Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Firstly, I am aware the January thread still has three days to its disposal, but with all the interest with the present events, combined with the relative quiescence of the next three days...there won't be much to add there. Much of this is pertains to interests as we move into the month of February. Multiple agency support for strenghthening PNA in the positive mode as we head into the month, and a period of relaxed flow (relative to what will likely take place for approximately 4 or 5 days beginning Friday) nearing the end of the first week as hinted by many operational guidance types, suggests the pattern will support an important eastern N/A amplitude/event. As to the other mass fields, the EPO is dropping and a new and/or oscillatory episodes of blocking in the NW Territories/Alaskan sector looks to evolve. This is also anchored by a very dominating AA phase of the north Pacific ... rooted back to a powerful -WPO ridge structure N -NE of Japan.. This translates to -EPO confindence, but interestingly, the PNA is positive during this period of time (the first two weeks of Feb..) Over the longer term, the correlation coefficient is opposing between the PNA and EPO. It makes sense from a basic conservation of mass consideration, in that it is difficult to sustain a western ridge and middle latitudes, AND a block above, in such a way that the a ridge would extend through the entire subtropical to polar latitudes domain space. Such that when the EPO is negative, the flow tends to cut underneath through the eastern Pacific; enters the longer term correlation of a -PNA underneath. But not always ... Sometimes the anti-correlation takes place, and we find anomalies are favored to occur when they do. In this case, a lot of cold transport into the 50th-70th band in Canada should be anticipated. What I also find intriguing is that the NAO is bouncing about a bit, and finds a brief albeit sub-stantial dip to suggest some of this cold would be. We don't outright need the -NAO, but it is known marker for cold loading into the OV/NE states. +NAO and we have a slow moving cut-off near or at historical/hysterical storm, so duh, it can happen. So that's the pattern... Specifically between a week and 10 days out, the flow is quite intriguing to me, and believe ...or perhaps won't be surprised, is best to say, if we begin tracking a more geographically inclusive event during that time. There are obviously systems prior ...such as Friday and perhaps a week from now. These are taking place along smaller band widths of mass field involvement, and are thus not as connected/causal to larger scale mass field changes. Obviously the following is subject to change .. but the general theme of the SPV lifting N during rising NAO, leaving less gradient and less shearing in the wake; erstwhile, the western ridge highly supported by the talking points above ... lends more confidence than usual for a meridional circulation type near the end of the first week of Feb... John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Damn Tip I love to read your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Monday has legs, nice teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Monday has legs, nice teleconnections. I'm not sure Friday won't be more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Monday on guidance looks like a swfe the way it is being presented. I wonder if that's what we end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Monday on guidance looks like a swfe the way it is being presented. I wonder if that's what we end up with?. Leaning that way, I said in the model thread that you folks in E MA could be looking at additional significant accumulations over the weekend being packed by taint and then locked in by freezing temps. Glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 No shortage of cold and storm chances on the Op 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 No shortage of cold and storm chances on the Op 12z GFS today. Yeah ... Also, perhaps more for the model thread, but I am not sure I am purchasing the GFS' weak sale wrt to the intermediate stream S/W amplitude it broke continuity with between the 00z and 12Z runs (Monday). Tracing the impulse(s) back, it smacks as a data sampling issue over the eastern Pacific -- now you see it, now you don't magic act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Tip your storm is on the 12z run @ Day 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 EC ensembles looked a little better than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Scoot's bosses chuck @WSI_Energy: As if #Juno wasn't enough, ECMWF EPS showing some promise for another big snow storm in the #Northeast next Mon-Tues http://t.co/uFEh0faARD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Scoot's bosses chuck @WSI_Energy: As if #Juno wasn't enough, ECMWF EPS showing some promise for another big snow storm in the #Northeast next Mon-Tues http://t.co/uFEh0faARD Is this the trailing energy behind the Sunday -Monday storm or this weekends storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ec ensembles at times try for some weak east based NAO ridging. Looks active too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Any sense of where we are headed late Feb into March? Morch or do we continue building our snowpack in March this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Any sense of where we are headed late Feb into March? Morch or do we continue building our snowpack