February pattern discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Just go cold the rest of the month until something changes.

[Ginx snewx]

Do the weeklies come out soon?

-9 -9 -4 -3

[EastonSN+]

Thanks all

[Quincy]

Down to -3F at TAN and -2F PYM.

[The 4 Seasons]

It's 0°F @ MMK and DXR and -1°F at one of the North Haven stations.

 

I don't think ive ever seen it this cold, this early in the night. I've seen a lot of negative readings around here but they usually occur in the 4-7AM timeframe with good radiational cooling. It was 1°F @ 9PM and 0°F @ 10PM!

[EastonSN+]

It looks like the PNA loome to plummet in the coming days. Will this allow for a warn up in the east?

[toller65]

BOX AFD says "no"

&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW - CONTINUED BITTERLY COLD - NO BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN - NEXT CHANCE OF WARMTH: SOMETIME SPRING INTO SUMMER

THURSDAY ONWARD... OF ONLY CERTAINTY IS THE EXPECTATION OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WHICH ADDITIONAL ENERGY ALOFT YIELDS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND ADVERSE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR. APPEARING AS IF THE SNOWY AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMP PATTERN CONTINUES...NEVER ENDING. CPC 6-10/8-14 AND CIPS ANALOGS AT 192-HOURS OUT WOULD ALL AGREE THAT WE REMAIN IN THE FREEZER.

[N. OF PIKE]

The PNA sure does tank on some guidance . That was a nice 20 day cutter free period.

I would assume if the PNA tank pans out we will need -EPO for cold and either luck or solid -NAO to limit cutters past day 8-9

[mahk_webstah]

Would retrogression also include the Atlantic and put the east based -nao into Greenland?

[Quincy]

Coldest February since 1979 in the cards? BDL pacing to break that and Boston would obliterate it if the month ended after this week that's just beginning. If the cold stays, it could be the coldest February since 1934.

Boston February:

1934: 17.5

2015: 19.6

1936: 22.8

1979: 23.1

Windsor Locks February:

1934: 16.5

2015: 17.4

1979: 18.0

I'm at work, so I didn't have time to go beyond 1934. Obviously climo says we start warming up, but barring some sort of extreme warmup in the final days of February, I think both stations have the coldest February since 1934.

[ariof]

Coldest February since 1979 in the cards? BDL pacing to break that and Boston would obliterate it if the month ended after this week that's just beginning. If the cold stays, it could be the coldest February since 1934.

Boston February:

1934: 17.5

2015: 19.6

1936: 22.8

1979: 23.1

Windsor Locks February:

1934: 16.5

2015: 17.4

1979: 18.0

I'm at work, so I didn't have time to go beyond 1934. Obviously climo says we start warming up, but barring some sort of extreme warmup in the final days of February, I think both stations have the coldest February since 1934.

 

Note that Feb '34 is by far the coldest single month at BOS ever; next coldest was Jan 1875/88 (20.1) followed by Feb 1886 (20.6) and everything else over 21. If MEX numbers verify for the next week, BOS, now at 17.5, will be sitting at 17.0 with five days left in the month. If those five days come in cold, BOS should be able to break the all-time monthly record, which is especially astounding since Feb '34 had the mythical -18 all-time record mixed in there. If MEX verify and then we flip to climo (40/25) for the rest of the month beyond then, we still wind up at 19.7, which is still the second-coldest single month ever. If the long term GFS verifies (or the Euro w/o the cutter) we're probably looking at the coldest month in Boston's recorded history.

 

This is astounding, and magnified by the 7 feet of snow in the past three weeks with no melting. Add to that the fact that we very well may set records (at BOS/Logan) for longest time at/below 32˚ and 40˚; 16 and 38 days respectively. Just an epic, epic stretch—what happened in the upper Midwest last winter but 1000 miles east. Congrats Newfoundland/KEF 2016?

[Damage In Tolland]

Hopefully the PNA going negative doesn't hurt us..but that's not a good sign

[CoastalWx]

EPO may remain - despite -PNA. I mentioned yesterday the pattern could relax a bit. Could. If the ridge is positioned right, it could be SWFE-ish.

[Ginx snewx]

Hopefully the PNA going negative doesn't hurt us..but that's not a good sign

Nothing has changed in LR modeling for our sensible weather. Waxes and wanes of PNA as systems impact the west but we stay on our cold island. Looks stormy

[Ginx snewx]

I do think Feb 20th will be the pinnacle of extreme cold and will be the last of the Siberian outbreaks ,meaning -30 850,with that moderation opens us up to the Gulf and southern stream action. Historically in cold winters late Feb and March rock if southern stream is involved as SSts are at their seasonal minimum. East and Southeast flow can snow even to the coast. How high with snow can we go is the question. Looks very high to me

[mahk_webstah]

I ain't scareda no -PNA.  I've learned what it means to live up here.  We have had very little long range discussion lately, given everything that has been on the plate over the last few weeks.  But I think it is time to start the convo, given only a light event ahead of us this week. 

