WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF plume info for Baltimore: Only 3 members keep it all rain. Mean of 0.59" of rain and .33" of snow. Maxes of 1.05" rain and 1.09" snow. Looks like most members predict changeover time around 21z on Wednesday. Mean total precip is 0.93". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 15z SREF -- 850 0c line Blue Ridge at 54... just east of I-95 hr 57 Hell of a three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 no watches hoisted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF plume info for Baltimore: Only 3 members keep it all rain. Mean of 0.59" of rain and .33" of snow. Maxes of 1.05" rain and 1.09" snow. Looks like most members predict changeover time around 21z on Wednesday. Mean total precip is 0.93". Can you get that info for APG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hell of a three hours. Sounds like that's when everyone changes over per the plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LWX afternoon update- DC area gets "snow in the morning" Weds., followed by "Rain", with a near 100% chance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hr 57-69 precip per SREFs... this is after the 850 0c line crosses DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF plume info for Baltimore: Only 3 members keep it all rain. Mean of 0.59" of rain and .33" of snow. Maxes of 1.05" rain and 1.09" snow. Looks like most members predict changeover time around 21z on Wednesday. Mean total precip is 0.93". sounds OK by me at this point if anything, we saw a trend toward a colder solution today we don't need much to turn this into a decent snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My house is about 950 ft---75 miles east is 500 feet or so. That's going to help you for sure. Hopfully surface winds stay N-E and no southerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LWX afternoon update- DC area gets "snow in the morning" Weds., followed by "Rain", with a near 100% chance of it. The zones are kind of weird... especially S MD. Rain likely tuesday night... snow WED morning.. back to rain in the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can you get that info for APG? No...only places are Baltimore, Cumberland, Oakland, Pax River and Salisbury. DC info: 7 members keep it all rain. Mean rain is 1.12", mean snow .11". Max snow .65". Changeover looks at/just after 00z on Thursday. Sterling info: 6 members all rain. Mean rain .99", mean snow .21". Max snow .91". Bigger range on changeover time...21-03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounds like that's when everyone changes over per the plumes. Here's the plume diagram for any interested The mean snowfall is around .30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAMis running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is running now. NAM you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM you mean Yea, I fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The sref plume I posted was from 09Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 my concern is the usual drift north at 500. we have time for it to line up better with areas that get more snow or all snow throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm liking your enthusiasm. I am having a tough time with this one. Everyone, keeps asking me what I am thinking and I am just not sure. This has been a tough forecast. A little beyond my knowledge so I'm sticking with you. You thinking 4-8" for Roanoke as well. NRV being the jackpot? I love where we're sitting back here in SW VA-- My blog has been updated to reflect a call of 4-8 inches. having nothing but a reputation at stake is good-- we have plenty of wiggle room for the late north trend since the ULL low snows start well over 100 miles to my S and SW. (According to the EC) * Noting that the north trend would be more like the NOT DIGGING as deep trend* I suspect if the 0z data falls in line like the GFS/EC for our region, we go under watches tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The first watches for the system are now up in Eastern Kentucky over to the VA state line. Mentions the possibility of heavy wet snow of 4-10 inches over that way making driving particularly hazardous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hartford is having a heck of a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like this nam will be wetter than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm liking your enthusiasm. I am having a tough time with this one. Everyone, keeps asking me what I am thinking and I am just not sure. This has been a tough forecast. A little beyond my knowledge so I'm sticking with you. You thinking 4-8" for Roanoke as well. NRV being the jackpot? Yes, exactly--- NRV sees more like 6-12 inches. Maybe I crash and burn, but I like the data and I've compensated for the north drift. Maybe temps get me, but I;ll take that risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850 0c line at 42 per 18z NAM is south of us after going north of us at 36... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lwx disco is pretty yawn inducing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0c line at 42 per 18z NAM is south of us after going north of us at 36... The sounding at DCA at 48hs is one that supports snow, barely but would be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes, exactly--- NRV sees more like 6-12 inches. Maybe I crash and burn, but I like the data and I've compensated for the north drift. Maybe temps get me, but I;ll take that risk. you should like this .72 in 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lwx disco is pretty yawn inducing Maybe they've touched the stove one too many times this winter and are tired of getting burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 you should like this .72 in 3 hours! Holy H1ll-- is that the 18z nam?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lwx disco is pretty yawn inducing With Wes and company posting I see no reason to bother with the LWX disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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