PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DCA slammed at 54HR, but surface temps are marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 man if only we were seeing this around now tomorrow. we do seem to be locking and loading tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know about 4" at DCA, they run so warm and low on snowfall that if they get 4" the rest of DC metro would probably average 7". Possible but right now I might not be that bullish.... I was planning on making some real predictions tonight after the 0z runs but right now if I had to give an over under for some select locations DCA: 2.5 IAD: 4.5 BWI: 3.5 JYO: 5.5 HGR: 8 Winchester: 8 FDK: 7 Phin: 5.5 Mt. Hoffman: 8 Is that an actual location or is that named after you? The 6k mountain near DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like we get very little precip before temps crash. Drizzle to thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About an inch of QPF this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pounded at 54, but still too warm Surface, maybe, but probably not by much. 850's look plenty cold enough, but have to see other layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 More at 60HR. Would be a big hit with a little rain up-front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks slightly warmer in 2m this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DCA slammed at 54HR, but surface temps are marginal. But the sun will have set so they should be okay. Seriously, though...yeah looks great, but this scenario amounts to "treading the needle" on several fronts...thermal profile, exact H5 track and timing, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Surface, maybe, but probably not by much. 850's look plenty cold enough, but have to see other layers If it comes down as hard as the GFS is advertising it will be snow. A wet snow that cakes on everything, but snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 man if only we were seeing this around now tomorrow. we do seem to be locking and loading tho. It's an impressive run. looks like it has trended towards the nam though it starts warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pounded at 54, but still too warm ? surface temps would be mid 30's for central md @ 54.. and with that much coming down along with driving northerly winds, accumulation especially on grassy surfaces is definately possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 man if only we were seeing this around now tomorrow. we do seem to be locking and loading tho. Agreed...like Phin says, it looks like our main show comes from that second max I was talking about this AM...its becoming a bigger feature around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm just NE (10 miles) of DC, and I like hour 60 a lot. Another degree or so and I am solid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Let's see if we can break 50 pages in 24 hours 18z GFS praises: (Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hour 54 is easy on the eyes I can assure you that not all of it falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks slightly warmer in 2m this run. Can you post the surface temp map from the 12Z GGEM ensemble mean, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 34-36 surface at 54hrs, I dont know, still may be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 going off my sv snowfall maps for the gfs, dc and area gets bullseyed with 8-12 on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Painfully close on thermals with the GFS. Would be a mixture of rain/snow under light showers and full blown massive wet snow under heavier showers near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A bit more at hour 60. I'm liking this. Kinda hard not to start believing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 going off my sv snowfall maps for the gfs, dc and area gets bullseyed with 8-12 on the gfs WHAT?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 going off my sv snowfall maps for the gfs, dc and area gets bullseyed with 8-12 on the gfs 8-12"? I think that would be a stretch on the GFS verbatim--its thermals are not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can assure you that not all of it falls as snow. It all depends on when the temps bomb. Models are never very good at resolving that 60 hours out. This run could be a big hit not far NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed...like Phin says, it looks like our main show comes from that second max I was talking about this AM...its becoming a bigger feature around these parts the 500 feature has been very good for like 48+ hrs now on the gfs/euro save a run or two here and there. it would be a shame to thread the needle for 2+ days then not thread it but i think we've got a decent shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WHAT?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS shows some snow from hour 54 to about hour 64 in the Balto/Wash area. 850 temps are marginally OK and the 540 thickness slides south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For the first time since last winter..... I am actually really excited about this. 4312 things could still go wrong, but I've got faith. These other storms this winter have been way too stressful to enjoy tracking (and certainly the storm itself wasn't as nice as it coulda been!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Painfully close on thermals with the GFS. Would be a mixture of rain/snow under light showers and full blown massive wet snow under heavier showers near DC. We don't get much light stuff. It looks to me like it rolls in, dumps, and then leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Painfully close on thermals with the GFS. Would be a mixture of rain/snow under light showers and full blown massive wet snow under heavier showers near DC. By 54 hrs the sounding is a snow sounding, the only place it's above freezing is right at the surface. After 54hrs, its easily snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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