in March this year?I'd be stunned if it were Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah I think we snow right thru April this year. No signs of breakdown in pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pretty epic Ens stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pretty epic Ens stuffbig signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 This could ...ironically, turn out to be the snowiest winters ever for the NE region if things break right. And while not a prediction - per se - indeed we are in a situation where things can actually have an OPPORTUNITY to break right... I mean, some winters/patterns ...? No. But this year... you know, last year we adopted this AA north Pacific thing with the -WPO to -EPO arc tendencies, and it's really still there. The difference this year is in the PNA behavior, and shows really what can be done when you have the primary cold loading off the EPO on your side, but combined with spatial-temporal "constructive" interference in the mean -- a situation that's evolved over the last 10 days -- with the PNA delivering a steady diet on the plus side. If it holds, ...yeah, really I don't see why we can't do a 3 to 6 day periodicity between events. Nickles and dimes welcome, with a block buster or two more not out of the question. The key on the D9 deal is thta the PNA is really rising in earnest during the weak leading up, and with the NAO yawing down and up, that's all a pretty strong argument for a corrective event. Yeah, Monday too -- but that's not really part of the latter idea. Monday's certainty vs not comes down to data sampling over the Pac imo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 John, agreed ......unlimited potential for the balance of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 John, agreed ......unlimited potential for the balance of the seasonone storm at a time we will evolve into what you thought back in November. I never wavered. Have faith in your comprehensive breakdown of the pattern, you nailed it. It was disappointing to see so many abandoned ship. I am glad you held on but there were moments where the lifejackets were in my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 John, agreed ......unlimited potential for the balance of the season Snow packs might get ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 one storm at a time we will evolve into what you thought back in November. I never wavered. Have faith in your comprehensive breakdown of the pattern, you nailed it. It was disappointing to see so many abandoned ship. I am glad you held on but there were moments where the lifejackets were in my hand. The reason why I made the decision to keep out of my outlook thread until the end of January was because I knew there was a good chance that we were going to go '05. If I had bolted into my thread and made adjustments, it would not have been with a clear mind because I was fraught with emotion (frustration). I'll update when the clock strikes midnight on Feb first, not a moment before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The reason why I made the decision to keep out of my outlook thread until the end of January was because I knew there was a good chance that we were going to go '05. If I had bolted into my thread and made adjustments, it would not have been with a clear mind because I was fraught with emotion (frustration). I'll update when the clock strikes midnight on Feb first, not a moment before. A testament to experience and getting better and better every year, Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 A testament to experience and getting better and better every year, Ray! Melting down, for me anyway, is a vehicle for the release of building frustration without incurring any negative consequences....ie such as the neutering of a very thorough seasonal outlook effort. Venting helps me remain objective when the lights get really bright, and $hit matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 one storm at a time we will evolve into what you thought back in November. I never wavered. Have faith in your comprehensive breakdown of the pattern, you nailed it. It was disappointing to see so many abandoned ship. I am glad you held on but there were moments where the lifejackets were in my hand.Me too.. Held on and stayed strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Me too.. Held on and stayed strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Melting down, for me anyway, is a vehicle for the release of building frustration without incurring any negative consequences....ie such as the neutering of a very thorough seasonal outlook effort. Venting helps me remain objective when the lights get really bright, and $hit matters. you did tell me twice Jan 05 was not walking in the door. I saw that analog 11 times in 7 days. Can't stress enough how much that means something is going to pop.Might not mean an exact replica but then again maybe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Me too.. Held on and stayed strongnickel and dimes persistence. You chastised me explicitly telling me there would be no KU this year. Well maybe how about 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 nickel and dimes persistence. You chastised me explicitly telling me there would be no KU this year. Well maybe how about 2-3Well in your winter poem.. What date did you list for a massive kU? You never answered me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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