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Everyone east of the Hudson take a look at your radars - you are about to receive steady heavy rain as a long stream of moderate to heavy rain is moving up the coast and extends south all the way to the Carolinas and the developing low dropping into the trough will develop further just off the coast and draw all this moisture into it.
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Received 3.75" of rain Tuesday. 2.55" on Monday for 2 day total of 6.30 inches of rain. Have had 13.73" so far for July.
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It does on the Hrrr, just takes like 8 to 12hrs. Edit HRRR takes a 996mb low into New Haven this run and 5" for most of Faifield County. -
I believe Supertyphoon Dolphin was up to 125kt/145mph today but is now down to 120kt/138mph. This is from about 12 hrs ago when the overall presentation looked the best -
2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
high risk replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It was interesting how the overnight runs looked pretty good, and then the 12Z suite (and a HRRR cycle or two after that) didn't look as good, before the HRRR locked on to the solution by late morning. And I'll be curious to see how many tornadoes are actually found. There were probably way more warnings than needed, but I'm wondering if they'll find more than the current count of one (good video of a tornado on the Eastern Shore north of Cambridge). Ultimately, we probably weren't far off from a more significant tornado event, but as you suggested in your post, the low-level winds were probably just a bit too weak, although I think that the low-level profile was slightly better than what the RRFS and GFS/ECMWF were suggesting last night. -
Is that stuff down off NJ and Delaware supposed to rotate up in here? -
Huge area of backbuikding over Bergen, headed this way.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
high risk replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The guidance trends were really interesting. Things were looking encouraging for fairly significant storms in the early runs on Tuesday, and then the cycles right after the raob data became available looked fairly lousy (as noted in your post). Then, the HRRR started locking in again on the more significant solutions. -
Latest HRRR has some decent rain for LI overnight and some intensification with the developing low. So far I think there's been a 30 second shower here.
- Today
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There’s some back building on radar.
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Always in warm months, never in cold months. -
It's going to be some very specific corridors of haves and have nots.
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Definitely a good soaker here. Sitting at about 3 inches. Some areas got twice that, which is pretty crazy. Had solid downpours about an hour ago. Haven't had to add water to the pool once this year, and in fact I've had to drain it several times, tomorrow included.
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Somebody is in for a rough morning. -
Currently the hardest rain of the day with some thunder.
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Absolutely nuking here, even heavier than before.
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WOR jack seems most probable in SNE to me. Seems to be the most likely pivot point for the banding. -
Yes, thats very close. Just walked the neighborhood and the end of Northclift near North hills has power. I can hear the cell tower generators running across the lake near lead mine. Based on the little damage I am seeing around here, I definitely think we didn't get as strong winds as you/they did just a half mile/mile east of here. Only small branches and debris on the ground over here.
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The meso low that formed over SNJ is really playing games with models. 00z runs showing a lot more precip over western CT.
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I hadn't been looking at the long lead seasonal models. I'm surprised at how cold they all are for Dec-March. The newest cfs is really cold. Even the long range Euro last I saw had us near normal. It's usually always warm in the long range.
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Going to end up going from almost nothing to over 2 inches of rain just like that tonight
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Very close by but not really doing anything on the lake. Just enjoying a quiet week with the family. Doing some hiking, mainly. Also ventured down to Andrews for their Rail Tour (rail bikes on old tracks!), which is really cool. I recommend it, if you’re ever in the area.
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Well I definitely blew that one but in a good way. I ended up chasing that first supercell from the VA line to Carrboro. It has some pretty awesome structure at times and definitely incredible rising motion with the updraft, intense lightning, and visible circulation.
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Duke street and stonehill have trees down near me. Im close to Millbrook and six forks in the lakemont area. Quiet out now so you can hear all the generators running.
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Likewise lol. It was actually the weather channel app that warned us before the EAS alert to our phones. I have a livesteam on my Facebook where you can see the clouds twisiting. The sky was a worse blueish green than last week! I swear we don't usually have weather this interesting, only when you visit LOL
