showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12Z Ensemble means like the idea of a nice back end thump for quite a few people even south and east of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i got about 2" in the city with ~250' elevation. it was basically all snow at my location just melty snow. And all I got was a dusting and I'm S of DCA. Elev around 180. The r/s line was painfully slow to reach me that day It was sort've weird. I flew into DCA that evening and drove to Richmond. There was like a dusting at the airport, but it seemed the farther south I got, the more snow. I remember remember south of Woodbridge around Stafford and Fredericksburg about 2-3" had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is somewhat like the March 1-2 09 event-- we had 1-3 inches region wide from the actual SLP and another 8-10 from the ULL. Biggest difference was the -10 h85 air that was screaming in from the west. We had a slushy 2 inches at my house round one and another 8.5 ull driven. Was pretty amazing-- 5 inches in 2 hours. I'm feel pretty good at 48 hours out and the NAM/GFS bring the ULL a little to far south for me. No model will do well with the banding set ups-- March 1 had a 2 band event that dumbed a ton over the NRV region that wasn't really forecasted. They were expecting 2-4 and got 8-10. i was thinking of this too. i think someone from your neck to west of ric to ezf gets a nice upper surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM has a beautiful track, but gives everyone mostly rain until you're up in the mountains. Ends as snow. Probably because the storm is weaker and can't get the cold air wrapped in. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html GGEM is often way too warm at the mid-levels. I would trust the Euro, GFS, and NAM temp profiles more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What if the cold is wasted? It rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 you gotta stop setting yourself up for easy failure. you'll get snow with little doubt. less than .35 total precip but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It rains and some of the salt is washing off of your car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What if the cold is wasted? "God gets quite irrate" Old Monty Python reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That was December 2003. I got about 9" of snow from the first part of the storm, in which warmer areas were completely screwed, and 6" from the second part. Yea. I think it was 2003. But I just went looking through newspaper archives to try to find it. The December 2003 storm looks like it happened on a Saturday and I am pretty sure this was a weekday cause I was going on a work assignment up there. Either way, one of the articles mentions how Howard County had 3 early season snowfalls that year, so it was likely one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and some of the salt is washing off of your car. And I get to use that new umbrella I got for Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and some of the salt is washing off of your car. But all the salt will hurt the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea. I think it was 2003. But I just went looking through newspaper archives to try to find it. The December 2003 storm looks like it happened on a Saturday and I am pretty sure this was a weekday cause I was going on a work assignment up there. Either way, one of the articles mentions how Howard County had 3 early season snowfalls that year, so it was likely one of those. That was a 2-part storm. The first part was a wet snow dump early Friday morning for the suburbs. The snow switched to drizzle for everyone before the coastal got cranking. Then, the Potomac River pretty much divided the significant accumulations from the coastal Friday night into Saturday morning from just an inch or two SW of the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone discuss why HPC is going with a coastal solution when all their SLP track clustering favors a HSE to the BM solution, which is perfect for I-95 storms (DCA-ILG)? I get the warm air advancement and the 'stale' cold and the lack of a blocking High to infuse fresh Canadian cold air in place as the SLP bombs out, but what is up with that forecast SLP track? Looks like HPC simply ignored all the clustering data? http://www.hpc.ncep....k_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea. I think it was 2003. But I just went looking through newspaper archives to try to find it. The December 2003 storm looks like it happened on a Saturday and I am pretty sure this was a weekday cause I was going on a work assignment up there. Either way, one of the articles mentions how Howard County had 3 early season snowfalls that year, so it was likely one of those. I just looked at my records from that storm. Up here i got 9.5". 3.5" fell on friday/ friday night December 5th, the other 6" fell Saturday December 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone discuss why HPC is going with a coastal solution when all their SLP track clustering favors a HSE to the BM solution, which is perfect for I-95 storms (DCA-ILG)? I get the warm air advancement and the 'stale' cold and the lack of a blocking High to infuse fresh Canadian cold air in place as the SLP bombs out, but what is up with that forecast SLP track? Looks like HPC simply ignored all the clustering data? http://www.hpc.ncep....k_ensembles.gif some euro hugging maybe .. it has been rather consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 anybody know what that trailing trough is all about on the 3 day Ukie? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For all the 12/5/2003 talk, here are some snow maps of that storm Part 1 Part 2 Downtown Baltimore got a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 less than .35 total precip but ok hug the euro till it drops your precip by half in 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Has this thread died? hug the euro till it drops your precip by half in 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Has this thread died? Give it another 10 minutes or so and it should pick up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Has this thread died? This isn't always a chatroom. Just give it some time. Its only been like 18-20 minutes since the last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 some euro hugging maybe .. it has been rather consistent That's exactly what they are doing: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 [randy] the euro will be epic [/randy] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's exactly what they are doing: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html link seems broken. hard not to. even tho people have given the euro grief of late it's been the leader here all along imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 [randy] the euro will be epic [/randy] It will certainly be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 [randy] the euro will be epic [/randy] Looks warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't remember who posted earlier about "fight fight fight" but it will likely be the case. There will be a fierce battlezone with the R/S line and surface temps cold enough to accumulate. There is no way a model nails the battlezone. It's been a while since we've seen a storm like this. The obs thread is going to great for some and heartbreaking for others. I live in Rockville so I expect to get enough slop to be happy but my friends in Mt Airy are going to make me jealous. Of course, maybe I-95 ends up being the dividing line for good snow vs meh. Nowcasting is going to be a bit more fun with this than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Came across this elsewhere. Thought you may find it interesting... http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/near_rain-snow_line_for_signfi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Came across this elsewhere. Thought you may find it interesting... <sniP> You could just link the Capital Weather Gang article instead of the whole copy and paste thing Also - FYI... both Ian and usedtobe write articles for CWG. In case you weren't aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 link seems broken. hard not to. even tho people have given the euro grief of late it's been the leader here all along imo. Sorry. Try it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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