 

Generally what I think happens over the next 10 days, based on my deep meteorological knowledge and the Tarot cards, is that:

1. the midatlantic joins the party at least to some extent
2. the cold continues in New England, with no sign of significant moderation
3. 3 storms affect new england with more precip south, although the possibility of something decent up here over the weekend
4. an activated southern stream which diversifies the kinds of storms that start to affect us. 
5. a real possibility of a Miller A the week of Feb 23.
6. * wildcard is that -NAO ridging begins to retrograde a bit.

 

I think what happens after a potentially large storm near the end of the month is most interesting:

 

• does the pattern just reload and continue via the -EPO?  We have seen several episodes of a shift to -PNA that includes -EPO, and is followed to a return of +PNA
• do changing wavelengths actually shift the pattern in some significant way?
• does the -NAO make an appearance?  There would be some climotological Nino-based reasoning for this, no?
• does the winter pattern simply collapse and let spring emerge.  

[Ginx snewx]

<p>

I ain't scareda no -PNA. I've learned what it means to live up here. We have had very little long range discussion lately, given everything that has been on the plate over the last few weeks. But I think it is time to start the convo, given only a light event ahead of us this week.

Generally what I think happens over the next 10 days, based on my deep meteorological knowledge and the Tarot cards, is that:

• the midatlantic joins the party at least to some extent
• the cold continues in New England, with no sign of significant moderation
• 3 storms affect new england with more precip south, although the possibility of something decent up here over the weekend
• an activated southern stream which diversifies the kinds of storms that start to affect us.
• a real possibility of a Miller A the week of Feb 23.
• * wildcard is that -NAO ridging begins to retrograde a bit.

I think what happens after a potentially large storm near the end of the month is most interesting:

• does the pattern just reload and continue via the -EPO? We have seen several episodes of a shift to -PNA that includes -EPO, and is followed to a return of +PNA
• do changing wavelengths actually shift the pattern in some significant way?
• does the -NAO make an appearance? There would be some climotological Nino-based reasoning for this, no?
• does the winter pattern simply collapse and let spring emerge.

actually status quo only in a different way. More snow more cold

[N. OF PIKE]

Looking at the AO progged to spike HUGE...the NAO to rise further

 

And the PNA to tank from positive .....to -1 to -2 .

 

I would say enjoy the cutter free period we have had thru end of week. After that we are gonna need some luck to produce past day say 12 or so, w Caveat that Teleconnector look is consistent enough. (my hope is those warm SST anomalies off Pacific continue the feedback mechanism of pumping up the ridge) and that as we get closer to end of month ridge pops back up.

 

If we have a -EPO toward end of month,  we can stay in ice box and maybe back to Early -Mid Jan Pattern. Albeit with season temps about 10 higher than early January.

 

I think the stats are pretty clear how SNE does with 6" snows  and - PNA ridge and No blocking. (we were just shown we just need the ridge)

 

Just something to watch longer term, as well as heights in AK

 

doesn't mean BN temp period is over, but we should def get a thaw, but the "snowiness" of pattern looks to shift back to NNE end of month, IMO unless that PNA ridge pops back and I mean how long can it snow like crazy in SNE

[CoastalWx]

Looking at the AO progged to spike HUGE...the NAO to rise further

 

And the PNA to tank from positive .....to -1 to -2 .

 

I would say enjoy the cutter free period we have had thru end of week. After that we are gonna need some serious luck to produce past day 10, w Caveat that Teleconnector look is consistent enough. (my hope is those warm SST anomalies off Pacific continue the feedback mechanism of pumping up the ridge) and that as we get closer to end of month ridge pops back up.

 

If we have a -EPO toward end of month, I guess we can stay in ice box and maybe back to Early -Mid Jan Pattern. Albeit with season temps about 10 higher than early January.

 

I think the stats are pretty clear how SNE does with 6" snows  and No PNA ridge and No blocking. (we were just shown how you only need the ridge) 

 

That;s GEFS based which have a GOAK trough. EC looked more -EPOish. Either way, it probably relaxes a bit, but that doesn't have to mean the end either.

[mahk_webstah]

Looking at the AO progged to spike HUGE...the NAO to rise further

 

And the PNA to tank from positive .....to -1 to -2 .

 

I would say enjoy the cutter free period we have had thru end of week. After that we are gonna need some serious luck to produce past day 10, w Caveat that Teleconnector look is consistent enough. (my hope is those warm SST anomalies off Pacific continue the feedback mechanism of pumping up the ridge) and that as we get closer to end of month ridge pops back up.

