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Ender

Meteorologist
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About Ender

  • Birthday 08/01/1970

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  • Location:
    High atop Mt. Selma (Lucketts)
  • Interests
    Snow.

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  1. I only glanced at the ENSO states with respect to the various years in each set. The set of pre-November 20th snow measurement years had only a few winters that were not in a definitively warm or cold state with many of those warm state ENSO years. As you point out the sample size becomes very small. The years that have a fist measurable snowfall between the 20th and 30th, however, didn't have much in the way of an ENSO lean. Some were cold state, some were warm, some had just transitioned from warm to cold of equal magnitudes, some were second year cold, some were neutral. At least that's the take away from my casual review for things that would jump out at me.
  2. Or...hope for nothing. Of the handful of winters that saw measurable snowfall at IAD or Baltimore before November 20th only two had more than "normal" snowfall for the season while four were borderline abysmal: Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date Amount Winter Season Dec - Mar Snowfall 10/10/79 1.3 79-80 25.5 10/19/72 0.1 72-73 1.5 10/29/11 0.6 11-12 3.1 11/5/62 0.3 62-63 20.3 11/6/53 5.9 53-54 16.2 11/7/60 0.2 60-61 46.3 11/10/68 1.6 68-69 17.7 11/11/87 5.3 87-88 11.4 11/12/76 0.4 76-77 10.2 11/14/96 0.7 96-97 17.1 11/19/55 2 55-56 17.1 Oh and while five of those winters aren't truly abysmal (the ones with Dec - Mar snowfalls of 16" - 20"), they kinda sort'a were. Three of those five had a only one snowfall of more than 3" in Dec - Mar with multiple .5" - 2.x" snowfalls making up the balance. The other two not truly abysmal winters...each had two snowfalls between 3" and 7"...with multiple .5" to 1.5" snowfalls. On a brighter note, fourteen Novembers have had their earliest measurable snow between the 20th and 30th of November. Those...turn out somewhat happier: Earliest Pre-Dec Snowfall Date Amount Winter Season Dec - Mar Snowfall 11/20/61 3.2 61-62 32 11/22/89 2.4 89-90 26.8 11/23/95 0.3 95-96 61.6 11/23/05 0.3 05-06 13.5 11/24/71 2.9 71-72 17.5 11/24/81 0.9 81-82 28.6 11/25/50 0.5 50-51 5.7 11/25/83 0.3 83-84 22.1 11/27/77 0.1 77-78 27.3 11/27/78 4 78-79 36.6 11/29/66 0.1 66-67 44.3 11/30/52 2.8 52-53 9 11/30/64 0.2 64-65 16.1 11/30/67 11.4 67-68 19.1
  3. It speeds up, then slows down, by a few milliseconds every six years or so.
  4. 1958 was an amazing year, and not just March of course, plus it's a popular analog the last week or so. Nonetheless in some ways March has advantages over January, namely in the opportunity for systems to cutoff, or nearly so, off the east coast. That's somewhat harder to accomplish this time of year. Still, it's exciting to see that year, among others, showing up in our analogs.
  5. I don't think that a perfect track could salvage this. It's very, very hard to get it to snow along the coastal plain before the cold air is entrenched. Particularly so for those of us south of NY. Generally, if you're relying on "just in time cold" or dynamic cooling you're going to be disappointed east of the mountains. When in doubt, leave it out.... Anyhow, there's enough slack in the E US that, from an analog perspective, the 23rd - 25th looks intriguing. But...it's slack filled with modified continental and Pacific air. So, promising for strong cyclogenisis with "precipitation". Any sort of "pattern change" antecedent cyclone should follow the typical scenario: several model runs that point to the potential for cold racing to the coast followed by a southern style Miller-B transition to taunt us, but those Miller-B's are pretty rare, and we'll all k know that as we see those runs. Then we'll close in on the date (say 6 - 7 days out) and models will correct the pace of the cold air and switch to a more typical Miller-B transfer from somewhere in the nothern OV or eastern GL region to off the NJ coast. Thereafter our cold arrives...and entrenches...and the real vigilance can begin.
  6. Thank you, and you're right. It's tedious as hell.
  7. So, of 20 winters in which the QBO is positive in November and stays positive into February: Six had a January that was at least 1.5F above normal. All six were followed by a February that was at or below normal: two were between -.1F and -1.3F of normal and the other four averaged 5.8F below normal. All six had Feb snowfall of at least 8.8", the average was 15.2". Only four had a December and a January that were at least 1.5F above normal: The subsequent February averaged 3.1F below and March 2.3F below normal. February in those four years averaged 16.2" of snow (9.8", 10.7", 27.2" and 16.9") Removing some of the constraints and looking at the full set of 20 winters and comparing them to the 48 non "QBO stays positive Nov - Feb" winters December showed a normal distribution of snowless, versus <2" or >6" snow totals. January deviated from the non +QBO Winter distribution. 