week of non Canadian kid vacations, with the 100 inches Sugar loaf has received this year conditions will be great. Not guaranteed glades but regular trails will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Question for the long range guys. It's a long ways out there, but do you have any preliminary thoughts on mid-late March for northern NE? Reason I ask is I have time off from work to go on a ski trip with my brother. Initial plan was to go to Snowmass Colorado where my Dad will be, but looks like the tough winter out West will continue for the foreseeable future. Northern VT looks like it's having the best conditions in the entire country now, so I'm kinda thinking that our best bet is to go there, but later in March is typically a wild card in the northeast. We had great luck with northern VT in March 2013 with deep winter conditions. Thanks in advance for any advice. Sent from my SM-G900V You'll be fine unless we do March 2010 again with 70s in the mountains for days on end lol. The skiing is unreal right now, hope we can keep it going. The wet paste storms really set us up, that Dec 10th cut-off bomb that brought 2-3 feet of 7:1 ratio snow pretty much made the winter up here. Recently it was added by a foot of heavy dense snow in mid-January when it rained east of I-91. Since then we've had 2 feet of blower to top it off from the clipper, upslope and Monday's 8-10 incher. I really can't remember the mountains up here skiing like this to start February. Only 2010-2011 was similar in just steady snowfalls all winter so far. This is quickly becoming my favorite skiing winter because it's not like it's just been good for 2 weeks, overall it's been positive since mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Thanks much ORH, Ginxy and Powderfreak. Sugarloaf could be another option for us. That's one great area in the east that I've never been to but would love to go to. I wish I could just take a trip next week based on how epic conditions are now, but I'm thinking barring a March 2010 or 2012 torch, we'll be in great shape in NNE. Can only hope it's as good as week of 3/17-3/23/13 in NVT. Stowe and Jay were incredible that week. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sugarloaf rocks! I have been skiing there since 1983 and the variety of terrain never disappoints. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Sugarloaf rocks! I have been skiing there since 1983 and the variety of terrain never disappoints. :-)Big mountain. When there is abundant snow it is the best skiing in the East period.Edit: Saddleback is also big Western Maine Mountain skiing and is awesome with good snow cover. (Of course all mountains are awesome with good snow cover but SL and Saddleback are still somewhat hidden treasures relative to their VT & NH counterparts and huge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Incredible cold somewhere around feb 14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Incredible cold somewhere around feb 14? Yeah, lets get the focus back on our next big event. This weekend early week thing might be kinda moderate so why not start looking for the next big opportunity. I think 2 days ago the feeling was the teleconnections were suggesting something just post-vday. Perhaps your cold shot and then an Archembault event a couple days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Just curious, what are the records in the big New England cities for most days with recorded snowfall in a winter? Not suggesting we are approaching those levels, but would be interesting from a historical perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 how is the last week of Feb looking on the long range models? thinking about heading up north to do some snowmobiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Weeklies cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Weeklies cold. any estimates of our next date of interest after the current 12" of meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 any estimates of our next date of interest after the current 12" of meh? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off LOOKING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHPRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FAST ON ITS HEELS SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The AO looks like it's going to spike. Given the aforementioned, what is expected to keep the cold air in place in the weeklies? Is the EPO expected to go negative again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Clipper parade lining up it seems... we'll do well with accums almost every other or every third day possible. Ski areas are going to be absolutely ridiculous in another two weeks at this rate. Its already bordering on all-time conditions with tons of light powder on top of the bomber base from earlier in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The pattern is just relentless in how it builds again through mid-month....the current storm threat is the relaxation period...but we managed to escape the torch that a large chunk of the CONUS gets as we stay north of the arctic boundary. The PAC reloads and it is pure -EPO/+PNA cold transport right into central and eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The pattern is just relentless in how it builds again through mid-month....the current storm threat is the relaxation period...but we managed to escape the torch that a large chunk of the CONUS gets as we stay north of the arctic boundary. The PAC reloads and it is pure -EPO/+PNA cold transport right into central and eastern US. seriously awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Great thanks for answering looks.like the EPO will outweigh the positive AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 The pattern is just relentless in how it builds again through mid-month....the current storm threat is the relaxation period...but we managed to escape the torch that a large chunk of the CONUS gets as we stay north of the arctic boundary. The PAC reloads and it is pure -EPO/+PNA cold transport right into central and eastern US. And I'd like to underscore that ... or bold it I guess ... As I was discussing earlier, the -EPO/+PNA coupled phase state is actually the less likely physical construct of the synoptic circulation medium. CDC matrix correlation table has these two indices as fairly significantly positively correlated in Dec, but does weak more to neutral by Feb. Still, I think there is vestigial noise/physics in the air that tends these two to move together... Anyway, that all said, it makes sense they would tend to not actually be polarized, because to do so would require some kind of ginormous wave-space anomaly from the western end of the PNA domain ...all the way to Chicago! So getting one? Yeah, that's got to be close to a primary Hemispheric-scaled cold conveyor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Great thanks for answering looks.like the EPO will outweigh the positive AO Much of last winter's historic cold in the MW that we occasionally tasted locally was during antecedent and on-going +AO/-EPO regime... There really aren't that many ridged definitions to teleconnectors. You can have warm and cool anomalies relative to any phase of any teleconnector. It's simple a matter of probabilities... Yeah, ur less likely to get a cool snap in a +NAO. But WAIT! We can do it with a -EPO instead... The AO is the domain space above the 60th parallel. The EPO covers much of the NE Pac below that far N, as well as the Alaskan Sector. Placing a synoptic ridge there pulls polarward air into the Canad, regardless of whether the whole of the AO domain space happens to be positive or not. In fact, I have seen -AO dump almost all the cold off-load into Eurasia, and we balm - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 record breaking cold in the range of the 13th-16th? It looks ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Dirty rain in NW blamed on ash from Japan volcano, hysplit plumes traced it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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