 

If we have a -EPO toward end of month, I guess we can stay in ice box and maybe back to Early -Mid Jan Pattern. Albeit with season temps about 10 higher than early January.

 

I think the stats are pretty clear how SNE does with 6" snows  and No PNA ridge and No blocking. (we were just shown how you only need the ridge) 

You have articulated what could be the rather ugly end of our winter...certainly one of the possibilities.  I think though that seasonal changes won't allow a return to that early Jan pattern.  At least I hope.

[CoastalWx]

I think people are reacting a bit much.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think people are reacting a bit much.

what do you mean

 

it's just a simple discussion , no emotions . Could be transient....but needs to be watched closely

[Allsnow]

I think people are reacting a bit much.

Next weekend I feel is our last threat down here....Pattern breaking down.....cutters will come

[CoastalWx]

what do you mean

 

it's just a simple discussion , no emotions . Could be transient....but needs to be watched closely

I mean the whole discussion about cutters warmth etc. Not sure the pattern going forward is gonna happen as some models have it. Even if a cutter were to happen...I want to see more than that to justify a change. As of now, it seems it relaxes perhaps, but if the EC is correct..it's still relaitvely cold and stormy. Weeklies come out later today.

[CoastalWx]

Next weekend I feel is our last threat down here....Pattern breaking down.....cutters will come

 

I must be missing something.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol. Even with things still looking great still some weenies worrying . This is locked in thru April

[CoastalWx]

Lol. Even with things still looking great still some weenies worrying . This is locked in thru April

 

Naturally climo comes in and there will be waxing and waning. Although the MJO forcing may act to cause the ridge to retro towards the Bering Sea, seems like another wave will move east later in Feb and early March. I don't see a huge pattern shift.

[mahk_webstah]

I think people are reacting a bit much.

I hope you don't think I am.  I just wanted to get a sense of possibilities of where it is heading because  1) we haven't talked about it as much because of what has been on the table  in the short-med range for the last month, and 2)  after my 2 day trip up here, I am not back until March 1.

 

I feel optimistic but not sure if that optimism is warranted....and totally intrigued by what could happen late this season given all the factors at play, and El Nino late winter climo.

[Typhoon Tip]

The long-wave storm has ended... 

 

Don't rely on that dependable periodicity between subsequent events we enjoyed over the last three weeks, because the atmosphere is shifting toward a new paradigm.  What exactly that will entail is unknown, but on a more explanatory level:  

 

As this northern stream suppression wanes late in the week, we're likely to have found our way back to that same pattern that for the most part dominated mid Dec through mid January, where the western ridge associated with the +PNA  ... nuanced it's way to a position along 130 or 120 or so W.  I discussed this in the other thread, but in short, that is less than ideal for maintaining S/W integrity E of the Rockies because it sets up a deconstructive wave interference pattern.  

 

But that in its self may be transitory ... prior to a much more profound larger scaled systemic modulation of the circulation over this side of the Hemisphere.  Less than certain.. but the longer lead teleconnectors really are pointing to the EPO.  It would appear it is that teleconnector vs the universe between D6 and 15.  

 

With the NAO statically (apparently) positive, the AO just a huge gain to perhaps exceed +3 SD, and the +PNA collapsing negative, if it were not for the EPO remaining feebly negative out toward the end of week two, I don't see anything stopping some kind of huge shift in the layout of temperature and precipitation anomalies at that time.   But the EPO remaining negative challenges all that... 

 

I'd also add that we have seen EPO rises correct back down as week twos get closer to D7 and inward.  The WPO remains negative throughout, as well... So, for those that are fearing the warming implications of the above paragraph... you can probably alleviate some of that in knowing that the entire NP arc remains in the AA phase...and regardless of the AO, that usually means continued cold loading into the Canada.   

 

But then again .. if the 'relaxing' WPO/EPO negative phase state seen below proves to have legs ...then I think that at some point a -PNA/+AO/+NAO finally ends the party and gets the seasonal recovery well under way...

 

[N. OF PIKE]

I think your first sentence is perfect, we shall see where we go from here and exceptional post overall.

Of course as you said in your other post, IF IFwe get the January pattern again we would prob do better with Snow because to get shafted in that pattern like we did, was some bad luck as well.

If we flip the EPO and go into Morch this 3.5 week period will be looked back at with a certain mystique, like a youthful month long summer fling w a girl that set your heart a flutter , that was bookmarked betweeen having braces finally taken off and her disapproving father taking away her car. But you have some pictures to look back at that proves its validity and we will only need look as far as the record books.