20% of the non +QBO winters had 2" or less while 50% of the 20 +QBO winters did. 35% of the non +QBO winters less than 4", but 60% of the +QBO winders did. For the month of February: 44% of non +QBO winters had less than 2" of snow and 35% of the 20 +QBO winters did. 60% of non +QBO winters had less than 4" of snow, but only 35% of the +QBO Winters did. 60% of the +QBO Winter's Februaries had 8.8" or more, 50% had more than ~10" and 40% had more than about 15". That compares to only seven of 48, or 15% of the non +QBO Winter's Feb's getting more than 8.8" and five winters, 10%, with more than 12". While Dulles' average February snowfall is 7", the non +QBO winters only had a 31% chance of getting at least 7" in the month (as opposed to 60% for +QBO Winters) and they had a 63% chance of recording less than 5" in the month. Thus in a winter that has not had a +QBO from November into February there's a better chance that we'll see less than 5" than there is a chance of more than ~9" in a +QBO winter February. March: 67% of non +QBO winters will have less than 2" in March and 50% will in the +QBO winters 27% chance of more than 6" in a non +QBO winter as opposed to a 40% chance in the +QBO set. 10% of non +QBO winters get more than 10" of snow in March and only one of 48 such winters saw more than 11", while 25% of the +QBO set had more than 13". NOTE: it was necessary to use Baltimore's observations as a supplement to the IAD records for 1948 - 1962 in order to get a history that covered the whole QBO reanalysis period that begins in 1948.
  8. I'm curious to see what Jan 27th - 30th yeilds, but I suspect you're right; we have to wait until February. It's better than waiting until December, though.
  9. The 6Z GFS is encouraging on multiple fronts. Most notably: positive height anomalies over the pole...ridging extending up from the Caspian to the pole...positive anomaly over Greenland...the beginnings of what looks like it might become a very impressive ridge up through the GOA, and then eventual connection to the Caspian ridge for cross-polar flow.
  10. I remain confident that February into at least mid-March will be impressively cold. Not Feb/Mar 2015 impressive, it's hard to beat a once in a 134 year February, but still cold. I've seen little in the last couple weeks to make me doubt that at least the first few weeks of February won't end up quite cold. Now, snow... It's interesting this winter is the second in a row with fairly high QBO index values. Well, no, just plain high. I don't see any prior back to back years with Oct - Dec values of >10. In fact, outside of the late 1940s, I'm not finding any consecutive years with any three month period wherein the QBO was either +5 or -5 for all three corresponding months in the two years. That led me to do some more digging and suffice it to say, I think February will certainly have something to plow. One other detail stands out, and this one surprised me, if you want a cold end to winter around here then get the QBO to switch from W to E during the Nov - Feb period. However if you want snow, the very last thing you want to see is a QBO flip from November to Feb. That'd be a flip from positive to negative or negative to positive. All but one of 15 of those such years were basically awful as they averaged 2.6" in February. The one spectacular February (2003) was a QBO flip thats best described as "slow and gentle" in magnitude. Anyhow, hope to finish reviewing these tables tomorrow.
  11. I was in Saratoga Springs for the North Eastern Storm Conference (Student AMS LSC hosted). I was a sophomore I think. We had a great deal of snow; 40 some inches. Winds sustained in the 45+ for a while there. I watched as a huge Cumberland Farms like gas station lost its gigantic covered pump station roof, you know those big flat things that cover six rows of gas pumps. The thing was lifting up in the air and smacking back down over and over for the better part of an hour before it finally started to get disassembled sheet by sheet. The snow ended and it was cold and windy as s--- the next morning. Jim Cantori, my college roommate (Bob) and I were out in the parking lot at about 7am shoveling out all the older guest's cars so they could get on the road (without a heart attack). We probably shoveled out a good 30 or so cars. Probably doesn't seem like much, but 43" of snow and insane gusts, along with plowed in walls of snow is quite a chore. It was an amazing time. Lyndon had an attendance policy, though I never heard of it enforced outside of test/quiz/exam days. The morning after the blizzard was a class day, however, and a bunch of us had tests for late that morning. I remember it was like pulling teeth to get the president of Lyndon to forgive classes for us that day (alternative would have been a zero on the exams). She couldn't believe that the roads were so bad that we couldn't get back to NE VT in time. She finally relented and the students that had attended the conference were allowed to take their missed exams the next morning. http://www.saratogian.com/general-news/20130316/blizzard-of-93-which-occurred-20-years-ago-last-week-made-for-an-epic-weather-event-with-area-residents-memories-of-the-storm
  12. The MJO looks to be progressing rather quickly through 7 and 8 and then into 1 and 2, right? The problem is it's been decidedly low amplitude this season. It's been an almost useless index. If I'm remembering correctly, however, the upcoming P1 and P2 amplitude is about as high and amplitude as we've seen this winter?
  13. Yeah, you definitely don't want a trough over AK. The death nail, however, is when a strong PV sets up shop over AK. When that happens you can count on losing the next six weeks easily (if not the entire winter).
  14. It's interesting that the set of "snowy February" analog years, now based on five days of GFS, GEFS, and GGEM results, don't seem to have remarkable NAO or PNA averages for the month. They're all freaking cold as in 5F - 8F below longterm average, but the monthly NAOs range from -.5 to +.5 and average at -.1. The PNAs range from -.11 to 1.7 but average out at only .4. The AO, however, is either neutral or negative with an average of -.9.
  15. That's the one I was referring to, but it's literally just the 12Z run. There've been multiple single cycle runs that looked far colder and multiple cycles that looked warmer. The Euro weeklies have been doing much the same lately.